China’s military is taking increasingly dangerous measures to deter U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific region, including maneuvers to intimidate American aircraft, while strengthening its nuclear capabilities, the Pentagon said in a report released Thursday.
The United States has seen more “forced and risky” airstrikes by the Chinese military in the past two years than in the previous decade, the Defense Department said in its annual report to Congress on China’s military power.
At the same time, China continues to build its strategic nuclear arsenal and most likely amassed 500 nuclear warheads in May, the Pentagon said, an increase of about 100 from last year’s estimate.
Risky maneuvers
Since fall 2021, the Pentagon report says, the US has registered more than 180 interceptions of US aircraft by Chinese forces in the region.
Beijing has long opposed U.S. military aircraft and ships operating in international air and sea areas near China.
China has become increasingly assertive in the region, from building military infrastructure in the disputed South China Sea to buzzing planes from the United States, Canada and other Western allies. Such moves risk a mid-air crash and a major crisis.
Among the examples cited in the report and a separate Pentagon press release earlier this week were a Chinese fighter jet speeding toward a U.S. military aircraft, diving under its nose and later approaching as close as 10 feet below; a Chinese plane that flew within 20 feet of the nose of a U.S. plane that was taking evasive maneuvers to avoid a collision; and a Chinese fighter jet that fired eight flares while just 900 feet from a U.S. plane.
Beijing did not immediately comment on the Pentagon report. Chinese officials have previously portrayed the airborne intercepts as a sensible response to foreign military patrols that threatened the country’s security.
Taiwan
Like his predecessors, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has said he seeks peaceful unification with Taiwan, but he has also said he would not rule out the use of military force.
But over the past year, China has increased its military pressure on Taiwan, sending jets, drones, bombers and other aircraft further and in greater numbers to expand its presence around the island. It has warned it could impose a blockade to stall Taiwan.
The Pentagon report said China’s decades-long effort to modernize its military had “further widened the capability gap compared to Taiwan’s military.” It also noted that in the event of a protracted war with Taiwan, China could seek to end the conflict by escalating “cyberspace, space or nuclear activities.”
Some U.S. commanders have previously suggested that Mr. Xi may have a specific time in mind for attempting a military takeover of Taiwan. However, the new report emphasizes that an invasion of the island would pose a “significant political and military risk” to Mr. Xi and the Chinese Communist Party.
“I don’t think China has a timetable for unification, but it does have a timetable for improving the military strength of the People’s Liberation Army,” said Ying-yu Lin, a military expert at Tamkang University in Taipei. “We cannot say that the People’s Liberation Army will definitely attack Taiwan as its strength increases. The two must be clearly distinguished.”
Nuclear structure
Mr. Xi has significantly accelerated the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal, thereby reducing the large gap with the United States and Russia. Beijing does not provide details about how many nuclear weapons it has, and the Pentagon’s annual report is one of the few international sources to provide detailed assessments of China’s expansion.
China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, remains on track to have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, most of them for missiles and other weapons capable of hitting the American mainland, according to Pentagon estimates.
The most striking evidence of China’s nuclear buildup in recent years has been three clusters of missile silos unearthed in the deserts of northern China. The Pentagon report noted that construction of the silos was completed last year and that “at least some” ICBMs had been installed inside.
The Pentagon report also cited another development that could worry American military planners: that China “may be exploring the development” of conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missiles. Such missiles, the report said, could hit the mainland United States and “would pose significant risks to strategic stability.”