The early days of free agency were, as usual, a seller’s market as players landed the most lucrative deals. The pendulum has swung the other way since the first wave passed. It’s now a buyer’s market. Almost all of the consensus best players available when free agency started were signed.
The NFL’s annual owners’ meeting, held March 26-29 in Phoenix, usually spells the end of free agency for all practical purposes. The teams will focus most of their attention on the upcoming NFL Draft, which will take place April 27-29 after the close of the meeting.
Here are 10 contract-related thoughts and observations regarding the free hand and the early part of the offseason.
1. Philadelphia Freedom
The Eagles entered Super Bowl LVII with a deep and talented roster whose strength lay on offense and defense. As expected, several starters, particularly on defence, have left free reign. The biggest blow was the loss of defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. He was expected to price himself out of Philadelphia after having a career-high 11 sacks in 2022, which was fourth in the NFL among centerbacks. He went to the 49ers, who defeated the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, on a four-year, $80 million contract with a $40 million guarantee.
The Eagles lost starting linebackers TJ Edwards and Kyzir White. Edwards signed a three-year, $19.5 million deal with the Bears that includes $12.025 million in guarantees. White was given a two-year, $10 million contract (worth up to $11 million with incentives) by the Cardinals.
Both starting fuses went off as well. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson reportedly overplayed his hand by turning down a multi-year deal from the Eagles early in free agency. After the Eagles took a different direction with the money, he accepted a one-year, $8 million contract from the Lions. Marcus Epps signed a two-year, $12 million deal with the Raiders that includes $10.34 million in guarantees.
On the offensive side of the ball, the losses aren’t nearly as great. Running back Miles Sanders took a four-year, $25.64 million contract from the Panthers. Offensive guard Isaac Seumalo has reportedly signed a three-year, $24 million deal with the Steelers.
The Eagles were able to hold together one of the best cornerback duos in the league. James Bradberry returns on a three-year, $38 million deal with $20 million fully guaranteed. Darius Slay went off the chopping block to a three-year, $42 million deal with a $24.5 million full guarantee.
Seasoned veterans Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham are returning to the defensive line with one-year contracts worth $10 million and $6 million, respectively, and center Jason Kelce, 35, has decided to defer his retirement for at least a year. He will earn $14.5 million in 2023.
There is some continuity in the rushing attack as running back Boston Scott comes back on a one-year, $2 million contract. Raashad Penny is an inexpensive addition to the backfield with benefits provided he stays healthy. He signed a one-year, $1.35 million contract with $750,000 in incentives.
The NFC East has not had a repeat champion since 2004. Whether the Eagles can end the streak remains to be seen.
2. Trading frenzy
It was an active trading market with several notable players. Acquisition costs were generally modest.
The blockbuster trade was the Panthers moving up to first pick overall in the 2023 draft by picking Bears wide receiver DJ Moore, ninth overall pick of 2023, a second-round pick of 2023 (61st overall), a pick for the first round of 2024 and a sent 2025 second round pick. Moore signed a three-year contract extension averaging $20.628 million per year. Last March, the Bears got a primary threat for quarterback Justin Fields, who is under contract for $52.265 million through the 2025 season.
The Dolphins have arguably the best cornerback tandem in the NFL after acquiring Jalen Ramsey to pair him with Xavien Howard. Miami gave up a third-round pick from 2023 and tight end Hunter Long.
The Raiders traded Darren Waller to the Giants for a third-round player in 2023, despite a $51 million three-year renewal just before the start of the 2022 regular season, making him the league’s highest-paid tight end at $17 millions per year. The Giants have Waller at $51.475 million for the next four years. Waller’s last two seasons have been derailed by knee and hamstring injuries. When healthy, Waller is one of the top five tight ends in the game.
The Cowboys made two moves. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who is the last year of his $9.98 million contract, was tapped by the Colts to a 2023 fifth-round pick. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who didn’t want to go through the rebuild with the Texans, was won to a 2023 fifth-round pick and a 2024 sixth-round pick. He had $35 million left on his contract, including a fully guaranteed $18 million base salary for 2023. The Texans converted $6 million of the $35 million pre-trade into a signing bonus, leaving the Cowboys for the responsible for the remaining $29 million.
One team’s junk is another team’s treasure with tight end Jonnu Smith. He’s been a major disappointment since signing a four-year, $50 million deal that included a narrow final record of $31.25 million fully guaranteed with the Patriots in 2021 on free agency. The Patriots received just one seventh-round pick in 2023. Smith revised his deal in the process. He was expected to make $23 million over the next two years, with $6.25 million fully guaranteed. It’s now a two-year, $15 million deal with an $8.5 million full warranty.
The Texans received offensive line help by receiving offensive guard Shaq Mason and a 2023 seventh-round pick from the Buccaneers for a 2023 sixth-round pick. Mason is expected to earn $8.5 million in 2023, the final year of his contract.
The biggest trade in veteran players is likely to come, presumably ahead of the 2023 draft. The Packers are expected to trade quarterback Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. The parties are at a standoff over trade compensation for the 39-year-old, four-time NFL MVP.
