José Berríos, you might think, or Paul Molitor, or maybe Jack Morris, or Dave Winfield. Dave McKay, if you really want to go back in history, and yes, we’re trying to help all the Immaculate Grid players prepare for the Minnesota/Toronto Wild Card Series with some players who have seen it from both sides. (Our personal favorite: Nelson Liriano.)
In our opinion, it is the most interesting of the four Wild Card series, not only because of the players involved, but also because of the balance of these clubs. Each side has outstanding pitching. There are one or two Star Bats on each side that don’t function exactly like a Star Bat. Even though it’s not easy to predict, it will definitely be fun to watch.
So: Which side has the advantage position for position? We’ll find out, but the twins won’t make it easy for us either. Heading into the final day of the season, Royce Lewis (thigh), Carlos Correa (foot) and Byron Buxton (thigh/knee) are all injured and it remains to be seen who will make it back and in what capacity. We will move forward under the following assumptions: first, that Lewis can hit but cannot be relied upon to play third base; secondly, that Correa will be active even if he is not 100% fit; and third, that Buxton will either not be included in the roster or will only be a pinch-hitter.
But be aware: a lot can still change before the rosters are finalized.
The Jays had a pretty stellar duo in Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen — good enough that they felt comfortable sending Gabriel Moreno to Arizona last winter — but then Jansen broke a finger in September, ending his season. Kirk is something like the best blocking catcher in the American League, but his OPS of .695 is significantly down from last year’s .786, and without Jansen they’re now just a false foul pick because of what they’ve been doing on the season Journeyman Tyler Heineman will have to leave the postseason.
Meanwhile, the Twins have their own duo in rising star Ryan Jeffers (134 OPS+ and top-10 catcher, according to WAR) and two-time World Series winner Christian Vázquez, who remains a plus defender in every way that can be quantified , but the less said about his bat the better. (Good. It’s a .221/.277/.318 line. That’s not great.) A year ago, this would have been Toronto’s fringe, but as things stand today, you’d side with the Twins.
What are you even doing here when you consider that the Jays have an absolute superstar in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who had a season that was simultaneously incredibly disappointing (by his high standards) and still pretty solid (26 HR, 118 OPS+ ) is? If it’s bad for what you expect from him, that’s not the same as bad, and what still works in his favor is that he was much better in September (.848 OPS) and away from Toronto a lot, much better, which is important since this best-of-three game is played entirely in Minnesota.
The Twins tend to play with a platoon between left-hander Alex Kirilloff (.852 OPS against righties; numbers against other lefties unprintable) and right-hander Donovan Solano, a generally competent hitter without any platoon splits. The fact that the Jays may not use a left-handed pitcher in this series actually helps the Twins here, but given that Kirilloff hasn’t really outperformed Guerrero this season and certainly doesn’t have the same track record, we’ll give the Jays the edge here .
Lewis’ health causes some moving factors here, as long-time infielder Jorge Polanco is likely to see more time at third, so rookie breakout Edouard Julien is the likely starter here, although the emphasis is on the starter since Polanco possibly moving back to defense If the Twins keep the lead, it will be too late. Julien has top-notch plate discipline – the lowest chase rate in the game, in fact – and an OPS+ of 127 means he’s 27% above average as a hitter, which is beyond impressive for a rookie. The glove is fine; the train divisions are questionable; The ability not to leave the zone is extraordinary.
Here, too, the Jays are in a bit of a state of flux, as it looks like the crucial needle has landed again on Cavan Biggio, who was initially the team’s second baseman in 2019 but seemed to have completely fallen out of favor as his role became a “useful man” or “I’m just hanging on in one spot.” But Whit Merrifield’s second-half collapse (.553 OPS since Aug. 1) has shortened his playing time, and Davis Schneider’s briefly blistering run left him so quickly that he was tied to the bench. For his part, Biggio appears to have found a second life with a .756 OPS in the second half
Bo Bichette and Carlos Correa seem like a compelling matchup of young star shortstops, and they would be if both were at or near their peak, but that’s not the state we’re in right now. Correa hasn’t played since Sept. 18 due to plantar fasciitis, and while he’s expected to be available in the postseason, the injury is almost certainly the reason for the severe declines in his speed and defense. It’s also hard to say that the .230/.312/.399 line is exactly what Twins fans were hoping for, although it’s important to point out that he usually comes out on top in the playoffs , with 18 home runs and an OPS of .849.
