Fighters passing undisturbed in the desert. Jihadists are crossing the Balkans knocking on the doors of Europe and new leaders in the galaxy of terror. While the war in Ukraine has drawn resources and attention, there are other hot fronts to keep an eye on. The alarm came from a United Nations dossier. Many have focused on al Qaeda’s new leadership given to Saif Al Adel, but the document says much more, particularly the threats that continue to surround Europe and Italy. Threats intertwined with the migratory routes penetrating our country, just remember that attempts to reach Italy have never stopped. And indeed, Lampedusa is once again on the brink. Yesterday the island’s hotspot had over 2,100 migrants. An emergency that Europe is still unwilling to deal with and one that remains worrying given UN surveys.
The organization founded by Osama bin Laden and the remnants of Isis continue to operate in Libya and pose a threat to the security of the southern front. The dossier states that al Qaeda is mainly active in the south. In particular, it brings fighters from Niger to Libya across the porous African borders. It is unclear if these fighters are destined for other war scenarios in the Sahel, but movement north cannot be ruled out. The risk is that lone agents or microcells of terrorists will attack the Mediterranean coasts and especially the hubs from which boats loaded with migrants leave for Italy. A path that has already shaped our country in the past.
La Base’s strategy is the same as that tried in other failed states like Yemen: favoring marriages with local tribes in order to maintain social legitimacy and control over the territory. This allows her to control valuable avenues such as the arms, drug and most importantly human trafficking. Even the Islamic State is no different. Though weakened by American raids, the group is still active in the southern sectors. Like al Qaeda, ISIS is proving resilient and able to exploit Libya’s fragility, exploit ties to local communities and fuel the illicit trade by recruiting new fighters.
Even the structure has changed. The new leader, Abdulsalam Darkullah, has created small terrorist cells of 30-40 people, also made up of foreign fighters, mostly from Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan. Further west, proselytism at the gates of Spain is also a concern. Several member states have reported to the UN that the risk of foreign fighters reinventing themselves as recruiters to create autonomous cells capable of operating in Europe is still high.
Many of them are familiar with radicalization processes and have direct contacts with the central commands of the organizations. In October, Spanish police dismantled one of these cells in the Melilla enclave. 13 people ended up handcuffed between Melilla, Granada and Morocco for indoctrinating about fifty children. At the heart of the cell are an imam from Melilla and two former IS fighters who fought in Mali.
Also of concern is the route that runs along the Balkans. Alarm bells continue to ring here, as a double arrest last August showed. Spanish forces arrested two Al Qaeda operatives between Austria and Spain. The two joined the organization in 2014 during a fight in Syria. The investigation revealed that the terrorists had managed to cross Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and finally Austria undisturbed.
Perhaps even more troubling, the couple arrived in Europe thanks to a network of Serbian traffickers who were able to provide passports to access the Schengen area. The Balkan route therefore remains one of the sensitive points where action needs to be taken, notably by expanding biometric control systems to track potential terrorists.
On the propaganda front, the latest alarm bell has been ringing. If that of Isis is in retreat, this is not the case for Al Qaeda, which is trying to “break through” among young Europeans with a new magazine, “Mujahideen in the West”, in order to create new lone fighters autonomously attack Europe.