The St. Louis Cardinals appear to be pretty serious about not repeating their 91-loss last-place finish in 2023, as they were among the most aggressive teams in the early days of free agency, signing two depth starters in Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn , before winning one of the biggest prizes on the market this winter in starter Sonny Gray. Gray is coming off a 5-WAR season for the Minnesota Twins and finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting earlier this month.
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Cardinals sign Sonny Gray to three-year deal: What it means for the 2024 rotation
St. Louis’ pitching was the team’s real disadvantage in 2023, allowing 5.12 runs per game, only better than two teams that entered the year as non-contenders, Washington and Colorado. The Cardinals’ only starter to post an ERA below 3.50 was Jordan Montgomery, whom they traded to Texas at the deadline in exchange for two solid prospects; Their only other starter under a 4.00 ERA was Steven Matz, who has never qualified for the ERA title in any season of his career and did not pitch after mid-August due to a lat strain.
They need innings, which Lynn and Gibson should provide, but they also need quality innings, and that’s where Gray comes in. His 2023 season was worth over 5 WARs in both systems, and some of that, particularly his very low home run rate (0.4 HR/9), probably isn’t sustainable going forward, there are reasons to believe that he can continue to pitch at a high level thanks to the new shape of his slider and recent improvements to his fastball command and control. He pitched 184 innings in 2023, surpassed only by Miles Mikolas among Cardinals pitchers (though Montgomery reached that mark after the trade). He was generally durable throughout his career, despite concerns about his size that dated back to his time as a top prospect in high school.
With the out-pitch slider, high-spin four-seamer, the control he’s shown over the last two years, and his overall athleticism, Gray is the type of pitcher I’m looking for long-term contract would like to bet. The Cardinals opted for a higher AAV, $25 million per year, and gave him a three-year deal, which is a bit shorter for a starting pitcher of Gray’s caliber but reflects the fact that he turns 36 in the final year of the contract . I think it’s a great thing for the team and the player, even while acknowledging that predicting a pitcher’s health is a task that even fools would despise.
The Cardinals don’t appear to be done making plays yet, and they still need to address their crowded outfield and find a shortstop for 2023 (I’m assuming Masyn Winn will start in Triple A, since his glove and arm are ready are, but his bat doesn’t seem like it), but with these signings and two starter prospects in Triple A in Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy, I think they can say they’re done adding pitching.
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The Tigers add Kenta Maeda while the Twins are now looking for starters
Kenta Maeda remains in the AL Central. (Nick Wosika/USA Today)
The Detroit Tigers acquired another former Twins starter, right-hander Kenta Maeda, signing him to a two-year, $24 million contract that I think may undervalue him, even given his age and lack of durability.
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Tigers and RHP Kenta Maeda agree to a two-year contract
Maeda returned this April after missing 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. At first she felt terrible, then she went on IL for a few months due to a triceps strain. After his return, he made 16 starts, posting a 3.36 ERA/3.94 FIP with 103 strikeouts and 25 walks over 88 1/3 innings. If Maeda had done that for a full season, he would be making $20-$25 million per year, if not more. He hasn’t pitched this much in a season since 2019, when he was a starter/swingman for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Aside from his stellar 2020 campaign when he finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting, he hasn’t reached the level of his second half in 2023 since his rookie year in the MLB in 2016, so I’m contesting If he doesn’t, his second half of 2023 will simply double and be one of the AL’s best starters. I maintain that I think he can make 20-25 starts and be an above-average 2-3 WAR pitcher, which would be a huge help to the Tigers, whose lineup is starting to look pretty good but whose rotation currently includes Tarik Skubal and four AI generated pitchers.
The Twins have now lost two starters from their 2023 rotation, including their No. 1 pick in name and value, and only have three true starters left on the 40-man roster at this point: Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. They have several former starters turned backups, including Louie Varland (who was very home run-prone as a starter last year) and Jordan Balazovic (who hasn’t yet shown enough command to even be a good backup), but if they Want to compete Even in a victorious AL Central, they will likely need to add an outside starter via a trade or free agency. The good news, in some ways, is that they have some position player depth to trade from, at least enough to make a major pitching move if they decide to go that route.
(Top photo of Sonny Gray: Jay Biggerstaff / USA Today)