The open-ended war in Ukraine has challenged the Pentagon’s long-term planning, with senior US defense officials expected to revise the way it deploys military forces in Eastern Europe and the Baltics amid growing concerns about Russia’s broader ambitions will.
Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday that he favors creating permanent bases for US troops in the region but rotating personnel there “so that you get the effect of permanence,” to less Costs because expenses such as family housing and schools are not involved.
“I think a lot of our allies, especially those like the Baltics or Poland or Romania, are very willing to establish permanent bases,” Milley said in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee. “You will build them and pay for them.”
Speaking to the same committee last week, Air Force Gen. Tod D. Wolters, who heads US European Command, said NATO’s existing policy of rotating troops through Eastern Europe “needs to be changed” and that countries there are “very ready.” . to permanently take over NATO forces.
The high-level discussions come as Russian forces have been hampered in their attempt to seize most major cities in Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv. As a result, US officials have noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin is revising his goals and intends to pour more combat power into eastern Ukraine.
In Putin’s Ukraine swamp, echoes of Soviet failure in Afghanistan
The Pentagon has dramatically increased the number of US troops in Europe, from about 60,000 to more than 100,000, in the wake of Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine and the subsequent invasion. At the height of the Cold War in the 1950s, the US military presence across Europe exceeded 400,000.
Senior US defense officials have cautiously described the path they will take while defining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a generational event that has upended the global order. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said last week that the United States would consult its allies “when the time is right” to decide what the appropriate security posture is in Europe “no matter how this war ends,” and that the Biden – Administration open to it is discussed whether there must be a “larger permanent presence”.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday the issue is likely to be raised at a NATO summit in June.
“Our goal,” Austin said, “is to ensure that we continue to reassure our allies and partners, particularly those who are on the eastern flank, and particularly our allies in the Baltics, in the Baltic region.”
Deliberations are complicated by US assessments that China, not Russia, is the greater long-term concern for US security.
A senior US defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the Pentagon’s plans, said in an interview that “there will be changes in attitudes in Europe” as a result of the war in Ukraine, and “some of it could include the US presence.” But Eastern Europe is also being reinforced by troops from other NATO countries, which are calculating what it will take to deter Russia in the months and years to come, the official said.
“Right now, I think we’re going to be able to run and chew gum at the same time and make the Indo-Pacific a priority arena, while also understanding that we need to… build a little bit of mass in Europe,” he said Officer.
Russia’s failures in Ukraine fill the Pentagon with renewed confidence
Elbridge Colby, a former defense official in the Trump administration, said there’s a “really serious concern” about what the trendline might look like, given the United States’ “regard of keeping additional forces in Europe as a result.” the Russian invasion is bad for the military balance in Asia.”
While the Pentagon has relied heavily on the US Army to bolster security in Eastern Europe and would likely rely on the Navy and Air Force in the Pacific, there’s more overlap than people realize, Colby said. The 82nd Airborne Division, which has thousands of troops stationed in Poland, needs close air support and other high-end capabilities that are also needed elsewhere, he said.
“I honestly think the president has this vision: ‘We are America. We can do anything,’” Colby said of President Biden. “But there are very real and immediate limitations. We have to face them and adapt instead of ignoring them.”
The United States is “not quite at the point yet” where it might decide to build a new base or bases in Eastern Europe, but the issue is clearly “up in the wind,” said Jim Townsend, a former Obama administration official , which deals with NATO security issues.
After Russia’s invasion and annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula in 2014, US defense officials were considering stationing American troops permanently in Eastern Europe, Townsend said. The idea, which came at a significant cost, was eventually submitted, but recent events could change that mindset, he said.
“We’re in a different time and era now,” Townsend said. “I think we need them there.”
While the Pentagon is unlikely to want to permanently build up US forces in Eastern Europe given its concerns about China, external pressure from allies and internal pressure from advocates who believe in a larger US military presence are making it increasingly difficult to withdraw them Europe is needed, said Rachel Rizzo, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
“The upside is that the eastern allies would be increasingly reassured,” Rizzo said. “The downside is that we could revert to a scenario where again there is just a huge number of US troops on the European continent. We’re not there yet, but it’s something to think about.”
Karoun Demirjian and Greg Jaffe contributed to this report.