Major Russian attack on the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka.
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A significant Russian attack on Avdiivka is not a local operation aimed solely at repairing Ukrainian forces. The American Institute for the Study of War has revised its previous assessment, and the think tank adds that it is not prepared to spell out the precise goals and likely outcomes of Russian efforts in this area.
Russian forces have likely launched a significant and sustained offensive around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region since October 10.
The U.S. think tank observed them attacking simultaneously northwest, west and south of Avdiivka with armored strike groups, rotary-wing aircraft and concentrated artillery.
The head of the military administration of the city of Avdiivka, Vitaliy Barabash, reported that Russian forces are carrying out attacks with air support in 10 to 12 directions around the settlement.
The think tank says: As of October 12, Russian forces have not made any major breakthroughs near Avdiivka and are unlikely to immediately cut off Ukrainian forces in the city.
Ukrainian military observers called the Russian offensive operations against Avdiivka a “major attack” and noted that Russian forces used an unusually large number of armored vehicles in the fight.
Geotagged images suggest that Russian forces likely lost at least a tactical battalion group’s worth of armored vehicles during offensive operations around Avdiivka.
The institute admits that its previous assessment was likely overestimated and that Russian forces may not apply lessons learned from previous offensive operations near Vuhledar in February 2023 or near Kiev in March 2022, when Ukrainian forces defeated an advancing column of Russian ones Armored vehicles destroyed in a disorderly manner.