As companies look to integrate the innovations of artificial intelligence into their work systems to automate a variety of tasks that humans now perform, analysis is accumulating about what impact it will ultimately have on the world of work. The weak point of the predictions is the early phase that AI is still in, but if it is not too far away, it will change the way companies are organized. Most recently, the International Monetary Fund warned of this impending revolution: it estimates that in advanced economies about 60% of jobs are exposed in some way to risks related to AI, with this percentage falling to 40% in this case, according to the IMF, are the emerging economies and only 26% of low-income countries are “less willing” to take advantage of their benefits.
The study raises a key dilemma: Will AI be a complementary technology that facilitates the work of highly skilled workers, or will it replace them and leave them without jobs and salaries? The answer is neither black nor white: About half of workers “could be negatively affected,” while the rest would improve their productivity by having tools that make their jobs easier but do not replace them. That is, the best-trained workers who continued to be necessary in other developments – the Luddites who destroyed the machines that threatened their jobs in the 19th century Industrial Revolution were workers – are now not fully protected by their skills . “Unlike previous waves of automation, which had their greatest impact on middle-skilled workers, AI’s displacement risk also extends to those earning higher salaries,” the IMF notes.
Those who earn the most are vulnerable, but those who ride the wave instead of drowning will emerge stronger. “The benefits of AI are likely to fall disproportionately on higher-income earners, particularly in countries such as India and, to a lesser extent, the United States, where complementarity in the highest-earning segment is steadily increasing.”
No one seems completely safe from becoming an accessory. Although, paradoxically, this will be positive for the global economy if you look at the big numbers. “We are on the verge of a technological revolution that could increase productivity, boost global growth and increase incomes around the world,” says the company's chief executive Kristalina Georgieva. However, there is a dark side. “It could replace jobs and increase inequality,” warns the Bulgarian head of state.
That workers may continue to be needed in less developed countries may be good news for them in the short term, but not for their economies, which may be left behind. “Many of these countries do not have the infrastructure or skilled workforce to take advantage of the benefits of AI, increasing the risk that the technology could worsen inequality between nations over time,” the report said.
Different strategies
How should the state act in the face of this phenomenon? The reaction, according to the IMF, must be adapted to the circumstances. While the most advanced and developed emerging economies need to focus on improving regulation – something the EU has been at the forefront of – redistributing workers who are being replaced by machines and protecting those who are being laid off and therefore their source of income lose. Emerging and developing countries need to focus on building their own digital infrastructure and training people who can use it to bridge the digital divide and stem the loss of income due to their lower productivity.
“In most scenarios, AI is likely to worsen overall inequality,” Georgieva admits. In his opinion, it will be necessary to formulate measures to maintain social peace. “It is critical that countries establish comprehensive social safety nets and provide retraining programs for at-risk workers.”
In these first phases of the landing of the most advanced artificial intelligences, an avalanche of predictions is looming. In the same year, the OECD published that vulnerable jobs accounted for 27% of the workforce in its member countries. And the American investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates that 300 million jobs will disappear in whole or in part as a result of the emergence of AI. The positions affected are very diverse and range from bank tellers, stock market operators – replaced by algorithms -, several office jobs, medical staff – AI can help diagnose cancer and health problems – to others for whom higher education is not essential, such as B. Customer service – replaced by chatbots – or drivers – when autonomous cars become widespread.
For now, the use of the conditional surrounds every prediction made by the experts, including that of the IMF. As he begins to assess the impact by age group, he emphasizes that young people are more familiar with using technology, which could help them deal with AI more easily, but at the same time warns that the demand for young people with education is increasing top could decline if their profiles become expendable.
An ideal scenario also appears on its pages, in which the advantages would outweigh the disadvantages. “If productivity increases are large enough, income levels could rise for most workers.” Leisure time could also increase. Artificial intelligence has revived the old claim to further shorten the working day. The question is whether this new era of leisure domination, in which machines do the work instead of humans without sweat, hours or discomfort, can be successful enough to adequately compensate the losers of change.
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