Russia currently fires fifteen times more rockets, drones and shells than Ukraine. A disproportionate fire report that doesn't tell the whole story.
Published: January 29, 2024 at 4:06 p.m. Reading time: 1 min
After nearly two years of high-intensity war, Ukraine is showing worrying signs that its ammunition supplies are no longer sufficient. An observation observed in the fire report (RAPFEU) between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. In recent days this RAPFEU has been 15 to 1: if the Russians fire 15 missiles, drones or grenades, the Ukrainians only fire one.
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This disproportionate rate of fire is no surprise and Ukraine had already reached it by mid-December. This is due to both a shortage affecting the Ukrainian army and the abundance from which the Russian army is now benefiting. The lack of ammunition forces Ukrainians to fire fewer bullets, more precisely, to wage war “against the economy.”
“The ammunition crisis is reaching its peak. At such a level, Ukraine is forced to retreat from certain positions. But the structural difficulties of land maneuvers lead to advances at the speed of an infantryman,” notes observer @Escortert, a reliable and documented source on the war in Ukraine on X.
Forced to retreat
A difficult bet to compete against a Russia that can count on the continuous supply of grenades from North Korea: more than a million grenades were delivered between September and November. Satellite images of the front line also show intensive shelling of Ukrainian positions. Unable to retaliate, the Ukrainians were forced to retreat, especially in the north, where the Russians advanced toward the major city of Koupiansk.
At the same time, the Ukrainian army, which has been paralyzed by Donald Trump for months, has to operate without American military assistance. The former American president and candidate for the next November elections is demanding that Republican elected officials first seek an immigration agreement before voting for aid to Kyiv. A cynical blackmail that obviously plays into the hands of the Russian army and Vladimir Putin.
Not all bad news
However, this RAPFEU must be put into perspective: if the Russians shoot 15 times more, they also suffer twice as many material losses as the Ukrainians. A paradox that can be explained by what the two armies do with their grenades. Where the Ukrainians shoot to strike, the Russians bomb massively to smash and destroy. An effective strategy, but not very precise and very costly in the case of bombs.
A Ukrainian artilleryman from the 93rd Brigade reloads a French 120mm mortar in Bakhmout in February 2023. -AFP
Another point to the advantage of the Ukrainians: This RAPFEU of 15:1 does not take into account the explosive drones at the front. “The numbers (…) prove Ukraine's superiority in the area of proximity drones, the RAPFEU would be 4:3 in favor of Ukraine, with a structurally established trend around this ratio,” states @Escortert.
“The use of suicide drones is interesting,” he also says. The Ukrainians are primarily targeting logistics routes to contain the terrible Russian RAPFEU. The Russians attack the positions of the Ukrainian defense line in order to break through it. »
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