Seeing the image of more than a thousand bare torsos, covered in tattoos, bowing to the ground with their shaved heads, guarded by hooded guards in stark black, evokes mixed feelings. On the one hand, the unspeakable relief that comes with the certainty that the citizens will not find any of these prisoners at the end of an alley that night and the nights that follow. But in the folds of that satisfaction lies a disturbing thought; The photo refers to a herd of masses subjected to the power of the club, an image associated with a fascist state.
Between these two sensations, it is evident that the first prevails. Or how else the approval ratings of 90% (February data) of Nayib Bukele, the Salvadoran President who is responsible for the frontal fight of criminal gangs in his country. In January, the President inaugurated the world’s largest prison, with a capacity of 40,000 inmates, called the Terrorism Confinement Center, a name that casts doubt on the state’s attitude toward criminals. That day, Bukele tweeted: “Will they be able to issue orders from within? No. Will they be able to escape? No. A work of common sense.
Common sense or not, the truth is that it is words and images that are cherished by most of their country’s citizens who are fed up with violence. Behind Bukele’s approval ratings is El Salvador’s staggering decline in crime. From a rate of 106 deaths per 100,000 people in 2015, the worst in the world, it fell to 7.8 in 2022, similar to the United States. Just how big that change is, compare it to the numbers for Mexico: between 30 and 29 homicides per 100,000 people at the start of the six-year term, 28 in 2021 and could fall to 25 this year, still one of the highest among countries its size and economic importance: the average in Europe is 1. If the trend of the first months of 2023 continues, El Salvador could end the year as the safest country on the continent, its authorities say.
In return for this “rest”, the Salvadorans decided to give Bukele many other things. The President dissolved Parliament, declared a state of emergency that allows any suspect to be treated as a terrorist with the resulting human rights irregularities, modified the re-election laws and unceremoniously submitted to the critical press. And yet people enthusiastically vote for him. The pacification has not resulted in an improvement in the economic situation, but the drop in corporate blackmail, the rise in tourism and positive assessments by international agencies are fueling the government’s promises that they will now reap long-expected prosperity. Will have to see.
The Bukele model, The Economist confirms this week, is not fully exportable due to the peculiarities of this small country of just over 6 million people and an area similar to that of Nayarit. But tell that to the politicians who are popping up in Central America and the Caribbean promising something similar.
Mexico doesn’t have the level of violence that Bukele catapulted, but it has accumulated a fatigue after decades of impotence in the face of insecurity, and there are regions of extreme violence emulating that of the Central American country. I don’t see Bolsonaro or Bukele heading into the 2024 presidential election, but unless uncertainty improves, there could be such a risk for 2030 or even for the referendum to revoke the mandate in 2026 or 2027. At a rate of 9 in 10, Salvadorans support those who have taken away their basic freedoms. It’s very easy to judge them, but we shouldn’t do it. What should be done is to avoid at all costs that we fall into this impasse in which we are forced to choose between such a terrible melon or a watermelon.
Faced with such a risk, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has resorted to the army, so far little more than face to face. In theory, in the face of an escalation of violence or extreme citizen despair, the military and its stationing in barracks throughout the territory would spring into action and face the threat, thus preventing the arrival of a fascist-leaning politician who wants to “profit” from fear of insecurity. Some wonder if the cure is nearly as harmful as the disease, judging by the military’s penchant for violating civil liberties.
I don’t see Claudia Sheinbaum or Marcelo Ebrard, who are the most likely successors in the 4T government, sharing López Obrador’s enthusiasm for the generals over the uncertainty. In Mexico City, Sheinbaum has promoted a more articulate alternative in policing, non-military terms, endorsing a professional police officer, Omar García Harfuch. For his part, Ebrard, who was Minister of Public Safety in the capital, has not concealed his inclination for a civilian option to solve the problem.
The opposition’s inability to generate convincing proposals or attractive cadres for the majority will sooner or later turn the issue of public insecurity and fear into an irresistible vein. In the United States and Europe, the ultra-right has gained space and, in some cases, power by exploiting fears of migration and imports from China; How long will it be before the Mexican right presses the button that exploits the fear of hitmen and blackmailers?
When a Bukele arrives, he won’t necessarily be a right-wing reactionary, but an attractive young man with simple verbs and superficial common sense, a charismatic social media genius who can promise and convince many of his power to create solutions magically. In Brazil, he came into contact with the army itself through retired soldier Jair Messias Bolsonaro.
Obviously the best thing would be to solve the public insecurity problem now, which is not happening, or not at the required speed. If the governments of the 4T or the democratic interests of whatever tendency do not want to be surprised by this flank, they would have to construct their own answers; the cadres who can compete against the Bukeles with convincing arguments and a politically attractive presence. And for that he needs the Harfush to equip himself with. I’m not saying he is exactly, but his equivalent. Politicians-officials with experience and results in this area, competitive in elections. Something besides being easy prey for snake charmers, there will be.
Jorge Zepeda Patterson’s Twitter account: @jorgezedap
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