According to volcanologists, the most likely scenario would be the opening of a crack in the ground near Grindavik, an evacuated town that is expected to suffer major damage in this eruption.
After Eyjafjallajökull, after Litli Hrutur, lies Fagradalsfjall. In recent hours, the Icelandic port city of Grindavik, in the southwest of the island, has been evacuated of its nearly 4,000 residents in anticipation of the eruption of this volcano, which experts say could damage the region.
At the beginning of last week, the magma had accumulated about five kilometers below the city before rising vertically to the surface a few days later and is now only 800 meters from the surface.
That path caused numerous earthquakes, including 800 in the Grindavik region on Friday alone, harbingers of an impending eruption, and authorities declared a state of emergency.
“The magma is now at a very shallow depth. Therefore, we expect a volcanic eruption towards the city of Grindavik,” said Vidir Reynisson, head of civil protection and emergency management in Iceland.
Grindavik is located about 40 kilometers southwest of Reykjavik and is close to the Svartsengi geothermal power plant, the main supplier of electricity and water to 30,000 residents of the Reykjanes Peninsula.
“In this area we have sensitive infrastructure, a power plant, a fresh water storage facility and hot water also comes from this region,” he confirms.
It is also close to the Blue Lagoon geothermal spa, a popular tourist destination that was temporarily closed earlier this week as a precaution.
15 kilometer long gap
Given the impending danger, the decision was made to evacuate and the residents are now accommodated in various reception centers in the country. “These decisions were made for security reasons, all roads to Grindavik were closed,” adds Vidir Reynisson.
The most likely scenario would be the opening of a rift near Grindavik.
“There is a rift about 15 kilometers long, and anywhere in that rift we can see that an eruption could occur,” he said, without ruling out the possibility of an eruption at the bottom of the ocean, which would likely cause a large ash cloud .
Earthquakes and ground shaking caused by magma intrusion have already damaged roads and buildings in and around Grindavik. A large crack also tore through the greens of the city’s golf course, an image that was widely shared on social media.
Three eruptions occurred near Fagradalsfjall on the Reykjanes Peninsula, in March 2021, August 2022 and July 2023. The earth’s crust was broken up by these eruptions over the past three years in such a way that magmatic fluids were able to find their way further more quickly. explained Sara Barsotti, Volcano Risk Coordinator at IMO (Iceland Meteorological Office).
Volcanologists estimate that this new cycle of increased activity could last several decades or even centuries.