The Cardinals and right-handers Lance Lynn have agreed on a one-year contract with a club option for the 2025 season, Reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Lynn, a client of Headline Sports Group, will earn around $10 million from the deal, which is still pending physical completion. Jon Heyman of the New York Post puts The guarantee is $11 million, noting there is a $10 million salary in 2024 and a $1 million buyout on the 2025 option. The contract, which includes $3 million in potential incentives in 2024, can be worth a maximum of $24 million over two seasons. That would mean a value of $11 million for the 2025 option.
It’s a homecoming for the 36-year-old Lynn, whom the Cardinals selected with the No. 39 overall pick in the 2008 draft. The 6-foot-11 right-hander spent the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis, cementing himself as a premier big-league player by throwing 977 2/3 innings of 3.38 ERA ball. Lynn reached free agency after that strong run, but did so fresh off the shaky strikeout, walk and home run rates of his career in 2016. He turned down a qualifying offer from the Cards in the offseason, found a tepid market and landed Eventually, the Twins reached a one-year deal, agreed upon after the start of spring training.
Things didn’t go well in Minnesota, but Lynn recovered somewhat after a trade to the Yankees and revived his career in a subsequent four-year stint between the Rangers and White Sox. From 2019 to 2022, Lynn was one of the American League’s most consistent and best starters. During that time, he pitched 571 innings of 3.42 ERA ball and struck out 26.8% of his opponents with a 6.2% walk rate. This achievement came as part of a three-year, $30 million contract originally agreed to with Texas and a two-year, $38 million extension with Chicago following a trade with the ChiSox.
The second season of this extension last year was the worst season of Lynn’s long career. Lynn was the most home run-prone pitcher in baseball in 2023, giving up an average of 2.16 long balls per nine frames (44 total). He stayed healthy and pitched plenty of innings, totaling 183 2/3 frames between the Sox and Dodgers, but his 5.73 earned-run average that year was the second-highest among qualified starters, ahead of only Kansas City Jordan Lyles.
Despite this career-worst performance, Lynn will still secure an eight-figure guarantee. The Cardinals, who need at least three starters this winter, certainly value Lynn’s endurance and the large number of innings he can bring to the table. You’ll probably also be encouraged by the fact that, for all of his home run woes, Lynn still posted an above-average 23.8% strikeout rate and a solid 8.3% walk rate. The veteran right-hander’s swinging-strike rate of 12.9% was also well above the league average for a starting pitcher, and he also chased pitches off the plate at a slightly above-average rate of 32.4%. Lynn also still has good spin on his four-seater and his cutter.
Although there are many positive indicators, the bottom line in 2023 cannot be glossed over. It’s been a thoroughly poor season from Lynn, and he’ll need to bounce back significantly to make a meaningful impact on the Cardinals’ rotation. Given the Cardinals’ desperate need for help on the starting staff, St. Louis fans were understandably hoping for a clearer upgrade with their first addition.
However, the cards still have to fill at least two holes in the stick. If Lynn ends up being the “third” of the three additions this offseason, the overall prospects will improve significantly. Adding a durable innings-eater who can still miss at-bats and limit walks to round out the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation makes perfect sense, especially on a one-year deal with a club option. However, if the team’s impending additions are more along these lines, it’s fair to question the overall direction of the offseason. As with all transactions early in the offseason, it is impossible to determine the full context. The big picture will be much clearer come spring training.
Lynn’s return to the Cardinals brings her projected 2024 payroll to just over $159 million, according to Roster Resource. The Cards finished the 2023 season with a payroll in the $178 million range, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has indicated he doesn’t expect a significant increase in payroll. However, that’s not an indication that the Cardinals only have about $20 million in flexibility to work with. The Cards offered both contracts Dylan Carlson And Tyler O’Neill – both are considered obvious trade candidates.
According to MLBTR’s Matt Swartz, O’Neill will make $5.5 million in 2024, while Carlson is expected to make $1.8 million. Additionally, the Cardinals shed several significant salaries at the 2023 trade deadline but had expected a higher payroll before their summer sale. In all likelihood, there’s a value of around $40 million to work with – even after agreeing terms with Lynn – and that number could change somewhat depending on the outcome of various trade scenarios.