Exclusive
Status: 03/15/2023 00:00
The Republic of Moldova must secede from the West and fight for a future alongside Russia – a strategy document supposedly coming from the Kremlin says how this should happen. WDR, NDR and SZ is available.
By Manuel Bewarder, WDR,/NDR and Palina Milling, WDR
Nervousness in the Republic of Moldova can now be seen almost every day. Thousands of people again protested in the streets of the capital Chisinau over the weekend. Chants addressed to the pro-European government. In this context, the police acted: seven suspects were arrested. The accusation: a pro-Russian network would have worked with the help of Russian secret services in “destabilizing actions” that would have been organized “through demonstrations” in Moldova.
Even though Moscow has always dismissed such claims as “false”, things are boiling over in the former Soviet republic, which has a population of just over 2.5 million. The situation has worsened since the Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022.
Stir up pro-Russian sentiment
Russia seems to have had a plan in Moldova for a long time. This is demonstrated by a document that WDR, NDR and “Süddeutsche Zeitung” were able to evaluate with international partners. Thus, before the start of the war, in the summer of 2021, Russia’s presidential administration would have established in a strategy document how pro-Russian tendencies should be promoted and, at the same time, how the country should be prevented from orienting itself. To the west.
In five pages, the strategic plan summarizes Russia’s political, military, security, commercial, economic and social objectives in Moldova. The document apparently comes from the same experts who would have drawn up a strategy for the annexation of Belarus. The presidential administration left an investigation into alleged plans for Moldova unanswered.
Moldova is seen in the document as an important arena for a confrontation with the West. One of the main Russian objectives for the next ten years is “to neutralize attempts by external actors to interfere in the internal affairs of the republic”. This is directed at NATO. They want to prevent the position of the Russian Federation from being weakened.
At the same time, Moscow appears to want to lend a helping hand when it comes to Moldova’s possible participation in Russian-dominated associations. Specifically, according to the article, this is the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). “Pro-Russian sentiment” must be awakened among political and business elites.
More Russian lessons
Russia apparently wants to use “Moldova’s interest in the Russian sales market” as a means of economic pressure: this is aimed at preventing the country’s government from “harming Russian interests in the region”. Apparently there are also plans for the education sector. According to the paper, “distance learning in Russian” will be expanded to Moldovan students. According to the strategy document, Russian universities should open their branches in Moldova. According to the newspaper, in the long-term perspective until 2030, a “negative attitude towards NATO” must be created in Moldovan society and political circles. Furthermore, a “broad Russian media presence” in Moldova must be ensured by then.
Western security experts consider the document to be authentic. A high-ranking Western secret service official says: Moscow is about “putting a stop sign in the west.” For Stefan Meister, head of the International Order and Democracy program at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) think tank, one thing is particularly clear in the newspaper: you see yourself in “direct competition” with the EU and NATO and are trying to to contradict their narratives.
Transnistria as a gateway
The outbreak of war in Ukraine has apparently ensured that the struggle for Moldova is no longer a matter of years. As Moldova moves westward and embraces reforms, Russia’s influence could wane if it doesn’t take a more proactive approach. The fragility of the situation in Moldova became apparent in February: within days, Russian missiles flew over Moldova into Ukraine, then the prime minister resigned and Ukraine warned that there was a detailed Russian plan for destabilization. In the West, there is concern that Moscow wants to establish the facts quickly.
This is also indicated by the escalating situation in Transnistria with its Russian troops and what is probably the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe. Russian soldiers have been stationed in the self-proclaimed Republic of Transnistria since 1992. The Moldovan government has repeatedly asked the Kremlin to withdraw these troops – to no avail. The breakaway strip of land with almost half a million inhabitants in eastern Moldova forms part of Moldova under international law. But Russia could use the frozen conflict in the region as a gateway.
“Targeted Russian Activities”
According to the internal strategic plan, it is said that in the short term, ie within a few years, Moldova should reverse the measures that exerted political or economic pressure on Transnistria. One of the points explicitly addresses Russian troops: Moldovan initiatives intended to abolish the Russian military presence in Transnistria were to be “neutralised”.
The German government is also closely monitoring the situation: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that the Moldovan crisis has been exacerbated by “targeted Russian destabilization activities”. The federal government has received reports about the “staging of protests in Moldova by Russian actors”.
A few days ago it became clear how tense and opaque the situation is. Russian state news agency Ria reported that there were allegedly failed assassination attempts on senior officials in Transnistria. According to Portal agency, pro-Russian authorities in Transnistria blamed Ukrainian intelligence services. Moldova said it was investigating the lawsuit. Kiev, for its part, rejected the accusations and referred to Russia: that is where the aggressor is based. Moscow is looking for an excuse to intervene in Transnistria – and then bring the entire Republic of Moldova under control.
The following were involved in the research: Yahoo News, Delfi Estonia, Kyiv Independent, Expressen, Frontstory.pl, VSQuare, Belarusian Investigative Center, Dossier Center, Rise, Süddeutsche Zeitung, NDR and WDR
Internal Strategy Paper: The Kremlin’s Plan for Moldova
Palina Milling, WDR, March 15, 2023 12:00 pm