The drop in price is due to the quality harvested. Grain price lists also cooled due to negotiations over the reopening of the Black Sea “corridor”.
Soft wheat has prospects for growth due to its superior quality
Italy
In the squares the Tendency to widen spreads between grains with superior properties and grains of classes 3 and 4. The evidence of Italian production with low specific gravity and patchy quality overlaps with the wide range of bread and generic grains from Europe. For grain sizes and above There are still prospects of further strengthening in the coming weeks. Exchanges at a good level and maximum attention to the specifications negotiated and delivered. The “protein type Bologna 14” at 305-308 €/t (+5 €/t), starting with the “Specials” at 265-270 €/t and the “Mixed” unchanged at 250 €/t; Positions 4 and 5 are quoted starting at 210-220 €/t. There was a slight decline in EU bread products with “sources” (-10€/t) arriving below 370€/t.
Europe
The development of harvests in the central-northern continental areas remains suboptimal, with a likely downward revision of the harvest estimates for 2023, currently around 126 million/t Evidence of damage to product quality and a protein content that is expected to be one percentage point lower on average than in 2022. In Germany and France, the supply is wait-and-see, particularly for grains of the highest quality, with a proportion of lots containing bread. Overall, the properties are still around 85 -90%. Exports are suffering from competition from Russia and this is putting a strain on the stock exchanges that quote the forward position in Paris. September remains at €227/t, with the “bread” delivered Fob Rouen at €225-227/t.
World
All eyes remain on climate (drought) developments in the Canadian plains and northern USA, which point to further developments Downward revision of production for 2023. However, the normally bullish effect is more than offset by Russia’s commercial aggressiveness, which has been enforcing low prices and winning auctions for months. When the Turks try to persuade Russia to reopen the corridor” Black Sea trade will come about, The downward trend could continue to strengthen We are waiting to better understand the agroclimatic evolution in the southern hemisphere: Argentina and Australia. After rejecting recent offers, Egypt and Algeria are reopening buying auctions. Argentina for $310/t, Australian Soft White for $290/t, DNS for $314/t, Russian milling for $250/t.
Durum wheat losses in Rome and Foggia
Italy
The reopening of Foggia (-60 €/t) and Rome (-50 €/t) report Prices in line with other major local exchanges. The repositioning of prices arises from the harvested quality, which in many cases needs to be selected and improved in terms of product and milling parameters. Trading takes place without any spikes due to wait-and-see demand (falling prices) and the uncertainty of supply over the medium-term development. Prices for the Fino type are around €400-410/t, delivered with discount for items 2 and 3, which remains greater in the central north (€45/t and €105/t) than in the south (10 €/t and 50 €). /T); Waiting for the outcome of the auctions in North Africa.
Europe
The situation in Europe is outlined and the operators consider both the attitude of the importing countries (Italy and North Africa) and the climate and harvest trends in Europe Canada, the only real competitor to EU exports. Exchange without any particular pressure, with a wait-and-see attitude on both sides. In France, prices consolidated at the level of the previous period, while in Spain they remained outside the market, initially recording the value of the incoming French-Canadian substitute products. The mills are largely covered and the presence of “spot” demand from Spain is reduced while waiting to better understand the outcome of the Algerian auction. The hard FOB Mediterranean from France has a value of €425/t.
World
There Harvest progress is slow in the USA and Canada and the response of the fields after the less negative signals of the first cuts confirms a drop in production compared to 2022, even if the development cycle, which took place in drought conditions (partially mitigated by the water reserves of the soil), gives hope for quality (sorting) from medium to high grain size. Canada’s Production Estimates on average they speak of 4.2 million/t, with sources indicating 3.7 million/t and others up to 5.4 million/t (a value slightly lower than post-sowing forecasts). Operators are waiting for at least 50% of the fields to be threshed; currently Canada is at around 30% and the USA is just above this value. With very low initial stocks, the qualitative response will also be crucial in determining the price for 2023/24; Today the value returned to the Mediterranean port in September is $530/ton.
