Are the Blues and Timo Meier a trade match? Breakdown of Franchise Fit, Asset Costs and More

Something Blues general manager Doug Armstrong said after captain Ryan O’Reilly’s recent move to Toronto caught the attention of many in St. Louis.

Now it has caught the attention of those interested in Timo Meier’s situation in San Jose.

When asked what the Blues might do with all the draft capital they’ve acquired, Armstrong stated, “We need to get rid of players aged 25, 26[years old]and under who have term contracts so they can grow with us.” this next core of players that we have.

There are plenty of players in the NHL who fit that description, but the name that immediately catches the eye is Meier. The 26-year-old forward doesn’t have that tenure now, but he will be a restricted free agent this summer and could be signed for a tenure teams like the Blues want.

On Tuesday, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun confirmed the Blues have been in touch with San Jose regarding Meier, whose availability is also being monitored by some other clubs.

The trade match could make a lot of sense for Armstrong and the Blues following the departures of O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko. The 6-foot-1, 220-pound winger, while very expensive, checks many boxes for the type of player Armstrong hopes to add to a young core with Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou.

Let’s dive deep into fit. Here are all the big questions surrounding Meier landing in St. Louis.

How is Timo Meier’s situation in San Jose?

Masisak: Meier was the ninth pick in a loaded 2015 NHL draft and looked something of a star after scoring 30 goals and 66 points in his second full season at age 22. There has been a frustrating two-year slump, but Meier has established himself as one of the league’s top power forwards over the past two seasons.

He set career highs with 35 goals and 76 points in 2021-22, and he’s followed that up with an even better season. He has 31 goals and 52 points in 57 games (that’s a 44-goal-in-82-game pace) and has been a consistently dominant offensive force despite drawing a lot of attention with a top-heavy squad.

However, Meier and the Sharks are at a crossroads. He is a pending restricted free agent playing the final year of a four-year, $24 million contract. While his cap hit is a team-friendly $6 million, Meier’s actual salary this year is $10 million. That means the Sharks, or any team that takes him on, must either work out a new contract or make him a $10 million qualifying offer for next season to keep him from becoming a full free agent this summer.

Aside from the potential for a $10 million cap hit in 2023-24 for a Sharks club grappling with many other cap-related headaches, this is the fourth straight season that the San Jose will miss the playoffs, a franchise record for futility. And first-year general manager Mike Grier seems more committed to a patient rebuilding approach than his predecessors.

So when can the Sharks be a contender again? And does that suit Meier, who will be 27 in October? San Jose does not have to act on Meier by the March 3 deadline. The Sharks could wait until the summer, before the 2023 NHL draft, or even the following trade deadline. But all signs point to Meier ending this season with a new club, provided Grier finds a trade package he’s comfortable with.

What other teams are interested?

Masisak: A few teams that made sense as Meier-Freier have already swung a big deal. The Islanders added Bo Horvat, while the Rangers and Maple Leafs snapped the Blues’ two biggest trading assets.

The two clubs with the strongest and most enduring association with Meier are the Devils and Hurricanes. They are battling for top spot in the Metropolitan Division and both have the assets and financial flexibility to make a tempting offer. The Devils, in particular, have the largest collection of young assets of any league contender, though LeBrun has reported that New Jersey would like to extend Meier’s contract to complete the deal.

There have been reports to suggest the Golden Knights could also be interested as Mark Stone’s contract can go on long-term injured reserve and open up the space. But it’s also pretty hard to imagine the Sharks agreeing to Meier potentially spending the next eight-plus seasons playing for their biggest rival unless the Golden Knights have an offer that’s just too good to pass it on.

Does Meier make sense for St. Louis?

Rutherford: In 2015, I heard that St. Louis and San Jose put together a trade that the Sharks eventually pulled out of. From what I understand the deal, the Sharks sent blues Tomas Hertl and the 2015 draft pick, Draft 9, and returning from the Blues were TJ Oshie and Kevin Shattenkirk.

The reason I’m bringing this up now: San Jose ended up using that election to take Meier. There’s no guarantee the Blues would have snapped him up — Mikko Rantanen went to Colorado at No. 10, among others, and Mathew Barzal to the Islanders at No. 16 — but there was a chance Meier was drafted by the Blues.

