The Russian noose tightens. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on Monday what he had been predicting for weeks, his Russian counterpart attacking eastern Ukraine by the throat. Vladimir Putin wants to reach the region closest to his border with almost all his men and artillery while declaring his victory. How does the Kremlin, after trying to attack the south and the north, Kyiv or even strategic cities like Mariupol, intend to conquer the Donbass? Can the Ukrainian army resist? Reply with General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN.
Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN?. – iPhone D Trinquand
What will the Battle for Donbass look like?
We’re entering a much more classic fight. The Russians announced three weeks ago that they would focus their efforts on the Donbass. In military terms, this means stopping the attacks that were taking place in Kyiv and in the north. Now the Donbass is about confronting the Ukrainian army, which has been preparing for this confrontation since 2014. To this end, the Russians will use artillery to smash the defenses of their Ukrainian enemies, but also cause breakthroughs to break them up. Eventually, Moscow’s forces will try to outflank Volodymyr Zelensky’s army by moving north-south in order to cut off its reinforcements coming from the west.
Why do we fear this fight so much?
Because all Russian funds are concentrated there. That means a lot of heavy artillery and therefore a lot of casualties. But this “Battle in Donbass” is also a final phase for the Russians. After this operation, either President Vladimir Putin declares victory or President Volodymyr Zelenskyy does so. But one of the two will emerge victorious.
Will this “Battle in Donbass” last several days, as Kyiv claims?
It can even take much longer. Everyone has in mind that Vladimir Putin wants victory before the symbolic date of May 9th [fête patriotique russe], in two and a half weeks. Will he make it then? I do not know. And is this May 9th date really real? I do not know it either.
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Can Ukraine militarily resist the fight in the East?
Ukraine has a real advantage because since 2014 it has been prepared, especially in this area. The Ukrainians have plans to fire, they are trained, they are protected by trenches or even concrete shelters. On the other hand, since the reinforcements come from the west, their lines of communication are quite long, so the opposite. The Russians, on the other hand, have shorter lines of communication as they got closer to their borders when they arrived in Donbass.
After this “Battle in Donbass” either President Vladimir Putin or President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares victory. »
Is this offensive different from the one in Kyiv? Why ?
Yes, very different. In Kyiv, the Russian government initially thought of quickly overthrowing the Ukrainian government and not using force. At that time, the Russian armed forces never managed to get within 20 km of the center of the capital. The city was therefore threatened but never directly attacked. There will be systematic shelling in Donbass. In addition, for several weeks now, Ukrainians have been asking civilians to leave the region because they too will be the target of these bombings.
Is the Russian army stuck in Mariupol?
It does not trample, only the stage of taking the last bastion of Mariupol, which is the Azovstal Steel Plant located at the port, is extremely difficult. There, too, the Ukrainian armed forces have been preparing for four weeks. In this bastion there would be six underground floors, which makes the confiscation so complicated for the Russians. In addition, there are very determined fighters in Mariupol. They know that by continuing the fight, they are preventing the Russian forces mobilized on the ground from moving elsewhere and thus into the Donbass. They also know that all eyes are on them. It is therefore important for the morale of the Ukrainian troops that they resist.
Can we say that Moscow has changed its military strategy since the beginning of the war?
Yes. The original strategy was to seize power without the use of force. Moscow failed. So, after four weeks, the Kremlin has taken another turn and it is now a matter of concentrating on the only axis that had made progress up to that point, namely the south-southeast axis. The idea is to achieve one victory and only one: the conquest of Donbass.
With the exception of Donbass, would Russia have abandoned the rest of Ukraine?
Yes. Russia has given up on the rest of Ukraine for now. She knows she can neither conquer nor occupy the rest of the country. Considering the difficulties on the territory and the Western mobilization, it seems to me that this is a rather badly started affair at this stage. But that doesn’t mean Moscow won’t try to get the rest of Ukraine later.