Five-time All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is on the trading block. The Cardinals’ new general manager Monti Ossenfort may need to adjust his asking price for Hopkins, who was rumored to be at least a second-round pick, after the Cooks’ trade. He may also have to eat some of the $34.365 million Hopkins is projected to make over the next two years ($19.45 million in 2023 and $14.915 million in 2024), as the Texans are doing with Cooks have done.
3. It pays to be in the trenches
The Offensive Tackle and Offensive Guard markets have been reset with contract renewals. Laremy Tunsil became the NFL’s first offensive lineman at a salary of $20 million per year in 2020 with a three-year extension, averaging $22 million per year. Tunsil just received another three-year extension, making him the first $25 million-per-year offensive lineman. He signed a three-year, $75 million extension with $60 million in guarantees, of which $50 million was fully guaranteed at signing.
Chris Lindstrom is the first offensive guard to sign for more than $20 million a year. He received a five-year, $102.5 million extension from the Falcons, averaging $20.5 million per year. Lindstrom has set new offensive protection benchmarks for warranties with $62,702 total warranties and $48,202 full warranties at signing.
The Chiefs surprisingly added offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor to the $20 million-per offensive lineman club, which now has six members, instead of re-signing left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who died in 2022 under a $16.662 million franchise tag played dollars. Taylor, who will make the transition from right tackle to left tackle, signed a four-year, $80 million deal with $60 million in guarantees, with $40 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Speaking of Brown, he joined the Bengals on a four-year, $64.092 million contract. His $31.1 million signing bonus is the largest ever for an offensive lineman. The Broncos signed right tackle Mike McGlinchey to a five-year, $87.5 million deal with $52.5 million in guarantees ($35 million fully guaranteed at signing).
4. Rework of rams
A 5-12 record during an injury-plagued 2022 season was a reality check for the Super Bowl LVI champion Rams. Depth was sacrificed with a top-heavy roster.
In a foreshadowing of things to come, the Rams announced a mutual farewell to linebacker Bobby Wagner, who was the Associated Press second-team All-Pro in 2022, in late February after just one season in Los Angeles. Five million salary caps were picked up with Wagner’s departure. Wagner earned $10.5 million for his short stint with the Rams.
As mentioned above, Ramsey was dealt to the Dolphins. The Rams created $5.6 million in cap space with the trade. Ramsey’s dead money, a salary cap for a player no longer on a team’s roster, is $19.6 million.
Edge rusher Leonard Floyd was released in another cost-cutting move. He had two years left for $31.5 million on a four-year, $64 million deal signed in 2021. Three million in cap place was won while the Rams were left with $19 million in dead money.
The Rams would like to step away from wide receiver Allen Robinson after a disappointing debut season in Los Angeles. Robinson signed a three-year, $46.5 million deal (worth up to $48 million through incentives) last March with a $30.75 million full guarantee. Permission was granted to his agent to seek a bargain.
5. An inside job
Central defenders got big paydays. Four players surpassed the $15 million mark per year. It wasn’t long before the Commanders locked up franchise player Daron Payne. He signed a four-year, $90 million deal to become the league’s second-highest earner. Payne’s deal has $60.02 million in guarantees, with $46.01 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Hargrave was given a four-year, $80 million deal with $40 million fully guaranteed by the 49ers despite being 30 years old. Dre’Mont Jones signed a three-year, $51 million contract with the Seahawks that includes $30 million in guarantees. Zach Allen was paid $15.25 million a year by the Broncos to make up for Jones’ loss. He signed a three-year, $45.75 million contract with a $32.5 million full guarantee.
6. Soft wide receiver market
Teams exercised fiscal restraint with a weak free-agent wide-receiver class. There were no surprise deals like Christian Kirk’s four-year, $72 million contract (worth up to $84 million through incentives) with $37 million in guarantees from the Jaguars last year, which easily beat all reasonable projections has. No one is keen on the three-year, $46.5 million contract (worth up to $48 million through incentives) with $30.75 million that Robinson signed last year after an underperforming 2021 season from the Rams in free agency received, came close.
Top deals totaled $11 million a year, which the Patriots’ Nelson Agholor received as free agency in 2021. Allen Lazard was signed by Jets to a four-year, $44 million deal with a $23 million full guarantee. The Jets signed Corey Davis to a three-year, $37.5 million contract, averaging $12.5 million per year with $27 million fully guaranteed, in 2021 as free agency. New York also added former Chiefs speedster Mecole Hardman to a reported one-year deal worth up to $6.5 million, then sent 2021 second-rounder Elijah Moore and a 2023 third-round pick to the Browns for a 2023 second-rounder .
Jakobi Meyers joined the Raiders on a three-year, $33 million deal. There are $21 million in total guarantees and $16 million was fully guaranteed at signing. JuJu Smith-Schuster finally landed a long-term contract for his third straight year on the open market. He signed a three-year, $25.5 million contract (worth up to $33 million through incentives) with the Patriots with a $16 million full guarantee.
