In late October, three armed rebel groups captured more than 150 military bases from the Southeast Asian country’s army as part of their “1027” offensive (the offensive was launched on October 27, note) in northeastern Shan state. They also took control of several cities in the region, according to members of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), one of the three groups.
Together with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA), they also captured and blocked several border crossings – including Chinshwehaw, the second largest border post between Myanmar and neighboring China – and roads through the which the majority of the population carries out overland trade with China, which is so important for Myanmar. Furthermore, several police stations were occupied and several army tanks were confiscated. The information could not be independently verified.
Based on BBC and other media reports (as of November 7, 2023)
UN: Tens of thousands of people displaced
According to the UN Emergency Relief Office (OCHA), tens of thousands of people have been displaced since the fighting began and around 50,000 have been forced to flee their homes in northeastern Shan State alone. Another 40,000 people were displaced in the neighboring Sagaing region and Kachin state.
Furthermore, at least 17 civilians have died since the violent fighting began and another 40 have been injured. The blockade of important transport routes has also led to bottlenecks in essential goods. According to OCHA, all internet and telephone connections are also down outside of Lashio, the largest city in Shan State, where Myanmar’s northeastern military command is also located.
President warns of division in the country
The junta-controlled army responded with air strikes and artillery fire, but was unable to recover lost ground. According to the MNDAA, an entire company would also have surrendered. The president of the junta government, Myint Swe, warned on Thursday that the country would collapse.
“If the government does not effectively deal with incidents in the border region, it will divide the country into different parts,” he said, as quoted by the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar newspaper. He also accused the MNDAA rebels of financing their offensive through drug trafficking, which they denied.
MNDAA fighters from online media AP/”The Kokang” pose with their flag on a captured army armored vehicle
The worst setback since the coup
The fierce fighting is the military junta’s worst setback since the February 2021 coup, which overthrew the democratically elected government and imprisoned Prime Minister Aung San Suu Kyi.
Since then, chaotic and violent conditions have prevailed in the country. Hundreds of people were killed and thousands arrested in subsequent protests. Since then, NGOs have repeatedly accused the junta of atrocities against civilians.
Portal After the military coup in 2021, mass protests were formed that were brutally repressed
Drug production and “fraud factories”
The Shan State region of northeastern Myanmar, in particular, resembles a lawless zone. It covers almost a quarter of the country’s total area and is considered one of the world’s largest producers of illegal drugs, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said in a report. Recently, the business of casinos and “fraud factories” has been booming there, where everything from illegal online gambling to cryptocurrency fraud is carried out.
According to a report by the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), 120,000 people in Myanmar alone are forced to work in these “fraud factories”. Since Myanmar’s independence in 1948, in addition to conflict and poverty, the region has also been under the control of several warlords and drug traffickers who fight each other and the army.
Moment for the opposition
In addition to many other small ethnic groups, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) is another actor in the region. It is also a rebel group, but generally avoids armed clashes due to a ceasefire agreed with the military in 1989 and claims to maintain a neutral position between the junta and opposition forces.
And then there is the National Unity Government (NUG), which was formed from the government elected before the coup and which now acts in opposition to the military junta. It operates in exile, but also has a military wing in Myanmar, the People’s Defense Forces. Due to progress made by rebel groups, these fighters recently launched attacks again against government troops and spoke of a new boost in their long-desperate attempt to overthrow the junta.
APA/AFP The city of Lashio is home to the army’s military command for northeastern Myanmar
But something that makes these attacks particularly significant, as the BBC wrote, is the fact that the rebel factions of the MNDAA, the TNLA and the AA in Shan State have joined forces for the first time to overthrow the military junta and restore democracy. order. This can also be seen in the fact that they call themselves the “Brotherhood Alliance”.
China wants to close “fraud factories”.
From an international point of view, however, the country is almost completely isolated. In the northeastern region of Shan State, however, it borders, among other things, Thailand and China. The latter is also one of the few countries that maintains diplomatic contacts with the military junta and therefore maintains its distance from the NUG.
However, for a year now, the Chinese government has been urging the military junta to do more against the many “scam factories,” most of which are run by Chinese cartels. They became an inconvenience to Beijing after the brutal treatment of human trafficking victims caught in the factories became public.
Contacts with junta and rebels
China itself also finds itself in a difficult situation in other respects. On the one hand, it maintains ties with the military junta, but on the other hand, it traditionally maintains good contacts with rebel groups, especially the UWSA.
In some groups, ethnic minorities from China are also represented – mainly due to geographic proximity. To conquer China, rebel groups have promised their eastern neighbor that they will also close “fraud factories” as part of their actions.
APA/AFP One of the border crossings with China near the city of Muse
However, the rebel groups’ long-term objective is to gain as much ground as possible in order to achieve the best possible starting position for negotiations on a new structure for Myanmar promised by the NUG in the event of a possible collapse of the military government.