Wagner’s future in Russia is at a crossroads. A month and a half after the death of Evgeny Prigozhin, the mercenary group is still without a leader: two potential leaders, one apparently supported by the Kremlin, the other by the organization’s hierarchs. The Wagner Group, seeking a new place in the Putin galaxy, must choose between two alternative paths. The first leads directly to the former chief of staff of the mercenary organization, Andrey “Sedoy” (gray hair) Troshev, the other, in the wake of a kind of family dynasty, to Prigozhin’s son Pavel.
The stakes
The match between the two is worth money and power. In recent years, from the Ukraine to Africa, there hasn’t been a theater of war that Wagner’s men haven’t trampled with their amphibians. Heritage, particularly in Africa, means mines, security contracts but also geopolitical interests, with the “lever” of migration that can be used to increase pressure on Europe’s shores.
“Wagner is pushing, Russia is getting involved, climate change is causing the desert to devour agriculture. A series of factors that combine to create an enormous problem that Italy cannot deal with alone, and I believe that even “Europe alone will have difficulty dealing with it,” declared Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani a few weeks ago.
The Institute of Study of War (ISW) spoke explicitly of dualism for Wagner’s leadership. According to the Washington-based think tank, Pavel Prigozhin has emerged as an alternative leader to Troshev, who recently appeared alongside Putin and from whom he received orders to begin forming volunteer units for the war in Ukraine. “Grey Hair” has been integrated into the Defense Ministry’s organizational chart since July last year, after he refused to follow Yevgeny Prigozhin in the June mutiny and offered his loyalty to the Kremlin.
Who is Troshev, the relationship with Putin
The 70-year-old former soldier was awarded the Order of the Red Star twice for his service in Afghanistan, the Order of Bravery twice and a medal of the Order of Merit for the Fatherland for his service in Chechnya. Then Leningrad, where he attended the Artillery Academy was added to the list of people affected by European Union sanctions in December 2021 because of his role in Syria.
According to the ISW, the close relationship between Troshev and Putin – the latter is described by many Wagner representatives as the instigator of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s assassination – sanctioned by some public firings would have sparked resentment among some hierarchs pushing for an alternative Leader.
Pavel Prigozhin is ready for the group’s return to Ukraine
The think tank cited a post published on one of the Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels that said Pavel Prigozhin had taken “command” of the Wagner Group and that the son of Putin’s former “head chef” was in talks with Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard). ) for a possible return of the group to the front in Ukraine. Return among other things, which has already been confirmed by British intelligence, according to which hundreds of mercenaries previously recruited in the Wagner group recently returned individually or in small groups to work alongside pro-Russian units, especially in the Bakhmut region , to fight .
With Pavel at the helm, the Telegram channel specifies, the group would maintain its name, symbols, ideology, structure, management and established operating principles. A member of the Russian elite, the 25-year-old owns several companies and luxury real estate complexes in St. Petersburg. According to The Independent, which cites an alleged photo of Prigozhin’s will, Pavel is set to inherit most of his father’s fortune, including the Wagner Group, real estate and $120 million. According to the British online newspaper, Prigozhin left Pavel a house in St. Petersburg, nine joint stock companies, shares in Concord and his restaurant business. The newspaper also cited company documents that show Pavel controls a company called Lakhta Plaza, which was sanctioned by the United States in March 2022.
However, sources familiar with the matter cited by ISW suggest that Pavel Prigozhin’s leadership may not be completely independent as he is believed to be under the influence of Mikhail Vatanin, the head of Wagner’s security service. This suggests a possible split within the mercenary organization, as some members rally around the young man’s leadership as an alternative to the leadership represented by Troshev, allied with the Kremlin and the Defense Ministry.
The consequences for Europe and Africa
The alleged “feud” is also interesting for Europe because of the consequences for migrants that it could have for its presence in Africa, where Wagner has been in 18 countries and is in Libya, where she supports General Khalifa Haftar, in Mali. After the withdrawal of Western military missions, it ensures the security of the presidential palace and takes part in operations against jihadist groups as well as in turbulent Central Africa, where it supports the government in exchange for licenses to exploit gold and diamond mines. But not only.
“The Russian Wagner mercenaries have been traveling with great determination in sub-Saharan Africa for some time. The group has taken advantage of the unstable situation to strengthen its presence in the Sahel. We saw them in Mali, Burkina Faso. “The conflict in Niger has, it will be able to penetrate there too,” warned exiled Nigerian Prime Minister Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou.
Andrei Kortunov, academic director of the Russian Council for International Affairs (Riac) in Moscow, spoke sharply about Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, believing that the impact “would be more visible in Africa than in Ukraine.” According to Kortunov, what happened “will not necessarily” mean the dissolution of Wagner. The analyst also expressed caution about the hypothesis that Russia’s influence may now be declining in African countries where the mercenary group is more deeply rooted. “It will depend on whether Wagner shows that it has a strong second line of leadership in Africa,” he said.
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