L’European Union decided to do so after the Russian invasion of Ukraine Reduce energy dependency from Moscow. Most Member States import significant amounts of natural gas and petroleum from the Russian Federation and began to look for viable alternatives. Below is theAzerbaijana small Caucasian nation that is already part of theThe Soviet Unionwhich built its fortune by exploiting the oil and gas fields discovered nearby Caspian Sea and exporting these natural resources overseas. Elin SuleymanovAzerbaijani Ambassador to the UK, made it clear that neither his country’s gas production nor the existing infrastructure can replace more than one small fraction of Russian gas exports to Europe, which amounted to about 160 billion cubic meters in 2020. The infrastructure it refers to is the Transadriatic Pipeline (Tap), which became operational at the end of 2020 and brings the gas reserves of the Shah Deniz field to Italy: it has a capacity of ten billion cubic meters per year, expandable up to twenty, but no more than without deliveries to Bulgaria and Greece eight. In 2021, reports Start Magazine, Italy will be imported 7.2 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani fuel, almost 10% of annual consumption. On the other hand, in oil, Azerbaijan is Italy’s main supplier, supplying 22.3% of imports in 2021.
Besides that of Shah Deniz, the Caucasian country has other fields, but for now only that of Absheron should start production for total 1.5 billion cubic meters year, most of which is destined to meet the growing domestic demand for gas. There are plans to increase the quotas 5 billion cubic meters year, but this requires significant investments which, as AlMonitor reports, cannot be made unless the gas is already “sold”. The other three fields are silent is explored and the development of which was entrusted to the company British Petroleum. So this is a situation in the making. The banks that finance large infrastructure projects are only willing to lend money when it is clear that sufficient income will come from operations to pay off the debt.
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Along with five other former Soviet republics (including Armeniathe Georgia and the Moldova), Azerbaijan joins the Eastern Partnership Initiative, a program for rapprochement with the European Union. This is a decadelong initiative, which in the case of Baku is increasing ambiguous results also due to the loss of credibility of the EU institutions after events such as Brexit and the strong increase in the weight of nationalist and rightwing extremist parties in the European Parliament. Some analysts have observed how both the European Union and Azerbaijan have maintained a passive and apathetic role in each other’s relations and how this could lead to unexpected developments in the future. The US NGO Freedom House, which monitors the state of freedom and democracy in all countries of the world, defines Azerbaijan as one unfree nation where power is concentrated in the hands of Ilham Aliyev, head of state since 2003. The Aliyev family has been in power since 1993, and opposition parties have not been able to win elections. Moreover, the last elections were boycotted by Aliyev’s opponents, who called the whole electoral process illegitimate. Control over the resources of the state and over the security forces guarantees the rulers a monopoly on the use of force and the consolidation of a privileged position of power. There are also serious problems and dysfunctions in the judiciary.
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The Russian invasion of Ukraine forced Azerbaijan to face one uncomfortable position between Moscow and Kyiv. President Aliyev traveled to the Ukrainian capital in January but was later invited to Moscow by Vladimir Putin to sign an agreement approval “of cooperation“Conscripted by the Russians. The agreement aims to ensure thatterritorial integrity the signatory and, as Carnegie Europe recalled, “respect for the principle of noninterference in the internal affairs of the other nation”. Among the most worrying aspects are the economic cooperation clauses and the obligation to “avoid obligations Activities that may cause harm in the interest of the other party”. This is a clause that can increase Moscow’s influence over Azerbaijan’s future energy projects. Baku did not join the Russianled Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) or the Eurasian Economic Union among the postSoviet states, but unlike Georgia and Ukraine, it did not make Moscow an enemy. The desire to join NATO was never expressed and this has led to the development of a kind of NATO mutual respect. Russia did not hinder Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the NagornoKarabakh war, lest it drive it into the arms of the West. Both Baku and Moscow acted on the basis of convenience, leading the former to sacrifice their relations with the West and the latter to neglect their ally Armenia, which depends on Russia for the economy, energy and security.