Experts agree that Russia will launch a major offensive in Ukraine in the new year. Germany expects this in April.
An internal document purports to show that the German government in Berlin has clear ideas about how Russia will proceed in Ukraine in the new year. The German Ministry of Defense is expected to launch a major offensive in Ukraine in April 2023. So writes the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung”, citing an internal analysis by the ministry’s “Development and Strategy” department.
Other officials are also convinced that Russia will launch a major offensive in 2023. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expects a full-scale attack as early as January or February.
Deployment in Belarus as a diversionary maneuver
According to the US study institute for the study of war (ISW) in Belarus, Russia continues to create the conditions for a possible attack on northern Ukraine. The Ukrainian military also announced on Saturday that Russia had transferred battalions there. Although ISW experts believed that such an attack was still unlikely, it was possible. And the danger must be taken seriously. The creation of a field hospital was seen as an indication that Russia could attack from there.
However, the US institute considers it possible that sending Russian troops to Belarus is a diversionary ploy. A sabotage attack is also possible to distract the Ukrainian armed forces from defending Donbass. Russia could then use the potentially reduced attention of Ukrainian troops for an offensive in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine or elsewhere, he said.
Ukraine is optimistic
The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, also said on Friday that Russia’s activities in Belarus could be an element of the disinformation campaign.
Ukraine is able to protect its northern border. Even in the currently hotly contested city of Bakhmut in Donbass, the Ukrainian military has the capability to contain far greater numbers of Russian attackers, he said.
Navigation account 20 minutes 24.12.2022, 20:56| Act: 12/24/2022, 8:56 pm