“This verdict is a disgrace! ‘ Donald Trump denounced after he was found guilty of sexual assault by a civil court in New York on Tuesday. The former president suffered his first court conviction while facing criminal charges on multiple counts ranging from his role in the 2021 Capitol attack to concealing classified documents. His campaign team immediately said he would appeal the decision.
But this first conviction raises questions about the political future of the former US President, who is used to scandals. Is he the first American president to experience such a legal setback? What reactions can we expect from the two major political parties in the United States? And what political future can he still dream of? 20 Minutes takes stock for you, thanks to the insights of Olivier Richomme, lecturer in American Civilization at the University Lumière Lyon-2.
Is this court decision in the United States an exception?
“It is indeed an extraordinary decision, it has never taken place. But that is often the case with Donald Trump,” emphasizes Olivier Richomme. In fact, the list of cases in which the former real estate tycoon plays the vanguard is particularly long. On Tuesday he was found responsible for the 1996 sexual assault of former journalist E. Jean Carroll, to whom he must pay $5 million in damages.
Back in late March, Donald Trump faced criminal charges, specifically on suspicion of buying the silence of a porn actress he allegedly had sex with in the run-up to the 2016 election. In January 2021, he faced a trial for the second impeachment trial in Congress.
Each time it is a first for a President – or former President – of the United States. “In many instances it is the first in the history of the United States. It’s unique,” notes the American Civilization teacher and researcher at the Université Lumière Lyon-2. Novelty after novelty, scandal after scandal, however, Donald Trump has managed to establish himself on the American political landscape. “Up until then he had never been found guilty, but this incident is part of a long-lasting political and identity crisis in the United States,” notes Olivier Richomme.
How might Republicans and Democrats react?
As is usual with any scandal, the former president invokes “political persecution”. “The Democratic Party’s endless witch hunt (…) reached a new level today,” his campaign team reacted on Tuesday. Despite his legal setbacks, Donald Trump remains comfortably ahead in the polls for the Republican primary, 31 points ahead of his main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to a Yahoo News-YouGov poll earlier in April. However, this popularity among Republican voters ensures him the tacit support of his party. “His electoral base is quite large and as long as it is, the Republicans will stay behind him,” analyzes Olivier Richomme. Because ever since that free electron entered American politics, “the party has gradually erred.” Some Republican leaders have left. But those who remain have little political courage, they will not dare to speak out while they appear to be in the running for elections.”
The Democrats, for their part, have emphasized Donald Trump’s machinations ever since he appeared on the political spectrum. “They will probably try to capitalize on this court decision. But there is no certainty that it will work,” emphasizes Olivier Richomme. “Each party appeals to its type of voter. American politics is incredibly polarized. It’s like in silos: people no longer talk to each other, no longer consult the same media, no longer live in the same states,” the expert on American civilization decodes again. Back in 2016, Donald Trump was accused of his sexism, including in a video in which he claimed, “when you’re a star,” women let you “do anything” and “you can grab them by the pussy.” Seven years and a series of gaffes later, “it is therefore hard to imagine a voter waking up today and believing that this is the last straw that broke the camel’s back,” countered Olivier Richomme.
Can Donald Trump’s political career be ruined if he seeks a second term?
“What characterizes Donald Trump’s political career is precisely that nothing seems to get him anywhere!” It is certain that this will not prevent him from continuing his electoral campaign, since nothing has prevented him from doing so until now,” analyzes Olivier Richomme. Even more surprising is that his legal setbacks could breathe new life into his campaign. “When he was indicted by the Manhattan Attorney’s Office, he was a huge success in the Republican primary and also in his fundraisers,” explains the US specialist. “The world is upside down with Donald Trump. Any other candidate would have been sidelined long ago by so many deals. But in his case there shouldn’t be any political consequences. Even if they are positive for him, for example, since there are more donors for his fundraiser,” explains Olivier Richomme.
In France, a maximum of five years’ imprisonment can be imposed for a misdemeanor and a maximum ten-year ban for a criminal offence. In the United States, things are much more complex. Whether it’s his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, attempting to obstruct Georgia’s 2020 presidential election, or concealing classified government documents, all of these investigations are federal in nature. “A ban seems very unlikely. It would have to be a federal procedure to prevent him from running in federal elections,” explains Olivier Richomme.
The attorney general is refusing to attack Donald Trump for his involvement in the storming of the Capitol. “It would be very risky and would look like a political attack,” emphasizes the US expert, adding: “It’s the political issue and the public that will decide.” And so far, Donald Trump is still enjoying himself on the other side of the Atlantic Popularity.