Wake up to VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a short 15-minute podcast released at 7 a.m. ET that highlights the day's top plays and biggest line moves. I'll also be breaking down the games on The Sweat this morning from 8-10 a.m. ET, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
With our VSiN betting splits you can always follow the latest odds and betting odds for every game.
In the meantime, let's examine where the smart money points to Saturday's loaded college basketball roster.
Creighton (18-7, ranked 17th) has won two straight games and just defeated Georgetown 94-72. On the other hand, Butler (16-9) has lost two of its last three games and is currently coming off a 78-72 loss to Marquette. This line started with Creighton listed as a roughly 3-point road favorite as some books opened Creighton at -2.5 while others opened at Creighton -3.5. Regardless of the opening game, the crowd thinks that this limit is far too low and rushes to the window to give Creighton, who has the better record and ranking, the points. However, despite Creighton receiving 77% of the spread bets, in our opinion the value remained stagnant at -3. Some stores even briefly fell to -2.5. When a team receives such one-sided support, they typically go up to -4 or -5. This lack of movement suggests a sharp line freeze or even reverse line movement at Butler, with the pros betting on the unpopular home dog and the points. Butler has value as an unranked, low-buying team against a high-selling team (54% ATS over the last two seasons). Butler is also one of the best contrarian players of the day, receiving just 23% of the spread bets. Ken Pom has Creighton winning by just one point (76-75), providing a viable advantage for Butler +3. Butler is also a “dog who can score” system fit (80 PPG), meaning he’s more likely to keep up or hold backdoor coverage. Butler is also better at the free throw line (79% vs. 77%) and has a better offensive rebound percentage (29% vs. 26%). Butler is 11-3 at home this season. Butler defeated Creighton on the road on February 2nd, 99-98.
Wisconsin (17-8, ranked 20th) just ended a four-game losing streak with a 62-54 win over Ohio State. Meanwhile, Iowa (14-11) has alternated wins and losses in its last six games and just lost to Maryland 78-66. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public sees a simple layup with Wisconsin coming up short. Despite receiving 69% of the bets, Wisconsin fell from -1.5 to -1. This signals low pro-money buying levels in Iowa and triggers a sharp reversal in favor of the Hawkeyes. Iowa receives just 31% of the spread bets but 54% of the spread dollars, a significantly contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split in their favor. Iowa has the edge on offense, averaging 84 PPG compared to 74 PPG for Wisconsin. Iowa also has better offensive efficiency (16th vs. 19th), better effective field goal rate (53% vs. 52%), better turnover rate (8th vs. 67th), and better free throw shooting (78% vs. 76%). . Iowa also has value as an unranked, low-buy team against a top-ranked sales team (54% ATS over the last two seasons). Iowa is 11-3 at home while Wisconsin is just 3-6 on the road. This is also revenge for Iowa, which lost 83-72 on the road to Wisconsin on January 2nd. Those looking to support Wisconsin should look for the catch (+1.5).
Kansas (19-6, No. 6) has lost two of its last three games and was just defeated by Texas Tech 79-50. Oklahoma (18-7, ranked 25th) also just ended its two-game winning streak, falling to Baylor 79-62. This line started with Kansas as a 1-point road favorite. The public is represented throughout Kansas, with 79% of bets coming up short. This one-sided bet saw Kansas go from -1 to -2. However, we are now seeing a strong buyback in Oklahoma plus the points, with most of the market pushing Oklahoma up +2 to -115, signaling a possible decline to +1.5. In other words, Oklahoma has value as a bloated opponent in a high-stakes game. Oklahoma receives only 21% of the spread bets but 36% of the spread dollars, indicating a strong contrarian betting split in their favor. This is also a “Ken Pom Sound the Alarm” play, as Ken Pom ensures Oklahoma wins the game outright (72-71), providing actionable value for Oklahoma +2. Oklahoma has a big lead when it comes to offensive rebound percentage (31% vs. 26%). Oklahoma is 13-2 at home while Kansas is just 2-5 on the road. This is also revenge for Oklahoma, which lost 78-66 on the road to Kansas on January 13th.