The enthusiasm and euphoria that reigned among Ukrainian soldiers at the front a year ago have faded and been replaced by defiant exhaustion, said Naill Ferguson, a researcher at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.
“The soldiers who returned from the front are tired, and they don’t mind admitting it. “More was expected from the counteroffensive this summer than what they were able to achieve,” Ferguson says in his text.
According to the analyst, the main problem is that relatively inexperienced troops have advanced against well-fortified Russian positions without air superiority.
“The Russians used the time when the West took over arms supplies to Ukraine to entrench themselves and lay mines,” the author notes.
For Ferguson, The Russians retain a significant advantage in artilleryIt fired eight times as many projectiles as Ukraine and also responded to Kiev’s drone attacks faster than many expected.
Why is Zelensky’s promise to continue the counteroffensive until winter an illusion?
Against this background, the author notes, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Ukrainians will succeed in dividing the Russian “land bridge” to Crimea with a push towards the Black Sea or Sea of Azov and could usher in the next phase of the conflict offensive Russian air against Ukraine.
While this is happening on the ground, the Stanford University analyst says: is weakening in support of Ukraine between the populations of the USA and Europe. For example, based on the study by CNN and the polling firm SSRS last August, 55% of American citizens surveyed said they are legislators should not Authorize further additional funding to support Kyiv.
Bloomberg echoes the statements of General Christian Freuding, director of the Joint Planning and Command Staff of the German Defense Ministry, that “no one expects the conflict to be over in six months,” adding that the government of that country one is planning a “time horizon up to 2032”.
“Conflicts of attrition do not favor the smaller fighter. It is difficult to say how many more offensives Ukraine can organize by 2032 or even next year at this point,” he says.
For Ferguson, International support for Ukraine will become more contentious in the coming year. “Many countries in the so-called Global South have reservations about supporting Ukraine, which explains the weak language of the recent G-20 communiqué on the issue. “These nations do not believe that Russia’s land grabs compare to European colonialism,” the columnist says.
Likewise, “these countries have reasons” for not wanting to distance themselves from Russia and China and “are concerned that less attention is being paid to the wars in Africa (Ethiopia, Sudan) and see the impact of the war on food supplies in Africa.” as a convincing argument for peace based on Ukrainian concessions.”
“Is it realistic to expect that Western support will increase or even be maintained in the next 12 months, let alone in the next nine years?” asks the scientist, who concludes that Kiev is the declared goal of its authorities, to get the year 1991 again will not reach limits.