The Bills can have a spot until Sunday Night Football kicks off
According to the New York Times, the Buffalo Bills have an 89 percent chance of reaching the postseason. A win over the New England Patriots would increase that rate to 98%. Pretty good. But it's still not all they need to make the postseason.
The Bills have received help from other teams in each of the last few weeks, and they could use a little more of a shot to secure a playoff spot this weekend and prepare for a big game in Week 18.
With some help against the AFC North and AFC South, Buffalo can clinch a Wild Card spot this weekend. With a little help from the Baltimore Ravens, the Bills can stay alive in a winner-take-all AFC East championship game against the Miami Dolphins.
Before we dive into the rooting list, here are the current AFC rankings for Week 17:
AFC rankings
1. x-Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
2. x-Miami Dolphins (11-4)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars* (8-7, 3-1 vs. HOU+JAX)
5. Cleveland Browns (10-5)
6. Buffalo Bills (9-6)
7. Indianapolis Colts*# (8-7, 1-2 vs. JAX+HOU, win over HOU, win over PIT)
8. Houston Texans*# (8-7, 1-2 vs. IND+JAX, loss vs. IND, win vs. PIT)
9. Pittsburgh Steelers# (8-7, two wins over CIN. Loss against IND, loss against HOU)
10. Cincinnati Bengals# (8-7, two losses vs. PIT)
11. Las Vegas Raiders (7-8, win over DEN)
12. Denver Broncos (7-8, loss to LV)
13. e-New York Jets (6-9)
14. e-Tennessee Titans (5-10, win over LAC)
15. e-Los Angeles Chargers (5-10, loss to TEN)
16.e-New England Patriots (4-11)
x – Baltimore and Miami have secured a spot in the playoffs
* – The first tiebreaker is the AFC South. The Jaguars win the division tiebreaker thanks to their head-to-head records against Houston and Indianapolis. Indianapolis has the direct tiebreaker against the Texans.
# – In the Wild Card race, division tiebreakers apply first. Pittsburgh beat the Bengals and Indianapolis has a win over Houston, so the Steelers and Colts go into the tiebreaker first. Indy won against Pittsburgh and is in the final playoff spot. There is a tiebreaker between the Texans and the Steelers, which Houston wins with a straight win.
e – The Titans, Jets, Chargers and Patriots are eliminated from the postseason.
Here are all the encounters in order of importance:
Buffalo Bills (H) over New England Patriots
Sunday, December 31st, 1pm EST
The Bills can still return to the playoffs in Week 18, but hey, let's not test that theory. A win for the Bills brings them incredibly close to their first goal of the season, namely qualifying for the playoffs. They lost to the Mac Jones Patriots earlier this year and can't afford another slip-up.
Seattle Seahawks (H) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, December 31st, 4:05 pm EST
The Seahawks are also fighting for a playoff spot. So let's hope they can win again.
Kansas City Chiefs (H) over Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 31st, 4:25 pm EST
In a two-way race for a playoff spot, the Bills are tied above the Chiefs. So I have no problem supporting this result if it can help the Bills get the win this weekend.
Carolina Panthers over Jacksonville Jaguars (H)
Sunday, December 31st, 1pm EST
The Jaguars could be without Trevor Lawrence in this game — but if he plays, it will at least hurt him. Pretty easy when it's an NFC team versus an AFC team at this point.
Tennessee Titans over Houston Texans (H)
Sunday, December 31st, 1pm EST
Las Vegas Raiders over Indianapolis Colts (H)
Sunday, December 31st, 1pm EST
We put these games together because it's a package deal to win. If either the Bengals or Steelers lose, a combination where both the Colts and Texans lose would be crucial for Buffalo as Indianapolis and Houston play each other in Week 18.
New York Jets over Cleveland Browns (H)
Thursday Night Football
A Browns loss would keep the five seeds in play if the Ravens lose to the Dolphins, so it's a pretty easy decision on Thursday.
Baltimore Ravens (H) over the Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 31st, 1pm EST
This one is only lower than the others because the first goal must mean a spot in the playoffs. Ideally, the Ravens and Bills win, setting up a big AFC East Championship game between the Dolphins and Ravens in Week 18. This game is extremely important.
Dallas Cowboys over Detroit Lions
New York Giants over Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles over Arizona Cardinals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New Orleans Saints
Washington Commanders over San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers over Denver Broncos
I haven't seen a tiebreaker scenario where strength of victory or strength of schedule plays a role, but just in case, these are these games.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
I don't see a pick in these games.
Buffalo's scenarios for this weekend from best to worst case:
- Secure a playoff spot and compete in a Week 18 AFC East title game
- Bills win and Dolphins lose for an AFC East title game in Week 18 plus a likely Wild Card berth
- Win and keep places 5-7 in the game to get a wild card (Bills & Dolphins win)
- Win and keep 6th and 7th spots in play to get a wild card (Bills, Dolphins and Browns win)
- Lose but keep 6th and 7th places in the game
The Bills cannot be eliminated this weekend.
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