The NFL playoffs are finally here and it's time to find out who is the best of the best. The journey begins on Saturday with what we affectionately call “Super Wild Card Weekend.” CJ Stroud takes on Joe Flacco, Tyreek Hill returns to Kansas City, Mike McCarthy hosts his former team, while Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff take on their former clubs in what is sure to be a memorable Motor City showdown.
Before postseason football is even played, let's try to predict the entire NFL playoffs. Are the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers destined to meet in Vegas as the NFL writers predicted in their color scheme? Could Patrick Mahomes lead a Kansas City Chiefs rebound and return to the Big Game? Maybe the Buffalo Bills will shock the world and come to Las Vegas. Let's explore.
Odds courtesy of SportsLine Consensus
Super Wildcard weekend
(5) Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at (4) Houston Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try it for free)
Kudos to the Texans, who completed a turnaround from worst to first in the AFC South after finishing last in 2022 with the win. Stroud, named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, led the league in passing yards per game (273.9). and is first in EPA/dropback vs. zone coverage this season. Sounds great, except the Browns play-man coverage has the highest rate in the NFL (41%).
The Browns defense could help Cleveland make a legitimate run. They allowed the fewest yards per game (270.0) since the 2014 Seattle Seahawks made it to the Super Bowl. Cleveland had the highest three-and-out percentage (48.6%) since the 2005 Tennessee Titans, the fewest yards per drive allowed (20.7) since the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers, and the fewest first downs allowed per game (14, 9) since the New York 2009 Jets. This defense may contain Stroud and Nico Collins.
As for the Browns offense, Texans fans probably still have nightmares about what Flacco and Amari Cooper did to them earlier this year. In a dominant win, Flacco completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while Cooper caught 11 passes for a franchise-record 265 yards and two touchdowns, becoming the second player in NFL history to who scored 200-200 yards. Yard receiving game for three different teams.
Flacco is tied with Tom Brady for the most away playoff wins by a starting quarterback in NFL history with seven. He has also covered the spread in seven straight playoff starts, which is the longest streak by a quarterback in the last 25 seasons. Give me the Browns.
The selection: Shades of brown -2.5
Expected score: Browns 27-23
(6) Miami Dolphins at (3) Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Peacock)
I know the Chiefs haven't looked great lately. But it's not like the Dolphins were great either. The league's No. 1 offense hasn't scored more than 22 points in three straight games. This weekend, the Dolphins face a hostile environment against the league's second-largest defense in prime time…and it's going to be COLD.
According to Weather.com, Kansas City will experience conditions with highs of 8 degrees and lows of -6 degrees on Saturday. According to the National Weather Service, a temperature of around five degrees and a wind chill of -10 are expected at kickoff. The Dolphins have lost 10 straight games when the kickoff temperature was below 40 degrees, tied for the longest active streak in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa has lost the five coldest starts of his career and is 6-13 in games below 70 degrees.
Add in the fact that the Dolphins are dealing with numerous injuries on defense and I'll take the Chiefs.
The selection: Chiefs -4.5
Expected score: Chiefs 23-17
(7) Pittsburgh Steelers at (2) Buffalo Bills (-10)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers had a great run with Mason Rudolph, and Najee Harris was on a bit of a hot streak as he posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing games for the first time in his career. However, not having TJ Watt on defense will certainly hurt. The Steelers are 1-10 when Watt doesn't play. Another disadvantage of the Steelers is that they are double-digit underdogs. The double-digit underdogs in the wild card round are 0-11 all-time and 2-9 against the spread.
This is another match where notable weather is expected with strong winds. This means we have to walk a lot. In my opinion, the Bills will win this game, but I think I will go against the trend and expect the Steelers to lose by less than double digits.