7. Hawks’ spending spree
The Falcons entered free agency and were well positioned to make a move in the weakest division of 2022. The entire NFC South was under .500 last season. With Tom Brady retiring after three seasons with the Buccaneers, the NFC South is at stake.
Atlanta held the NFL’s second-highest salary cap spot at nearly $70 million as the start of league year 2023 neared. The focus was on defense in the free hand. Most notably, Jessie Bates has signed a four-year, $64.02 million deal with $36 million fully guaranteed. The deal makes Bates the fourth highest-paid safety in the NFL at $16.005 million a year.
New defense coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s ties to the Saints have come in handy. Defensive tackle David Onyemata and linebacker Kaden Elliss followed Nielsen from New Orleans to Atlanta. Onyemata signed a three-year, $35 million deal with a $24.5 million full guarantee. Elliss, who can also rush the passer, was given a three-year, $21.5 million deal with a $10.16 million full guarantee.
Offensively, right tackle Kaleb McGary was retained after declining a $13.202 million fifth-year option for 2023. He returns on a three-year, $34.5 million deal with $15 million fully guaranteed. Lindstrom has reset the offensive guard market with his monster expansion.
Quarterback Taylor Heinicke signed a two-year, $14 million deal (with a maximum value of $20 million through incentives). He could push 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder for the starting job.
Smith, who was acquired by the Patriots, is reunited with Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, who was his offensive coordinator and previously tight ends coach (2017 and 2018) during his last two seasons with the Titans (2019 and 2020). Wide receiver Mack Hollins was a value signing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract after catching 57 passes for 690 yards with four touchdowns for the Raiders last season, all career highs.
8. Recurrent ailments
Free agency hasn’t exactly been kind to running backs in recent years. James Conner and Leonard Fournette established the second tier of $7 million a year running back salaries in the open market last year with the Cardinals and Buccaneers, respectively. Sanders failed to reach that mark despite career highs of 1,269 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, which were fifth and eighth in the NFL, respectively, in 2022.
He signed a four-year, $25.64 million contract with the Panthers, averaging $6.35 million a year with $13 million fully guaranteed. The next best offer belongs to David Montgomery. He went to the Lions for $18 million over three years. There are $11 million in guarantees, with $8.75 million fully guaranteed at signing.
9. Tight End Timing
Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz are victims of bad timing. The franchise tag turned out to be their enemy. Both may have topped the $12.5 million-a-year deals Hunter Henry and Smith received from the Patriots in free agency in 2021 if they were on the open market last year, rather than under $10,931- Playing million dollar franchise tags. They had career years in 2021. Gesicki caught 73 passes for 780 receiving yards. Schultz had 78 catches, 808 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
There wasn’t a strong tight end draft class last year. The first tight end to be drafted was the Cardinals’ Trey McBride late in the second round with the 55th overall.
The Dolphins and Gesicki have reportedly never really entered into contract talks. Schultz and the Cowboys never came close to reaching an agreement. Frustrated by the slow pace of negotiations, Schultz canceled the last part of the organized team activities last June. In my opinion, Dallas’ best offer before the July 15 franchise player deadline was five years averaging $11.75 million per year with a team-friendly structure. Negotiations never resumed before the free hand began on March 15.
Gesicki didn’t sit well with new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s offense last season because blocking isn’t his forte. The 2022 season was Gesicki’s worst since his rookie year in 2018. He had 32 catches, 362 yards and five touchdowns. His playing time increased from 71.73% in 2021 to 45.17% last season.
Schultz didn’t get close to his 2021 production because he was slowed by a PCL issue in his right knee that kept him out of two games. A lack of chemistry with backup quarterback Cooper Rush while Dak Prescott missed five games with a broken right thumb also contributed. Still, he had 57 receptions, 577 yards and five touchdowns. Schultz was instrumental in the Cowboys’ playoff win over the Buccaneers with seven catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns.
The fact that the 2023 tight-end draft class was considered extremely strong did not help Gesicki and Schultz. Several tight ends are expected to be taken off the board before McBride was drafted last year.
Gesicki and Schutlz made “Prove-it” deals. The Patriots signed Gesicki to a one-year, $4.5 million deal worth up to $9 million through inducements. Schultz was given a one-year, $6.25 contract by the Texans with an additional $3 million in incentives.
10. Build a bridge
Teams didn’t hesitate to invest in potential bridge quarterbacks. The commanders declared that fifth-rounder Sam Howell would start the offseason as their No. 1 quarterback of 2022. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Jacoby Brissett, who has signed a one-year, $8 million deal (worth up to $10 million through incentives), beat Howell. Heinicke joined the Falcons. There is no established starting quarterback in Atlanta, as Ridder started in the last four games last season.
Andy Dalton has signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Panthers. Incentives make the deal worth up to $17 million. Dalton could start the season as Carolina’s starting quarterback if the quarterback tied with the first overall pick isn’t immediately thrown into the fire. Baker Mayfield, the first overall pick in 2018, signed a one-year, $4 million deal worth up to $8.5 million with incentives, with Kyle Trask from the second round of 2021 for the first quarterback job of the Buccaneers to compete. Trask has thrown nine passes in his two-year NFL career.