War on the field and with words, with plans and – as usual – pleas for help. While the eastern sector continues to be the center of the battle. Deputy commander of the Ukrainian military intelligence service Vadym Skibitsky said in an interview that a counter-offensive will be launched in the spring, but the exact timing will depend on a number of factors, including the volume of western supplies. As for the destination, he announced that they would head south, always with Crimea in mind. Now everything is plausible, but it is also possible that Skibitsky’s statements are a smoke screen to cover up the real intentions, as happened in Kharkiv back in September. And projects certainly depend on many variables that are not always predictable.
The point raised by the Russian ultranationalist Igor Girkin is very interesting, always critical – like Wagner – of the General Staff. In his opinion, the army needs massive support from China when it comes to ammunition, as it has fewer and fewer supplies available. We need a “lend and lease” program, he said, similar to that of the United States, except that the People’s Republic has to guarantee it. As long as she’s ready. Girkin’s notes intertwine with the assessments of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA Director William Burns: for both, Beijing is examining how to support the Kremlin in terms of war. In the last few days there have been reports of the possible deployment of kamikaze drones, technology and of course artillery supplies. Apparently there would be nothing concrete. Scenarios affected by the great tensions between the rival superpowers.
In addition – and let’s return to the failure of Skibitsky – Kiev also has a great need for “shells” for its guns: it needs to defend the attacked lines and use them on the offensive in the future. As pointed out by Russian defense expert Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, this war has shown more than others the importance of artillery and especially ammunition: In recent months, the Ukrainians have been firing between 2,000 and 4,000 rounds a day, while the Russians have Reached peaks of 50,000. Because of this, the allies are looking for bullets suitable for weapons of Soviet design, which are still widely used by the Ukrainians, but which are not manufactured in the West. And here, of course, hunting is intertwined with the local politics of different countries.
In fact, according to a document obtained by the New York Times, the British have formed a secret task force to provide the resistance with Soviet ammunition, including through triangulations that allow them to buy countries geopolitically closer to Moscow without attracting attention through provocation Public Opinion: In June, for example, they bought 40,000 Pakistani-made shells and rockets through a Romanian broker, a deal that then fell through, but Luxembourg also supplies weapons made in the Czech Republic, and then there are American brokers who supply ammunition buy in the factories of Bosnia, Serbia, Romania. In Eastern Europe, too, old closed factories have been reactivated in recent weeks, for example in Bulgaria. One in Sopot, the other in Kostenets, where the 122mm Terem ammunition factory, which had been closed in 1988 with the end of the Cold War, reopened in January. Officials from the local American embassy were present at the dedication.