The selection: Steelers +10
Expected score: Bills 17-10
(7) Green Bay Packers at (2) Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try it for free)
The trends in this matchup are concerning. The Packers are 4-0 SU and ATS all-time against the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium despite being underdogs in all four meetings. Dak Prescott is 1-5 ATS in his six playoff starts while Dallas is 0-4 ATS in his last four home playoff games.
Jordan Love has played some good ball, but the Packers are the youngest playoff team since the 1974 Bills, with an average age of 25 years, 214 days. The Cowboys have been famously dominant at home this season. Dallas has a perfect 8-0 record and six of those wins have come by more than 20 points. The Cowboys have a chance to change the narrative when it comes to their recent postseason failures, and they know it. Prescott and Co. begin the 2023 postseason with a statement win.
The selection: Cowboys -7.5
Expected score: Cowboys 30-20
(6) Los Angeles Rams vs. (3) Detroit Lions (-3)
Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try it for free)
This is the game of the weekend in my opinion. Stafford returns home while Goff also faces his former team. I see this matchup as one that features two explosive offenses but two defenses that are very inconsistent. The Lions' pass defense is the sixth-worst in the league, and their goal defense ranks in the bottom ten. As for the Rams, they have allowed seven passing touchdowns on throws over 20 yards down the field in their last five games, tied for the most in the NFL.
The Lions are better on paper, but they are struggling at home. Detroit fans definitely want to forget what happened on Thanksgiving. I'm leaning angrily towards Stafford and the Rams.
The Lions have a top-five offense in yards and points, but the Rams offense is pretty good too. When they have their “Big Four” on the field with Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, they average 6.8 yards per play. LA is 6-2 with these four players on the field, and they are averaging 28.5 points per game and 398.9 total yards per game. This foursome could have great success against the Lions defense.
The selection: Aries +3
Expected score: Rams 41-35 in OT
(5) Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at (4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo try it for free)
The Buccaneers are 5-1 since the start of December, while the Eagles are 1-5. It's hard to feel good about Philly right now. The Eagles become the sixth team to make the playoffs after going 1-5 or worse in the final six games of the season. They have a +5 point lead this year, which is the fifth-worst ever for a team with 11 wins. The offense looked disjointed, AJ Brown is dealing with a knee injury, DeVonta Smith missed last week with an ankle injury and the defense wasn't as dominant as it has been in 2022. Philly finished the season with the third-worst defense in the league at 25.2 points given per game.
I don't see the Buccaneers as legitimate contenders and Baker Mayfield is dealing with a rib injury that clearly affected him in the regular season finale. But I'm confident that Mayfield and Mike Evans and the rest of this passing attack can be successful against Philly's secondary. The Eagles failed to cover in six straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. I have to take the Buccaneers home.
The selection: Buccaneers +3
Expected score: Buccaneers 26-20
Divisional round
No. 5 Cleveland Browns at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens
What a game it was in Week 10, when Deshaun Watson and the Browns scored 16 unanswered points and won 33-31 in Baltimore. These are two of the best defenses in the league, so it really comes down to which offense is more effective.
If I'm John Harbaugh, I'll be reminding my team about the 2019 season the entire bye week. It's déjà vu. The Ravens won the AFC North, finished No. 1 in the conference, and Lamar Jackson was named MVP. What happened this year? Baltimore was quickly edged out in the postseason by this year's Cinderella team, the Titans. The Ravens won't let that happen again.
Expected score: Ravens 24-21
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs and No. 2 Buffalo Bills
Another postseason duel between the Chiefs and the Bills. Yes. We are back. After a year off, we're resuming this playoff rivalry in 2022. I think this encounter is very likely. These two teams faced off just a month ago, with the Bills Arrowhead escaping with a three-point win thanks to Kadarius Toney's offside call.
Winning in Buffalo isn't impossible. Last year we saw Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals embarrass the Bills in the snow. The thing is, I'm still curious to see if the Chiefs offense can return to form in the playoffs. The weather helped them during Super Wild Card Weekend in Kansas City. Can the Chiefs score more points in Buffalo than Buffalo?