Bichette has had his own leg injuries but has had a typically strong season (.307/.338/.472, 122 OPS+) and has been particularly hot in the final 15 games. The name value may be comparable here, but the game value in 2023 is easy to name.
We are also surprised at where we gain an advantage here. The Blue Jays have Matt Chapman, the multiple Gold Glove winner, who is off to one of the hottest starts of all this year with a 1.152 OPS in April. The Twins had Jose Miranda, until they had Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro, until they had Royce Lewis, but then Lewis got hurt, so Polanco moved, and then Lewis came back and got hurt again, and now it’s probably Polanco or again Farmer? It’s a bit messy, that’s the point.
And yet… Chapman spent five months fighting in unusual ways. If April was the best month he ever had, and it was, then August was his worst month and September was only slightly better. (He’s hit .185/.259/.315 since August 1.) Given the likelihood that Lewis will be limited to playing DH, there isn’t necessarily a single third base option for Minnesota that you’re thinking of that you want her to face Chapman for six months . But for two days, the ability to switch between the speedy Castro, the switch-hitting Polanco or Farmer or Solano as needed could give Rocco Baldelli more options. You might be surprised to learn that Minnesota’s third basemen easily outscore Toronto’s anyway.
The Blue Jays made their commitment to more speed and defense in the outfield clear last year when they traded Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel to Arizona for Varsho, and the fielding part of that worked, as Varsho was one of the better outfielders in baseball with the glove this year . However, the slugger was a significant disappointment despite the 20 home runs, as a .220/.286/.391 line translates to a below-average 86 OPS+.
As with third place, the Twins have had a number of situations here with nine starters, but the Joey Gallo-Trevor Larnach situation early in the season has gradually given way to rookie Matt Wallner playing almost every day. Wallner, like Julien and Lewis, was great, posting a .251/.373/.512 season (141 OPS+). He’s a left-handed hitter who hits the ball hard, strikes out too often, and has a top-notch cannon arm, which sounds more than a little like “Joey Gallo when Gallo was doing well.” Varsho’s poor season makes this an easy decision, but the fact that Wallner could face three right-backs given his massive platoon splits also makes it easy.
Imagine if Byron Buxton were here? You have to, because he hasn’t taken the field once this season and it seems unlikely he will do so in October. Instead, the Twins have mostly used Michael A. Taylor, who does exactly what he always does, which is to provide some power (21 home runs), play great defense (8 outs above average), and get a strikeout outright too much (33%). Castro and possibly Andrew Stevenson provide excellent speed off the bench if Baldelli wants that.
It’s really not a bad group, but when it comes to defense, you just won’t do better than Kevin Kiermaier, who is legitimately one of the best to ever play the position. With just eight home runs, he may not have quite the power of Taylor, but he is significantly better at getting on base, giving him an OPS+ of 104, which is better than Taylor’s 94. None of this is a knock against Taylor, who ended up playing significantly more than anyone else was expected to, and who performed pretty much exactly as you would expect from him. Kiermaier is simply a better version.
When it comes to name value, George Springer easily edges out Max Kepler, and a 20/20 season from one of the most successful postseason performers in history is never to be taken lightly. But even taking that into account, Springer barely had a Springer-like season, with a career-worst – by far – OPS of .732, largely supported by the underlying Statcast metrics.
