The sea is not the center of the war in Ukraine, the war wedges itself on the fords of the rivers, on the broken bridges, it consists of distant and pounding artillery, which almost reminds us of the First World War, but spiced with drones and Applications that turn mobile phones into shooting centers. However, the Black Sea should have been a sector where, on paper, the Russians had overwhelming superiority in terms of shipping and maneuvering capacity. However, this superiority never showed itself, on the contrary: the fleet received a number of heavy blows. Most serious and unexpected was the sinking of the 9,300 ton cruiser Moskva. But that was only the most striking episode. First destroyed was the Saratov transport ship, old but essential for transporting troops and materiel. And two more ships of the same type were damaged. After that, several “Raptor” patrol boats, much smaller but modern units, were pulverized by Bayraktar drones. Almost all in the clashes for control of the small but strategic Snake Island. And again yesterday the Kremlin fleet made a pawn near the island, which is essential for controlling the waters off Odessa. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry confirmed news reported by the media a few hours earlier that the Navy had sunk the Spasatel Vasily Bekh, a tugboat belonging to the Russian fleet that was transporting ammunition to the island currently occupied by the Russians. The ship was rumored to have carried Tor anti-aircraft missile systems essential to the outpost’s defenses.
This is not irreparable damage to the Russian forces, but undoubtedly further evidence of how much Western systems such as Harpoon missiles (supplied by Denmark) can change the balance on the battlefield. In the naval sphere, for example, Russia was forced to resort to submarines to keep its surface units as far away from Ukrainian shores as possible.
Ashore, where the initiative has been in the hands of Moscow for days, the situation is undoubtedly more complicated. Even if the technique of “coventrizing” Ukrainian cities with artillery shelling makes the Russians advance very slowly. Basically, the clash is now a conflict of friction, in which even the Ukrainians are reporting very high casualties. “Every day up to a thousand Ukrainian soldiers are killed or wounded in Donbass,” said Davyd Arakhamia, a Ukrainian politician and member of the team that tried to negotiate with Russia in the early days of the war. He also said that Ukraine has mobilized a million people and has the capacity to recruit another two million, but that the conflict is consuming a huge supply of arms and ammunition, which are being demanded from Western partners at a rapid pace. The situation is not much different on the Russian side, where very outdated materials are now being sent online, with the emphasis being on quantity. Sniper weapons are now reserved for a few aimed shots to prevent the influx of western weaponry to the front lines. Or with punches that are suitable for a high propaganda effect. Yesterday the Kremlin announced that the Air Force had destroyed the headquarters of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion. The operation, said Defense Ministry spokesman Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, was carried out using “high-precision missiles” in the Pesochin region of the Kharkiv region.
But the reports of Western intelligence, beginning with the British, underscore the fatigue and understaffing of Moscow’s agencies. The clash around Severodonetsk yesterday caused the Ukrainians to almost completely abandon the city, news (hardly verifiable) has arrived that Ukrainian soldiers have also surrendered to the Azot plant. An undoubted success for the Russians, but above all moral. Now I’m standing in front of the Donets, which is not so easy to cross at all, and the stockpiles of weapons are reinforcing the hitherto inferior Ukrainian artillery. According to US Chief of Staff Mark Milley, the Ukrainians were basically being sent pieces for the equivalent of 12 artillery battalions. Anti-tank systems sent would be almost 97,000 (enough to destroy all tanks on the planet). The problem remains that the weapons need to be moved, managed, maintained. And now the Ukrainians have to send their not always perfectly trained staff online. Both contenders are short of breath, but a political window is missing.