Corn, another harvest week
Italy
The economic situation is essentially determined by the outcome of the proceedings Italian harvest, good in areas not affected by extreme climatic events, crossed with a well-present European and foreign supply and with depressing effects resulting from the price of feed wheat. In this context (which already partially takes into account the resumption of transport from the Black Sea), prices continue to lose ground, with “traits” maize delivered to destination at around €245/t and generic maize at a discount of 5-10 €/t is offered. t; EU and abroad decreased by 10-12 €/t.
Europe
The climatic development in France and northern Spain is repeating itself Overall positive production estimates which could bring the Community harvest to almost 60 million tonnes in 2023. More optimistic estimates overlap with the arrival and transit of Ukrainian corn from Eastern European regions. This leads to a downward trend in markets in a global context where there is more competition for Community exports. Hungary’s unilateral decision to extend the import ban from Ukraine had little impact. Average trades for the period (summer) in a regime where supply always outweighs demand. On the Paris Euronext, corn for November (new harvest) costs 214 €/t and the “spot” of the 2022 harvest in the French port of Bordeaux was 228 €/t.
World
The market has entered a period of hesitation between the response to the harvest tour in US production areas (reducing the expectation of serious damage from the recent drought) and the (slightly delayed) progress of threshing operations in Brazil. A rise at the start of last week in Cbot was followed by a fall in price at levels that have been fluctuating for several weeks but remain within a minimum-maximum of $4.60 and $4.80/bushel. In the short term, markets are expected to weaken with the arrival of Brazil’s record harvest and the associated supply; The unknown surrounding the Turkish-Russian talks about reopening the “corridor” consolidates this pessimistic mood. FOB prices: USA at $222/t, Ukrainian NQ, Argentina at $229/t, Brazil at $217/t.
Foreign soybeans are consolidating, sorghum is affected by general declines
Italy
Feed grain: Sorghum starts at 215 €/t from the north, due to the wide range of feed wheat and barley. Waiting demand due to supply pressure and wheat price decline (minus €10/t) to €220/t, with heavy barley holding its positions at €210/t. Oilseeds: Since national soybeans are still in the unlisted phase, there is a consolidation of soybean prices compared to last week’s values (arrival 520-530 €/t) due to the volatility in global markets and the Euro/Dollar exchange rate. Sunflower opens at 390-395 €/t.
Europe
Feed grain: Signs of tension in Community markets following the lower export data for 2023/24, reflecting the progressive loss of competitiveness given low prices from the Black Sea origin country. Domestic consumption remains weak and a lack of demand support from ports, falling prices for wheat and barley. oilseeds: Rapeseed market, which takes into account the “global” trend of soy and oilseeds and finds only partial support from the price of US origin to compensate for the expectation of greater commercial pressure from the Black Sea sunflower. August ends with falling prices and Euronext rapeseed for November is quoted at 465 €/t, FOB Rouen at 465 €/t. The “oleic acid” sunflower brought S. Nazaire a yield of 440 €/t (minus 5 €/t).
World
feed grains: Week of uncertain trends in wheat and barley, following geopolitical news (will the “corridor” reopen?) and global production, with a larger percentage of grains downgraded from “food” to “feed.” The Black Sea determines short-term price developments. In the medium term, we are looking at Asian demand and sowing in the southern hemisphere. Fob Black Sea barley at $190/t, Australian at $245/t; SRW FOB Gulf wheat at $245/t and Ukrainian NQ. Oilseeds: The US crop tour provided substantial confirmation of limited damage from recent drought and high temperatures. After a bullish start to the week, Cbot is back in a bearish trend, even as global trade remains very buoyant and supportive. The extra Brazilian offer weighs heavily. FOB prices: US soybeans at $559/t, Brazilian soybeans at $530/t, Argentina at $543/t; Canadian rapeseed FOB at $610/t.