An overhaul of the SEC East standings could be coming in Week 5 when No. 22 Florida travels to Kentucky. Since these teams have already started conference play with wins, they would like nothing more than to go 2-0 in the league as they chase back-to-back national champion Georgia for the division title.
Florida and Kentucky aren’t exactly rivals, but this game has provided plenty of intrigue in recent years. It used to be a given that the Gators would emerge with a win no matter where the game took place. Florida won 31 straight times against Kentucky from 1987 to 2017, making it one of the longest consecutive winning streaks against a single opponent in college football history.
The Wildcats broke the skid and have made things interesting ever since. In fact, Mark Stoops’ team has won two straight games against Florida, marking the first such streak since 1976-77. Although Florida enters the rankings on Saturday, Kentucky is actually a slight 2.5-point favorite to extend its winning streak against the Gators.
The Wildcats have a 4-0 record this year, although they have never beaten a team with a winning record. Florida has already suffered one loss, albeit against two-time reigning Pac-12 champion Utah. The Gators also already have a top-class win against Tennessee.
Florida vs. Kentucky: What you need to know
Transfer quarterbacks with different trajectories: Both Florida and Kentucky have first-year transfers starting at quarterback. The Gators have had some success with Graham Mertz, a former longtime starter at Wisconsin. He completed 77.8% of his passes and averaged 11 yards per attempt in two of the last three games. Kentucky quarterback Devin Leary, a former star at NC State, hasn’t gotten off to such a great start. He has already set a career high with five interceptions in a season and has a completion rate of under 60%. However, he has thrown nine touchdowns, which is significantly more than Mertz’s four.
Historic opportunity for Wildcats: Although Florida has dominated the recent history of this rivalry, there is a lot at stake in Saturday’s game. For Kentucky, a victory would mark its first three-game winning streak in the series since 1948-51, when Bear Bryant patrolled the sidelines. This would also mean that the Wildcats would have won four games against the Gators in a six-year span since 1974-79. Florida clearly wants to avoid being on the wrong side of history. The Gators are also hoping for their first 2-0 start to an SEC game since 2020.
Florida’s defense makes the difference: While Mertz and his easy resurgence have been a nice story for Florida, the defense has dominated the season so far. The Gators rank fifth nationally in total defense, allowing just 245 yards per game. They are one of only 14 schools – along with Kentucky – at the FBS level that allow fewer than 90 rushing yards per game, and their 13.5 points given up per game is tied with Alabama and second only to Georgia in the field SEC. First-year defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong appears to be a grand slam signing for Billy Napier.
How to watch Florida vs. Kentucky live
Date: Saturday September 30th | Time: 12 p.m. ET
Location: Kroger Field – Lexington, Kentucky
TV: ESPN | Live broadcast: fubo (Try for free)
Florida vs. Kentucky prediction, tips
SportsLine consensus odds
These two teams are far too evenly matched, at least on paper, to make a safe decision either straight up or against the spread. Florida got the more impressive win over Tennessee, but also struggled to finish drives against one of the worst FBS teams in Charlotte. Kentucky hasn’t played anyone really notable yet (sorry, Vanderbilt), so it’s a tough team to read. One thing is certain, however: it will be a battle for ball control for both teams. Given each team’s defensive prowess and slow, methodical approach to offense, the Under seems like a smart choice. Selection: Under 44 (-110)
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