Macron on the brink: How the French pension revolt could ruin his presidency – POLITICO Europe

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PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron will face a moment of reckoning on Thursday as lawmakers prepare for a final vote on the government’s deeply unpopular pension reform.

The controversial bill, a key part of Macron’s second term, has sparked weeks of nationwide union-led protests and has been heavily criticized by both the far left and the far right in the National Assembly.

The French president wants to raise the statutory retirement age from 62 to 64 and extend contributions for a full pension to balance the accounts of France’s state pension system – one of the most generous in the world. According to forecasts by the French Council for Pension Planning, the finances of the pension system are balanced in the short term but will be in deficit in the long term.

Despite the government’s concessions on various aspects of the draft law in recent weeks, opposition to the reform remains very strong, with polls showing that two-thirds of French citizens oppose it.

There is speculation that Macron may not have enough support in the National Assembly and could opt for a constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament – a move that could create a political storm in France.

On Thursday, France’s Senate and National Assembly are expected to cast a crucial vote on the bill’s second reading, after the Senate voted in favor of it last week. The result will shape the shape of Macron’s second term and will greatly influence his legacy.

Worst case: Macron loses the vote in ParliamentT

Losing the parliamentary vote would be a bitter defeat for the French president, who has tied his candidacy for a second term to his promises to reform France’s pension system. But political commentators have speculated in recent days that Macron’s Renaissance party may not have enough votes to pass the law.

The French President lost his absolute majority in the National Assembly in last June’s parliamentary elections. Since then he has been forced to make ad hoc deals with MPs from France’s conservative Les Républicains party. But the once-powerful Conservatives appear divided on the reform, although their leader Olivier Marleix assured this week that there is “a clear majority” backing the law.

A defeat in Parliament would have seismic and long-term repercussions for Macron’s second term, and it is likely that the President’s trusted Deputy Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne would have to resign in such a scenario. But party heavyweights say they won’t shy away from requesting a vote.

“There will be a vote, we want a vote, everyone has to face up to their responsibilities,” said Aurore Bergé, leader of the Renaissance Group in the National Assembly.

“There may be an accident… we will handle it as we can,” admitted Jean-Paul Mattei, a centrist MP who is part of Macron’s coalition, citing a defeat in parliament.

This is the most unlikely scenario, however, as the government is expected to bypass a vote if it feels it is missing votes.

Demonstrators hold an effigy of French President Emmanuel Macron during a demonstration on the 8th day of strikes and protests across the country against the government’s proposed pension reform in Paris March 15, 2023 | Alain Jocard/AFP via Getty Images

Pretty bad: Macron bypasses Parliament and loses credibilityj

Faced with a possible defeat in the National Assembly, Macron has a nuclear option: to invoke Article 49.3 of the French constitution. This mechanism allows the government to enforce laws without putting them to a vote.

While the constitutional maneuver may seem like an easy way out, it is a highly risky move, allowing lawmakers to table a motion of no confidence within 24 hours. Macron’s government has faced no-confidence motions in the past, but the stakes are much higher this time.

Aside from surviving a no-confidence motion, Macron and Borne will also come under fire for refusing to submit to the democratic process.

According to Frédéric Dabi, director general of the IFOP polling institute, if the government used the 49.3 article instead of passing a close vote in parliament, the impact on public opinion would be “radically different”.

“Public opinion on the 49.3 Article has changed … it is seen as a tool to brutalize the National Assembly: it is now seen as authoritarian rather than just authoritarian. People today want more transparency, more democracy,” he said.

France’s hard-line unions would no doubt use this to foment unrest and call for more strikes.

Labor leader Laurent Berger has warned the government against using Article 49.3, saying it would be “incredible and dangerous”.

“No one can predict what will happen, the protest movement seems to be running out of steam, but if the government invokes Article 49.3, it could be interpreted as aggravating the problem and could revitalize the protest movement,” Dabi said.

Still not great: Macron wins the vote but faces mass protests

If the French President wins the vote in Parliament, it will be counted as a victory, but one that could completely deplete his political capital and spark protests in the streets.

“It will be a victory for Macron, but it will only bear fruit in the long term. In the short term, he will face a tense country where relations are very strained,” said Chloé Morin, writer and political scientist.

Union leader Berger said he would “take with him” the result of Thursday’s parliamentary vote. But protests, which have been taking place almost weekly since January, could still rage across the country in a bid to force the government to back down and withdraw the text.

Morin thinks it’s unlikely there will be an “explosion of protests” after the vote as people reconcile it being passed.

French police officers intervene during a protest by municipal employees against the government’s pension reform in front of the prefecture in Seine Saint-Denis in the Bobigny suburb of Paris, March 14, 2023 | Thomas Samson/AFP via Getty Images

“However, the protest movement could become more radical with lightning protests or acts of sabotage, led by a minority in the citizen movement,” Morin said.

In October last year, industrial action at France’s refineries led to nationwide shortages of gas stations, forcing the government to intervene in what was Macron’s biggest challenge since his re-election last year.

There are also dangerous precedents for Macron. In December 2019, the government was forced to abandon a new green tax amid explosive Yellow Vest protests that shook the political establishment.