A two-speed European Council in which negotiations on Ukraine's EU accession get the green light, but agreement on the common budget stalls and the revision of the multiannual financial framework 2021-2027 gets the yes of 26 member states but not met with Hungary's veto and will be discussed again at an extraordinary meeting scheduled for January. In the background, the reform of the Stability Pact seems to be falling behind with the agreement that was taken for granted in the Ecofin Council next week via video conference. And since the Italian government takes a two-speed line on this point. In fact, that night in the hotel bar Amigo, Giorgia Meloni and Emmanuel Macron not only limited themselves to toasting with red wine and champagne, but also talked about the reform of household rules and hypothesized to join forces to officially submit a request Suspension of the Stability Pact for six months. Therefore, until June 31, 2024, which would entail sterilizing the excessive deficit infringement procedure against Italy (and France, which is in the same situation), currently scheduled after the European elections. However, in the event of a suspension, it would be discussed again in the autumn and the dossier would fall entirely under the responsibility of the new EU Commission, which will then be fully operational.
For this reason, the tones used by Meloni in Brussels are much softer than those used by Giancarlo Giorgetti, guest at the Atreyu party in Rome. When the Minister of Economic Affairs goes so far as to define Europe as “a condominium” that is “incapable of making decisions” and sees “slim” chances of an agreement next week (in addition to criticizing the super bonus of 110%, which he compares to Chernobyl). because it is “radioactive” and morphine because “it had to be reduced immediately”), the Prime Minister prefers to define herself as “not pessimistic”. He obviously does this without much enthusiasm, but the play of nuances shows an attempt not to dramatize the ongoing negotiation. So when they ask him whether the veto hypothesis is still in play, he prefers to avoid a clear answer. “If we put it like that, it's not a good way to seek synthesis with others,” he says simply. Then he also takes a small step forward on the well-known question of ratifying the ESM and avoids any either/or. “It certainly makes a difference for us,” he explains, “to know which pact we have, because the tools all come together.” But compared to the ESM, there is no dimension of blackmail, of saying if you don’t does, we don't give that. Nobody has ever asked a question like that. Meloni avoids going into detail about the negotiations and the numbers on which the ongoing tug-of-war between France-Italy on the one hand and Germany on the other is based. And it repeats the line of Palazzo Chigi. “The only thing I cannot do,” he explains, “is to give my consent to a pact that not I but no Italian government could respect because it would be unfair and not useful for us.” And that is why the possibility of a suspension on the Paris-Rome axis was discussed. “As far as the stability pact is concerned,” explains Meloni, “there are various convergences with Macron regarding common interests.” And, the French president confirms, talks are “ongoing” with Germany and Italy to find a compromise solution for the reform of the stability and growth pact “improve”.
Meanwhile, the Rome-based Bank of Italy – “in line with signs of prolonged economic weakness” – cut its GDP estimates for 2024 to +0.6%, ahead of a forecast increase to +1.1% in 2025 and 2026 corresponds.