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The inflation story took a turn for the better on Thursday as the government reported that the CPI fell 0.1% from the previous month. Federal Reserve policymakers will downplay the importance of the report and reiterate their commitment to continue fighting volatile prices. But privately they must be enthusiastic.
Consider the situation from the Fed’s perspective. Less than two months ago, Chairman Jerome Powell set out his framework for thinking about inflation in a speech to the Brookings Institution. Today, most of his hopes and dreams are already being realized. Supply chains are recovering and core goods prices are cooling, while forward-looking indicators of market rents suggest that accommodation inflation will also soon fall.(1) Perhaps most importantly, central bankers have received encouraging evidence for core services without accommodation – the most important wage-driven component of the CPI, which Powell feared would be the hardest to tame.
In fact, after deducting rent and owners’ corresponding rent, prices for core services have increased at an annualized rate of just 2.6% over the last three months. When Powell delivered his Brookings speech, three-month annualized inflation in this category was 7.1%. Now it has essentially returned to pre-pandemic averages.
Even ahead of Thursday’s report, there were mounting signs that inflationary pressures in core non-housing services were easing. A Jan. 6 report by the Institute for Supply Management showed that prices paid by service providers fell for a second month. Meanwhile, growth in average hourly wages — which Powell has identified as the key potential price driver in the services sector — has moderated significantly. While wage growth is above pre-pandemic norms in both the goods and services sectors, the latter has experienced a sharp downturn.(2)
Of course, Powell and his colleagues will continue to argue that inflation remains “too high,” but that’s something of a rhetoric. As traders sense lower inflation and the end of rate hikes, markets will continue to rise, causing bond yields and borrowing costs to fall, which the Fed believes could revive inflation. In a technical but misleading sense, it is true that the Fed is still missing its 2% inflation target. With the latest report, the annual change in the headline consumer price index is 6.5%. That puts the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal spending deflator, at around 4.7%, according to Bloomberg Economics calculations – well above the 2% target. The Fed is likely to hike rates another 50 basis points to ensure it does its job.
But in practical terms, the central bank is not really off target and a policy shift is underway towards the end of the year. Year-to-year changes in CPI are highly subject to base effects, which means they say as much about where prices were in December 2021 as they did in December 2022. Prices aren’t rising much right now. Based on the core CPI data for the last three months, the annualized inflation rate is only 3.1%. Taking headline inflation into account, prices have risen by just 1.8%.
The report clearly has some blemishes – that the CPI for accommodation has still not really cooled despite the leading indicators – but there is no question that the overall inflation picture looks rosy. Not only that, it’s the third report in as many months to support that conclusion, meaning it’s likely no coincidence. Bond markets took note, with the yield on the two-year Treasury note falling six basis points to 4.16%, heading for its lowest close since October 5th. The S&P 500 Index was understandably slightly lower, as lower inflation does not rule out a recession and a concomitant fall in earnings. Higher interest rates take time to sink in, and often with harsh and unintended consequences.
Another rise in prices is certainly possible, like the one seen in the late 1970s, after Fed Chairman Arthur Burns famously thought he had defeated inflation in 1976. We cannot rule out that major structural issues are at play here, calling for a protracted war on inflation. But using Powell’s own criteria, there can be little doubt that this particular fight is almost over — no matter what the Fed Chair and his colleagues ultimately say publicly.
More from the Bloomberg Opinion:
• A soft landing doesn’t mean the economy is safe: Allison Schrager
• Is inflation in sight of 2%? Watch what you wish for: John Authers
• Who’s afraid of the big disruption in bad interest rates?: Daniel Moss
(1) Accommodation inflation enters the CPI with a known lag compared to market prices, but alternative data from providers such as Zillow suggests that accommodation inflation should ease soon.
(2) Last week’s Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report showed that average hourly wages at private service firms are up 4.1% on an annual basis, based on data for the past three months. The pre-pandemic average was around 3.4%. Certainly, data has been volatile and occasionally misleading lately. Prior to the latest revisions, the same data series appeared to be accelerating in November. A more definitive judgment on the status of wage pressures will come from the more reliable BLS Employment Costs Index, which is released quarterly and will next be updated on Jan. 31, the day before the Fed’s next interest rate decision.
This column does not necessarily represent the opinion of the editors or of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Jonathan Levin has worked as a Bloomberg journalist in Latin America and the US, covering finance, markets and M&A. Most recently, he was the company’s Miami office manager. He is a CFA charterholder.
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