Published on: 04/20/2022 – 17:33
Faced with the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine launched on April 18, where deadly fighting has intensified in recent days, Ukrainian troops assembled on the spot intend to defend Donbass. Can they really hold their own against the Russian steamroller? decryption.
While the expected Russian offensive in Donbass began on Monday, April 18, Russia, which announced on March 25 that it will now focus its efforts on the east of the country since 2014, when its operations in the war zone became part of it, is intensifying controlled by pro-Russian separatists.
This new phase of the war has been announced, stresses General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN, guest of the France 24 debate the Russian army decided to concentrate on the Donbass, which is strategically understandable.”
However, the question arose as to whether the Russians would have the means to break through and bypass the Ukrainian defenses. “That is the basic question,” said the general.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is running out of time as he hopes for a major success in Ukraine ahead of May 9, the anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, and the traditional military parade held every year in Red Square to mark the occasion being held in Moscow.
Russian General Alexander Dvornikov, who was recently appointed head of all forces deployed in Ukraine, has only two and a half weeks left to complete his mission, that is, to achieve a victory before May 9, that is quite short . said General Dominique Trinquand.
Dubbed the “butcher of Syria” by US general and former CIA chief David Petraeus, Alexander Dvornikov is known for leading Russia’s heavy bombing strategy in Syria. His reputation as a soldier willing to do anything to achieve his goals has people in eastern Ukraine fearing the worst.
A Ukrainian army that has been prepared since 2014
A “quite short” time, while the Ukrainian army does not intend to unleash them in Donbass. “No matter how many Russian soldiers are brought here, we will fight,” said President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “We will defend ourselves.”
According to experts, Ukrainian soldiers have succeeded in thwarting the Kremlin’s plans in the east of the country.
Since 2014, the Ukrainian army, which knows this whole region inside out, has been preparing for this front, which explains why the Russians pushed east from Crimea, and not from Donbass, emphasizes the former head of the French Military mission at the UN.
If at the beginning of the invasion the Russian army advanced rather quickly and captured areas in southern Ukraine, on the other hand, in Donbass it took very little territory and could not even capture Marinka and Avdiivka, the satellite cities of Donetsk, which have been in Ukrainian hands since 2014 are,” recalls Gulliver Cragg, France 24 correspondent in Kyiv. “Russian forces have been shelling them very intensely, but they are unable to advance, which speaks volumes about the willingness of Ukrainians in the area to deal with the attacks. “
Dominique Trinquand explains that in this new phase of the war, the Russian soldiers will face Ukrainian positions that “have been extremely well prepared for eight years, i.e. counterattack against enemy positions”.
“The decentralization of the struggle is the key”
The general explains that two Russian maneuvers are currently underway to take the Donbass in a pincer movement in order to reduce the Donbass pocket. “One is to attack Ukraine’s defenses head-on from east to west on three axes. If any of these axes allow a breakthrough, the Russians will send reserves and reinforcements there,” he said. “The second is to encircle the Ukrainian forces and cut them off from the reinforcements arriving from the west. This is the maneuver that starts from Izium in the east and descends south to enclose the beautiful flower of the Ukrainian army, which has been around since 2014 is there and has very well prepared positions and a lot of armament.”
The front is on April 19, 2022. © France 24
But the Ukrainians did not remain spectators in the face of these maneuvers. “In the last few days, the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack in the Kharkiv region, cutting off the rear of the Russian columns advancing on the Donbass,” General Dominique Trinquand continues. “It is the preferred strategy of the Ukrainians, which is to cut off the Russian forces from their logistics. These, once they lose fuel or ammo, stay where they are and cannot go any further.
According to him, “the decentralization of the struggle is the key for the Ukrainians”, whose army has shown a certain adaptability and pragmatism on the battlefield. “Being able to decide and execute your fight once you’re in an area and know what impact you want to make when the Russian army is extremely centralized and rolling out its resources like a steamroller.”
Finally, to be able to defend the Donbass, Western military aid could partially offset the struggle. We must remember that aid to Ukraine dates back to 2014, be it in the form of training or equipment. And if the Ukrainian army is very brave, it must be recognized today, also because it has been trained and equipped, the general concludes. “Arms shipments have continued to pour into the country since the beginning of the Russian invasion, but we must not forget all the other support like intelligence and satellite imagery from the West, which are at least as important as the weapons and have allowed the Ukrainians to score.”