Meanwhile, Kepler turned around a string of disappointing seasons by posting an .815 OPS, his best since 2019 (and the second-best of his career), continuing his usual defensive-plus performance in right field. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if Springer opened this series with another home run in October. It’s just difficult at the moment to evaluate these two side by side and not choose Kepler.
Now things get complicated because for the twins it all depends on who is available. Maybe it’s Buxton, who started 80 times here, especially in the first half, but all indications are that it will probably be Lewis, assuming his hamstring has healed well enough to bat, but not to get into the field. When he’s at full strength, this is a potentially dangerous hitter, given not only the 149 OPS+ but also the seemingly endless bases-loaded heroics.
We don’t know if Lewis will be healthy enough to produce, and at the time of writing, we’re not even entirely sure he’ll make the roster. It’s that uncertainty that drives us toward Toronto’s Brandon Belt, a two-time World Series winner with the Giants who returned to a 134 OPS+, which actually looks better given his April recovery from offseason knee surgery disregards; he has an OPS of .916 since May 1st. Belt is not without health questions, having missed part of September with back problems, but he returned to hit home runs on Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Seems healthy enough to us.
Let’s be clear: There are absolutely zero correct answers here. We’re looking at the two best starting rotations in the AL, at least by ERA, and both sides have come into their own in time to get their rotations set well enough, so let’s look at Pablo López vs. Kevin Gausman in Game 1 (potentially two Top-5 Cy Young finishers), then Sonny Gray vs. Chris Bassitt in Game 2, two former Oakland teammates who combined just 384 innings of pitching with a 3.21 ERA this year.
How can you split that up? Most of the time this is not possible. If there is an advantage, and there isn’t most of the time, we’ll give it to Toronto just because Minnesota’s Game 3 starter (Joe Ryan) was inconsistent after a stellar first half and had a 4.79 ERA in seven starts after a visit scored the injured list. The Blue Jays would likely counter with old Twins friend José Berríos, who bounced back strongly from a loss in 2022 – or, if they want to change things up, with lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who posted a 3 ERA in the second half, 39 had.
Both units are strong, but it kind of depends on whether you appreciate their performances throughout the season or just care about who’s here now. The Blue Jays relievers had the third-best bullpen strikeout rate at 26%, although not far ahead of Minnesota’s eighth-best 25%. It’s really been a strength all season, dating back to last winter when Erik Swanson was acquired from Seattle, and although there have been some concerns about closers Jordan Romano (four runs allowed in the last nine games) and Trevor Richards (an unimaginable 11.81 ERA since August 23), it’s still a strong group, bolstered by in-season moves from Jordan Hicks, Génesis Cabrera and Chad Green.
But the Twins…well, the Twins bullpen is something completely new. Gone are names like Jorge López and Jovani Moran from the early season; In-season additions like Dylan Floro have also disappeared. While everyone knows the flame-throwing Jhoan Duran, the Twins sometimes have starter Louie Varland (17/1 K/BB in relief; he throws 100) and rehabbing starter Chris Paddack (8/1 K/BB in three games) at season’s end ; he pitches 99) and newly healthy Brock Stewart (0.66 ERA) and starter Kenta Maeda could also be available. The September Twins bullpen had a 30% strikeout rate, second best in baseball. Baldelli has some new toys.
We typically say that head-to-head regular-season matchups have very little predictive value in predicting the outcome of a postseason series, in part because they often took place so long ago that completely different players were involved, and that is true here ; These teams have not played each other since June. They haven’t faced each other since May in Minnesota.
On the other hand, they went 3-3 on the season, and the Twins outscored the Jays in two runs, 28-26. So maybe that’s a prediction because that’s exactly how we feel about this game – these clubs are really equal. We’ll say this is finally the season where the Twins break their incredible streak of not winning a single postseason game, but considering how much better the Jays seem to be doing on the road – and especially because we Before the season, we personally predicted Toronto would lose to Atlanta in the World Series, and wouldn’t it be nice to be able to do that in this hard-to-predict season? – Toronto is ahead by a razor-thin margin.