By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
Give the Florida Panthers some credit while you can.
Have they won 65 games this season? No. Did they repeat the caliber of last season’s Presidents’ Trophy? Also no. Did they score almost twice as many goals as their opponents? Still no. Their first-round opponents did all of that in Boston. All in all, the news in South Florida could be better.
What the Panthers managed, however, was a season-ending kick that brought their record a little more in line with the signs they had shown since the fall and provided some low-quality throwbacks to 2021-22. In an Eastern Conference wildcard race that featured three badly flawed teams, a late push would always be enough for… someone. In a way, the place should have belonged to Florida from the start.
Your reward? One of the great regular-season juggernauts in recent history.
The chance
As expected, this is leaning heavily in Boston’s favor, but perhaps not as much as some might expect.
The best team in the league meets a Panthers team that made the playoffs out of thin air this season – but is also a team that won the Presidents’ Trophy last season. You obviously haven’t looked closely at this version, but there’s some respect for that potential. The Panthers are far more talented than a typical wildcard team.
But the Bruins are also far more talented than a typical frontrunner. Boston comes into the playoffs as the best team this model has ever seen (since 2010), and that means an outsized chance of progressing regardless of opponent. There are some to suggest the last record team is getting excited in the first round as a precaution, but the Bruins are looking much stronger overall. Boston’s odds here are six percentage points higher than Tampa Bay’s in 2019.
That doesn’t mean the Panthers are lying in wait – 27 percent is a very real chance. Flip a coin twice and Florida’s odds are the odds of getting two heads in a row. That is something. Still, the Bruins should take care of business here.
The payment
Offensively, Boston ranks among the top 10 teams at five against five. They have exceeded expectations all year to take their actual goalscoring average to second place. The Bruins’ shot generation tends to be more of a rush and is aided by their passing ability.
Few can stack defensively. The Bruins conceded the fifth-lowest shot total against, are the second-best team when it comes to confining good chances to only the Hurricanes, and conceded the fewest goals. Boston is one of the best teams at controlling the neutral zone and, according to Corey Sznajder’s record, allows the lowest odds of getting into the zone.
And that’s what makes such an interesting matchup. Florida is so good offensively. This is a top three team in terms of shots, expected goals and actual goals at five against five. The quality of their chances didn’t always match the scorer chart, despite this squad’s finishing talent.
One big difference is that these aren’t last year’s Panthers, who lived and died through the blade of their haste-based style. This is a side with one of the most balanced offensive styles between their transition efforts and sustained pressure. And they are among the best when it comes to making dangerous passes.
Can that penetrate Boston’s defenses? That’s the question of this duel, especially since Florida aren’t nearly as strong and they need to find a way to create more than they give up.
The Panthers are doing better on the power play, but Boston has more to show for it. However, will Florida consistently be able to build the power play against the Bruins’ penalty shootouts? That’s a definite advantage for the record team that has an elite power kill. No one allowed fewer chances than Boston this year, and they can disrupt power-play formations and drift down the ice. A lack of powerplay success devastated Florida last year and could become a problem again. It hurts even more that their penalty allowed more than Boston’s and conceded more goals than expected.
The big question
Can luck reverse course for both Boston and Florida in this series?
Hockey is a game that is often heavily influenced by luck. A good rebound here and a bad rebound there can dictate the outcome of a single game and have an outsized impact on a team’s season.
But the playoffs are a new season and luck can change. A team that has had a lot of luck throughout the season might have a hard time keeping the magic going. An unlucky team might find their own magic.
None of this is to say that the Bruins are where they are just because of luck — they’re the best team in the league for a reason. Or that the Panthers are only where they are because they were unlucky — they were a wildcard team for a reason. Teams create their own happiness. But luck played a role in the size of their season’s trajectory, and possible regression could be a factor making this series much closer.
On goal difference, these two teams are not close. Boston is plus-127, Florida is plus-16.
By the expected goal difference? Much closer. Boston drops to plus-43 while Florida shoots up to plus-39. Very close.
Based on the range between actual and expected, Florida’s difference of minus 23 was one of the lowest by a playoff team in an analytics era. Boston’s plus-84 was the highest, surpassing the Capitals by eight goals more than expected in 2016-17. Incidentally, the 2018-19 Lightning weren’t far behind at plus 73. If you’re wondering about the “Curse of the Presidents’ Trophy,” here might be a reason – just winning the Presidents’ Trophy usually takes a bit of luck.
“Expected by whom” is the right question to ask here as the public models of expected goals are far from perfect. They’re missing a lot of things that have made the Bruins more likely to exceed expectations this season and made Florida less likely. There’s valuable information in there, and that’s why the Bruins are big favorites in this series.
