TUNIS | President Kais Saied on Tuesday announced Tunisia’s entry into a “new phase” after an almost certain “Yes” victory in a referendum on a new constitution that significantly strengthens its prerogatives and is seen as dangerous to Tunisia’s fragile democracy.
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In a late-night speech delivered to his supporters gathered in central Tunis, he said that “Tunisians taught the world a lesson, a lesson in history.” “The referendum will make it possible to move from a situation of despair to a situation of hope.”
Tunisia, which is facing an economic crisis exacerbated by Covid and the war in Ukraine on which it depends for its wheat imports, has been very polarized since Mr Saied, who was democratically elected in 2019, on July 25, 2021 has assumed all powers.
The first official results are not expected before the afternoon, but according to the polling institute Sigma Conseil, the “yes” won with 92.3% of the votes.
With most of the major opposition parties and especially the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha movement boycotting Monday’s elections, voter turnout was very low but higher than expected.
According to preliminary figures, 27.5% of the 9.3 million registered voters voted in a country where abstention is traditionally high and turnout is generally below 40%.
The National Salvation Front, a coalition of opponents including Ennahdha, estimated that “75% of Tunisians refused to agree to the coup project launched by Kais Saied a year ago.”
For analyst Youssef Cherif, voter turnout was “well over 10% (expected by some analysts) but well under 50%. And above all, most voted for the man (Kais Saied) or against his opponents, but not for his lyrics.
Analyst Abdellatif Hannachi also believes the vote was a test of Mr Saied’s popularity, noting that “although surface (turnout) figures are low, given the election was held in the summer, in the holidays and in the warmth”.
This outcome will allow Mr Saied to “extend his influence in the country” and “disregard other political forces,” he said.
horns and flags
As soon as the Sigma Conseil estimates were announced on national television, hundreds of the President’s supporters came down to celebrate “his victory” on Bourguiba Avenue, sounding their horns or waving the national flag.
At around 01:00 GMT, Kais Saied appeared in front of the cheering crowd. “Tunisia has entered a new phase,” he said, assuring that turnout “would have been higher if voting had taken place over two days”.
The voters are above all “the most damaged middle classes, adults who feel economically, politically and socially betrayed,” analyzed for AFP the director of Sigma Conseil, Hassen Zargouni.
The new Basic Law grants the head of state far-reaching privileges and breaks with the parliamentary system that has been in place since 2014.
The president, who cannot be recalled, appoints the head of government and the ministers and can dismiss them at will. He can submit legislative texts to Parliament that have “priority”. As a counterweight to the current Assembly of Deputies, a second chamber will represent the regions.
Sadok Belaïd, the lawyer hired by Mr Saied to draft a constitution, rejected the final text because he believed it could “pave the way to a dictatorial regime”.
“All Powers”
President Saied, 64, sees his revision of the constitution as a continuation of the “course correction” begun on July 25, 2021, when he sacked his prime minister, citing political and economic deadlocks, and froze parliament before dissolving in March.
The new text “gives the president almost all powers and dismantles all systems and institutions that can control him,” Benarbia, regional director of the International Commission of Jurists ICJ, told AFP.
If spaces of freedom are guaranteed, “after Kais Saied” there could be a question of a return to a dictatorship like that of Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, who was overthrown in a popular uprising in 2011, Mr Cherif told AFP.
For many experts, Mr Saied’s political future will also depend on his ability to revive an economy in a catastrophic situation with very high unemployment, falling purchasing power and a rising poverty rate (4 million people).