The United Nations, in turn, formalized the return of the meteorological phenomenon on Tuesday, July 4th, urging governments to anticipate the consequences of this natural climate anomaly.
Governments around the world need to be able to predict the damage caused by El Niño. This surface warming phenomenon in the eastern and central Pacific is well known: it recurs every two to seven years. Problem: In a climate altered by human activities, the consequences of El Niño are not entirely predictable.
>> Climate: According to an American agency, Monday July 3rd was the hottest day ever measured worldwide
We must be prepared for unusual weather conditions in different regions of the world, with the risk of flooding in Latin America and the southern United States, on the Pacific coast, above-average rainfall in Central Africa… Conversely, one must be prepared for drought and the risk of fire in Indonesia and Australia.
This phenomenon is cyclical as El Niño represents a natural realignment of the climate system. It allows the release of certain heat reserves in the Pacific Ocean. But mechanically, when it kicks in, the trade winds weaken, the warm Pacific waters are no longer pushed to the same place, and evaporation changes. So the rain no longer falls in the same place.
From 2024, the first effects of El Niño will be felt in France
That is why the United Nations is concerned about the population and the agricultural regions in the face of the threat of drought and floods, which at the same time could become victims of poor harvests. The World Health Organization also fears an increase in water-borne diseases such as cholera or mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever or malaria.
In France, we should not feel the effects of El Niño immediately since we are too far from the Pacific zone where the phenomenon occurs. But starting next year, due to the cumulative effect of El Niño and greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is likely to experience its five hottest years since the start of the industrial age. In addition, Monday, July 3rd was the hottest day ever recorded in the world, the average air temperature on the earth’s surface exceeded 17°C.