But the looming threat of regression for both sides is why the Bruins aren’t stronger favorites. Their net rating is plus-91, with the model believing they can’t possibly be a true plus-127 team. Florida is the opposite, jumping to plus-53, with the model having trouble believing that Florida was only plus-16. None of the changes are as drastic as each team’s expected goals would suggest, but it’s enough to easily close the gap. Enough to give Florida a shot.
Regression isn’t an immediate activity, and just because the two teams have had mutual luck in 82 games doesn’t mean the switch will be flipped in the next seven. It’s just something to consider in a seven-game series where how the puck bounces means a lot.
The x factor
Who’s in the Net for Florida?
The Panthers aren’t the only playoff team with a goaltender controversy in Game 1, but theirs may be the least likely. Alex Lyon, a 30-year-old journeyman who started the season as Florida’s No. 3, posted a 6-1-1 with a .943 save and a league-best 14.27 over the March 29 after taking the helm from Sergei Bobrovsky Goals Beyond Expectations It was heroic stuff from a player who had only played 24 NHL games this year. The Panthers are more than likely booking tee times without him.
However, now Bobrovsky has recovered from his illness – he supported Lyon in the final week of the regular season – and may be ready to reclaim the net. Lyon hadn’t shown much weakness until Game 82, when they conceded four goals on 34 shots for the Hurricanes and suffered their first regular loss since January. Depending on your perspective, he either made Paul Maurice’s decision a little easier or a little more complicated. The model favors Bobrovsky, who tossed Florida’s series win probability by three with him on the lineup despite his .901 saving percentage and the No. 42 GSAx in the league in 2022-23. Last season’s solid game goes a long way.
On the other hand, apart from the result against Carolina, Lyon has a distinct “hot goalkeeping quality” that speaks for him. To beat the Bruins would require something unexpected, if not remarkable. What Maurice values could be the difference between a competitive series and something much less.
The rosters
Offensive and Defensive Value Explainer
It would be unfair to expect a group of skaters to compete so well against the Bostons. Not the season they had and not the way they had it. Any discussion of them focuses on the holeless, more-is-more approach to team building that they’ve adopted over the past year. It’s one thing trying to put together a roster with no weaknesses. It’s another to pull it off – and we’ve seen that here.
So, no, there aren’t many eight-seeds capable of rivaling the most dominant regular-season team in the history of the sport. However, give the Panthers credit. They come as close as you can reasonably expect. Do they end up falling short? Naturally. Will they end up falling short? Probably. But chances are it’s going to be a little tighter than you think.
We start with Florida’s top line (Aleksander Barkov between Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart), a decent approximation of Boston’s. That also goes beyond the obvious Barkov-Patrice Bergeron comparisons, but it’s worth reiterating how much fun head-to-head combat there should be. Two generations of Selke dominance against each other? Yes, please. Offensively, Bergeron has aged into a shoot-first sort of role, while Barkov is a more well-rounded offensive weapon, but the matchup still feels like a version of the Pointing Spiderman meme is brought to life.
Verhaeghe has some Brad Marchand-like tendencies as a front row winger. You’ll see a lot of dangerous passes from him, at 2.46/60 on Corey Sznjader’s data. At 3.75, Marchand is of course elite-elite in this department. From a five-on-five point production standpoint, Verhaeghe even beat him (52 to 32).
But despite all that, Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart’s problem is directly comparable to that of the rest of the Panthers – they are territorially dominant, controlling more than 60 percent of shots and expected goals on the ice and struggling to reach the finish line. Her 1.73 actual goals/60 is more than a full goal short of her expected number. Compare that to Marchand-Bergeron-Jake DeBrusk’s 3.58 goals/60 and you’ll see that there’s a lot of ground to be made up through luck and regression. A first line like Florida’s would be a strength in most matchups. This one here? Eh
The same can be said about Tkachuk’s lineage. He didn’t just put in another 100-point season, this time without Johnny Gaudreau as a linemate. He had a full-fledged face-of-the-franchise campaign of his own that should no doubt make him a Hart finalist. Tkachuk is a versatile offensive player of the kind you’ll find in the NHL as a winger, sixth overall in the league and five-for-five points, elite at creating chances for both himself and his teammates. Only Connor McDavid has beaten him on average game score (1.99 to 1.82). Right behind him in those stats? Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon and Jason Robertson. Offensively, he was unsurpassed in the Analytics era for his impact on expected and actual goals this season, and that’s why he comes into this series with the second-highest offensive rating in the league, behind only McDavid.
Despite all that, his Bruins counterpart could well make his presence fatal. David Pastrnak led the league with 38 consistent goals, part of his 61 overall. A lineup that can afford to play Tkachuk away from Barkov would normally be a cheat code. It’s closer to a break-even proposition here, especially when Sam Bennett’s status is in doubt.
