Don Nelson won his 1333rd game as an NBA head coach in 2010. This made him the best winning coach of all time. After that, he only won two games before eventually retiring, leaving his name in the history books. He held that record for a full 12 years before Gregg Popovich overtook him with the No. 1336 win on Friday. Popovich, like Nelson, is not expected to stay long. He may retire at the end of the year, he may scour the San Antonio sideline a few more times, but at 73, he probably doesn’t have many wins left in his illustrious career. It won’t be long before Popovich’s final score is entered into the record book.
That number will set a new benchmark, and given his 300-win lead over every other current manager, it could take more than 12 years for his contemporaries to finally catch up to him. So, now that Popovic’s record is official, let’s see what current coaches could one day challenge his win total and what it would take them to actually get there. In order for a coach to get through to Popovich, first of all, he will need three things:
- Longevity. Winning over 1300 NBA games means coaching over 1300 NBA games. You’d be surprised how few trainers actually do this. Even if the coach had gone undefeated, it would have taken him over 16 full seasons to reach Popovich. In a more likely scenario in which this coach does not go undefeated, we are probably looking at a 30-year career out of all possible record holders.
- Victory. Yes, another obvious fact… the best coach in the history of the NBA must actually win games. But it’s not just volume that matters. This is speed. It took Nelson 2,398 games to set his record. Popovich set it at 2030. He won so consistently and at such historic pace that he managed to set the record despite not coaching his first NBA game until he was 47 years old. It is not enough to be decent for a long time. You have to coach reliably great teams, which brings us to the third factor.
- Luck. Popovich constantly thanks Tim Duncan for his successful career. If ping pong balls bounced differently, this story could be about Rick Pitino. Competence and longevity aside, any coach looking to go after Popovic must have some luck.
With that in mind, here are a few coaches to watch out for as possible record holders.
old heads
If any of the coaches is going to immediately break the record, it will be Doc Rivers. He is currently 304 wins behind Popovich, but he is 13 years younger. He took his first few victories in Orlando before long struggles in Boston and Los Angeles took him to Philadelphia. Now that Joel Embiid is in his prime, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t average 50 wins or so over the next few seasons and make some real headway in this business if his team stays healthy. Even if things go awry in Philadelphia, his championship with the Celtics all but guarantees him another opportunity if he wants it. If Rivers is interested in breaking the record, he should have ample opportunity to do so. It would also be appropriate. Rivers played for the last Spurs team not coached by Popovich in 1995/96.
A much longer shot would be Rick Carlyle. He’s a year older than Rivers and, unlike his Philadelphia counterpart, he doesn’t have an established superstar to help him consistently win matches. He had one in Dallas. If he managed to maintain a relationship with Luka Doncic, he could become a real participant in history. Instead, he finds himself nearly 500 wins behind Popovich. Never say never. Maybe the Pacers will win the lottery and give Carlisle the star of the generation he needs. But for now, Rivers looks like he has a much better chance.
Installed Veterans
The advantage of Erik Spoelstra is that he started his coaching career at a very young age. He was promoted to the top job at the age of 38, and his two championship titles gave him a guaranteed job for life. Now 51 years old and about halfway to Popovic – 652 wins in total – the only real question is how long he plans to stay in his current position.
It’s not as certain as you might think. Pat Riley would have set an unbeaten record if he had kept his coaching position into old age. He ended his career with 1,210 wins but coached his last game at age 63 and nearly retired from coaching at 50. He stayed with the Heat as their general manager, but at 76, he’s unlikely to hold the position forever. Spoelstra had a hugely successful succession plan 14 years ago. It wouldn’t be surprising if he was promoted again to replace Riley and, in turn, hired a new coach to lead the Heat on the floor. If Spoelstra wants to continue coaching indefinitely, he can give himself a real chance here. There’s just no guarantee he’ll want to stay here that long.
Tai Liu is more like a life coach. At 44, he probably has three more decades of coaching ahead of him, if he wants to. His 2016 championship will get him a job and he currently has a Clippers roster that is absolutely loaded when he is healthy.
But Liu has a long way to go. He has only won 210 games in his career so far and has been unlucky with time. A six-game sack in 2018-19 likely cost him two years as head coach. If he had left the Cavaliers at the end of the 2018 season, he might have been hired by another team right away. It also cannot be said that his Clippers are built for endless struggle. Kawhi Leonard is 30 years old and has a torn ACL. Paul George is 31 and has a torn ligament. He will fight when he has a full squad, he just won’t have it for much longer. This makes his future too uncertain to predict a real record.
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New generation
It’s too early to announce any of these coaches as real record-breaking candidates, but they’re young and built for periods of sustained success. Taylor Jenkins is only 37 years old, has already won over 100 victories and, most importantly, right now he has 22-year-old Ja Morant in his lineup. If all goes well, the Grizzlies will struggle for the next decade and Jenkins should be in a position similar to Spoelstra’s. If you want a little more theory, Mark Degno is also 37 years old, and as bad as his Thunder team is playing right now, their crowded draft box makes it almost impossible for them not to become contenders. They may never get a franchise-changing star, but these choices give them almost limitless flexibility to add veterans and update their roster. Thunder will be good for a long time to come.
Again, it’s too early to assume either one of them is going to run from Popovich, but they both fit the profile of what a record holder should look like. They are young and in a relatively stable and promising basketball position. If they do well in these situations, they will likely stay on the job long enough to earn a significant number of wins. Will these victories be enough? History says it’s unlikely. After all, there is a reason why Popovich set this record. He is a once-in-a-generation trainer, and it will take a once-in-a-generation trainer to catch him.