Eight years later, he makes a lot of sense. As mentioned, Armstrong is looking to complement his new core and Meier, who turns 27 in October, fits into the upper end of his ideal age range. And after the departures of Tarasenko and O’Reilly, the Blues need to replenish their offense. Meier, a three-time 30-goal scorer, is a proven asset in that regard. Also, he brings some physicality which the club are likely to lose if/when Ivan Barbashev is traded. Meier leads the Sharks with 112 goals this season, or 5.9 per game.

If the Blues brought in Meier, who can play left or right wing, their top six could look something like this:

What does San Jose want?

Masisak: There are two obvious starting points here: The Blues suddenly have three first-round picks in the 2023 NHL draft. They also have two intriguing forwards who were picked in the first round of the last two drafts: Zachary Bolduc and Jimmy Snuggerud.

I think this is pretty easy on a macro level. LeBrun has reported that the Sharks want three plays for Meier, two of which are believed to be a top prospect and a first-round pick. A team or GM might rate these five assets in a different order than the others. I think the sharks would appreciate them like this:

This isn’t a slight insult to Bolduc, but rather a nod to the Sharks’ timeline. Bolduc is two years closer to free agency than the 2023 picks.

Obviously, the Blues would like to trade for Meier and keep their own pick, considering that by today’s end of the season it would be either first, second, ninth, tenth or eleventh in a strong draft class. Conversely, this choice is something teams like the Devils, Hurricanes, and Golden Knights don’t have to offer.

It seems obvious that the choice would need some level of protection: top-2 at least. The interesting part of the negotiation would be…can the Sharks get it with only top 2 protection? Would the blues want it protected in the top 9 or the top 10? Then, if one of the other firsts is involved, do the sharks get the higher or lower of the two? It doesn’t matter, but if one of those teams is eliminated early and the other wins the Stanley Cup, it could be an eight or nine place difference.

What would St. Louis be willing to give up?

Rutherford: What Corey wrote in particular makes sense from a shark perspective. If they move Meier, it’ll be a first-round pick, a top prospect, and maybe more.

What I’m wondering is, instead of including Snuggerud or Bolduc in the deal, the Blues are offering two of their first-round picks and a lower prospect. According to The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler, they have the No. 19 candidate pool and these two forwards, Snuggerud and Bolduc, are Nos. 1 and 2 on Wheeler’s list.

Armstrong could soon have a fourth-round first-rounder for 2023 if teams meet his asking price for Barbashev. If he could get away with Meier, keep Snuggerud and Bolduc, and somehow still have two first rounds left in the draft, that would be a stroke of genius. But I suspect Grier wants one of those prospects, and probably Snuggerud. If this is a deal-breaker for the Sharks, things could get tough for Armstrong.

As Corey wrote, the Blues could also offer something other chasers can’t, with a potentially high first-round pick of their own. But yes, there would have to be protection for this pick should the Blues get into the Connor Bedard sweepstakes.

In a perfect world, from the Blues’ perspective, they would want to get away with trading San Jose with two of their first-round picks and only their own unless it’s in the top five or something.

Does a deal make sense?

Rutherford: The area I haven’t gotten into yet, namely the giant elephant in the room, is Meier’s next assignment. According to CapFriendly, the Blues have approximately $12.7 million in projected salary cap space for 2023-24, and that’s with just 14 players under contract.

Athletic’s player card for Meier lists him as having a market value of $10.4 million. But even if you can get him for less, he’ll be a $9 or $10 million a year player on a long-term contract. The Blues can’t afford that unless they pull out some money, and who will that be? There is speculation Armstrong is buying a defender, but even if he were able to move Colton Parayko and his $6.5 million cap hit, that still might not be enough for Meier. And who then replaces Parayko?

While Meier makes sense for the Blues, there will be a big offer to the Sharks and a lot of hat gymnastics.

Masisak: If the Sharks can get either the first of the Blues, even with top 10 protection, or Snuggerud as the first piece, then either the Rangers’ choice, or Leafs, or Bolduc as the second piece, then this is a package that stacks well with almost everything that New Jersey or Carolina has to offer. And it might even trump them.

If San Jose ended up with two of the Rangers picks, the Leafs pick and Bolduc, it would be a solid deal, but the third pick would be a bit more important and might not match potential offers from other clubs.

If the Blues’ best offer for Meier includes just one of the Rangers’ picks, the Leafs’ pick and Bolduc’s pick, and a few other things, then Grier will either trade him somewhere else…or he’ll have to resell his fan base, as that was the best offer available.

(Photo by Timo Meier and Colton Parayko: Jeff Curry / USA Today)