If Florida has an advantage in the forward group, it’s because Anthony Duclair has shown signs of breaking the gridlock. He missed the first 62 games of the season with an Achilles tendon injury, and his finishing touches were slow to come back. He’s shooting a remarkably low 4.7 percent, and that includes the Game 82 goal he scored against Carolina. During his 2021/22 30-goal season, few players in the league were more effective at converting dangerous passes into shots (2.99 HD passes shots/60) and he averaged almost 19 percent overall. At his best, he’s a dangerous rush player with real finishing skills. Getting that from the third row — or at all — would be a huge win for the Panthers. And even then, Boston’s third line boasts its fourth-best scorer in Pavel Zacha, a return from LTIR Taylor Hall, and a version of Charlie Coyle who just hit 15 five-a-side.
Where things will most realistically fall apart for Florida is on defense. Boston has two players who could receive Norris votes. Charlie McAvoy remains a balanced, productive No. 1 man for all situations — but we’ve grown to expect that. That’s a little less true of Hampus Lindholm, but this season he’s the more deserving candidate. With him on the ice at five-a-side, Boston controls nearly 69 percent of goals scored, compared to 56.5 percent expected. Most of this is due to a 0.75 gap between actual and expected goals conceded. You can bet Lindholm is a big reason why. The duo are both in the top 10 defenders in the entire league according to their net ratings.
Other seasons, Florida could say they had their own Norris-type defenseman to even things out. Aaron Ekblad is in the middle of a mess, even as the team as a whole is starting to normalize. He has the worst scoring record (actual and expected) of any Florida defenseman. The Panthers allow more goals with him on the ice at full throttle. He, along with Gustav Forsling, has defensive records that are poor for the first pair of any playoff contender, let alone one poised to face the Bruins. Ekblad’s defensive rating of minus four is the lowest of any top defender in this playoff.
That’s an issue across the board with a top 4 that’s at minus 10 defensively. The second worst playoff top four is the Winnipegs, down two. That’s a big difference, especially in this matchup against a Bruins team where the top 4 is plus-18 and the entire group is above average.
Florida’s advantage at defenders was the performance they receive from Brandon Montour on both balanced strength (43 points) and power play (30). That’s been enough to dodge some dubious defensive shots, and it would give them a second-pair advantage in many instances. Just not against Lindholm and Brandon Carlo.
You should feel a theme. We’ll extend to the third pair the idea that on paper Boston can neutralize most teams’ strengths. Florida got decent defensive minutes from Radko Gudas and Josh Mahura (1.96 GA/60). One of her peers is Dmitry Orlov, a Washington-based deadline acquisition who would get 22 minutes a night with a lot of top pairs. What to do with it? It’s up to Paul Maurice to find out.
The key matchup
Brad Marchand vs. Matthew Tkachuk
One of the most exciting matchups in this series is a battle between two pests. It’s Matthew Tkachuk versus Brad Marchand, two elite talents who are some of the most frustrating skaters to play against.
It was an MVP season for Tkachuk in his debut season in Florida. He proved that he wasn’t just a product of Gaudreau and that he could run his own line. The ability is the highlight of his game, but it’s not all that makes him valuable. There’s the physical aspect and bite he brings to a lineup. Penalties may apply – 28 minors to be exact this year. But the excitement of his opponents leads to power plays. He drew 36 this year, which ranks eighth in the league.
From one Rat King to another, this is something Marchand has mastered. The winger can be a two-way force. He’s an offensive threat and a high-end defensive striker, which also translates into penalties. That is, when he’s not in the box. Discipline was something Marchand always had to balance, even in the playoffs. But when he’s at his best, he frustrates his opponents so much they end up in the box and he on the power play. Despite missing nine games, he still finished third on penalties.
What antics does this series hold? And where will the impact be strongest? Tkachuk proved last year that he can succeed in the playoffs and is expected to continue to do so. Marchand is no different – he can take his game and pot-stirring to the next level when the pressure is on. Now it’s all down to who can bring the spice and production to this series and wear the Rat King’s crown in Round 2.
The final result
This is Boston’s losing streak. You know that. We know that. Everyone knows that. The Bruins are the best team of all time and are proving it this season with their record for wins and points in one season – a 65-12-5 record that still stands doesn’t appear real even after typing it up. It didn’t take you 3,000 words and some charts to figure that out.
But if you think the Bruins have a chance of winning the trophy this year, just know that their chances of doing so (25 percent) are actually lower than their chances of losing that series (27 percent). Ice hockey is a chaotic game where anything can happen. There really are no guarantees, not in this sport. The playoffs are a brand new ball game and the Panthers won’t bow to it anytime soon. There is some real talent on this site and they will fight back.
While this is deservedly one of the most one-sided series of round ones, it’s probably tighter than some might think.
references
How these projections work
How these projections fared last season
Understand projection uncertainty
resources
Ice hockey in transition
Natural statistics trick
Ice Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo: Jason Mowry / USA Today)