At this point, the Bills have won six straight games, which is the longest streak in the NFL. They are the first team since seeding began in 1975 to earn a top-two finish after hitting .500 or worse with five or fewer games remaining. Is this a Team of Destiny thing? Buffalo has had some impressive performances at home, like the 32-6 win over the Jets after Ken Dorsey was fired or the 31-10 win over the Cowboys that really opened the eyes of the NFL world. I'm leaning towards the Bills, but I could see a change next week.
Expected score: Bills 24-23
No. 6 Los Angeles Rams vs. No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
I think this could be a close game. When these two teams faced off in Week 2, the 49ers forced two turnovers in the second half to break a tie and Sean McVay hit a meaningless field goal to make up the difference for us, losing 30-23. Brock Purdy threw for 206 yards and zero touchdowns, while Stafford attempted a whopping 55 passes for 307 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.
Kyle Shanahan is 10-5 against Sean McVay, but the last loss came in the regular season finale – an instant classic with Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz at quarterback. San Francisco is undoubtedly the better team, so I'll take the 49ers to advance.
Expected score: 49ers 31-24
No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 2 Dallas Cowboys
It was a nice run for the Buccaneers, who defeated the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs, but the 23rd-ranked defense won't be able to stop Dallas at AT&T Stadium.
Expected score: Cowboys 24-18
Championship weekend
No. 2 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens
The last time these two teams played was last year in rainy Baltimore. The Bills scored points in all four quarters and overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Ravens 23-20, thanks to a goal-line interception by Jordan Poyer and a game-winning 21-yard field goal by Tyler Bass. Jackson threw for 144 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions and led Baltimore with 73 yards. Allen scored two total touchdowns and also led his team in rushing with 70 yards. I bet we could see both quarterbacks perform decently in this matchup, but there is one big difference between last year's Ravens team and this year's Ravens team, and that is offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
The Ravens finished this season with the best point differential among winning teams in NFL HISTORY (+178). They finished the year ranked sixth in total offense and fourth in total offense. To get the defense back on track, Baltimore also became the first team in NFL history to lead the league in scoring defense, sacks and takeaways. Ravens to the Super Bowl.
Expected score: Ravens 27-17
No. 2 Dallas Cowboys at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
For Prescott, it's a recurring nightmare. The Cowboys have lost three straight to the 49ers, with two of those losses coming in back-to-back playoffs and the other coming in the form of a 42-10 loss in Week 5. The 49ers offense had no problems against them. The Cowboys defense and the Cowboys offense couldn't do anything to the 49ers defense. Prescott threw for 153 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, while Purdy threw for 252 yards and four touchdowns. I'm not expecting the Cowboys to upset the 49ers, but I do congratulate Jerry Jones on his first NFC Championship appearance since 1995.
Expected score: 49ers 31-23
Sunday, February 11, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount+)
No. 1 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 1 San Francisco 49ers
A No. 1 seed vs. No. 1 seed Super Bowl? Sorry I couldn't make the group more interesting, but I really feel like these are the two best teams in the NFL. Maybe the Browns surprise the Ravens in the divisional round for the second time this season, maybe an unfortunate injury derails San Francisco's postseason run for the second straight year. Expect the unexpected.
I suspect that the Christmas Eve matchup was actually a preview of the Super Bowl. The Ravens were so successful in this 33-19 win over the 49ers because the defense forced turnovers and the offense consistently scored. Baltimore forced three interceptions in the first half and scored on four of five first-half possessions – a streak that extended to seven consecutive scoring drives in the third quarter. It was dominant and quite surprising to see against one of the best defenses in the league.
However, I will tell you. The 49ers love these revenge games. Remember what they did to the Eagles earlier this year? Even though they were in a hostile environment against a hot team? I mean, San Francisco may have broken Philly with that 42-19 win. My guess is that the 49ers don't lose two straight to the Ravens.
Expected score: 49ers 27-24