- On Wednesday, Russia claimed to have shot down two Ukrainian drones aimed at the Kremlin in Moscow.
- The Russian government has accused Kiev of carrying out the attack, denouncing “an attempted terrorist attack and an attempt on the life of the President”, while Ukraine has denied any involvement.
- If the origin of the attack cannot currently be independently traced, a drone attack on the Kremlin from Ukrainian territory is “feasible” and raises the question of the importance of drones in this European conflict.
Whether small, compact flying objects or airplanes stuffed with technology, drones have been attracting more and more light since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Moscow accused Kiev of attempting to attack the Kremlin with two drones that were allegedly shot down by Russian forces. Drones attacked oil refineries in south-west Russia on Thursday. Whether psychological maneuver or staged, the attack on the Kremlin demonstrates the involvement of these unmanned aerial vehicles in this European war.
Russian media shared numerous videos of the incident near the Kremlin. In one of the shared videos, a device can be seen exploding on the dome of the Senate Palace, one of the Kremlin’s main buildings. Moscow considers it an “attempted act of terrorism and [d’] an assassination attempt on the Russian President. Kiev, for its part, denied any involvement and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy added: “We did not attack [Vladimir] cheese fries […] We defend our villages and towns”.
Technically “feasible” for Kyiv
The French foreign minister called Thursday’s attack on France Inter “strange, to say the least”, and the head of American diplomacy, Antony Blinken, for his part, declared that “to take everything that comes out of the Kremlin with great caution”. But if the perpetrator of the attack is not known for certain and Catherine Colonna describes the fact that drones are reaching the Kremlin as “rather incomprehensible”, it is technically possible. “It can be done,” says Yves Boyer, a member of the international think tank TAG. “An attack from Ukraine is possible, but it’s also possible that it was a Ukrainian group that smuggled into Russia and installed the drone about a hundred kilometers from the Kremlin right on Russian territory,” explains the security expert Defense.
“Russia is 9,000 km from west to east. Drones have a range of a few kilometers to several hundred kilometers. For comparison: cruise missiles can fly up to 3,000 km. So, fired from Ukraine, a drone can enter Russian airspace, but not cover the whole country in a single flight. An operational mode where a drone takes off from inland would make the task easier,” agrees Lucas Le Bell. Especially since “the longer we fly over, the more we risk being detected,” recalls the co-founder of CerbAir, a company that develops and manufactures systems to combat malicious drones.
However, the seat of Russian power is around 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. And with regard to drones, “the autonomy depends on their size, the smaller the aircraft, the more it is reduced”, explains Yves Boyer. UJ-22 drones have a long range and can reach, for example, the Russian capital. One of these planes, owned by the Ukrjet company, crashed near the Gazprom facilities near the village of Gubastovo, about a hundred kilometers from the Kremlin, last February.
A “symbolic damage”
If the drones were assembled directly on Russian territory, they could be medium-sized aircraft. “These drones can attack targets 100 or even 200 kilometers away,” Yves Boyer notes, before adding: “However, they are drones with a very low charge.” “In terms of efficiency, it’s useless. For example, if you want to destroy the National Assembly in France, 20 kg of explosives will not be enough,” explains the member of the international think tank TAG. However, the symbolism is strong. “The effect is only political, it shows that the Russians can be vulnerable,” explains the former professor at the Polytechnique.
“The damage is unsurprisingly very superficial. It is symbolic damage,” adds Lucas Le Bell. Because the Kremlin is a symbol – probably the most important symbol – of Russian power. However, it is extremely difficult to prove the origin of this attack, which is one of the advantages of using drones. These aircraft played a central role in the war in Ukraine. Originally limited to reconnaissance, they have mutated since the beginning of the conflict and are being overused in this conflict.
“Misuse of Drone”
“This war marks the exposure of the use of drones for kinetic purposes. Previously used for reconnaissance or espionage missions, here they are used for bombing purposes,” explains Yves Boyer. Also, Ukrainians have learned to manage with what they have. “Civilian drones are made for use. The Ukrainians use many small drones, sometimes tinkered with drop systems, to deliver surgical strikes on certain armor components such as optics,” decodes Lucas Le Bell.
Drones are also much more economical than rockets. “These drones act as low-cost rockets, they are worth between 10,000 and 20,000 euros when the rockets themselves are worth hundreds of thousands to millions of euros,” explains the CerbAir co-founder. “If the drone is intercepted, there is a financial cost – but quite small – and no human cost since it has no pilot,” notes Yves Boyer. In Ukraine, technological gems meet do-it-yourself recreational drones on the battlefield. “Previously, they were very expensive operations reserved for a limited club of countries that had the resources and expertise,” stresses Lucas Le Bell. But today, the use of these planes raises an issue of “internal security.” “The creativity in this abuse of the drone is limitless and could be used by terrorists tomorrow,” warns the co-founder of CerbAir.