Prominent sinologist Susanne Weigelin-Schwiedrzik talks about the explosive resistance among the Chinese elite. And she explains why Beijing’s peace plan for Ukraine is important and how Europe can avoid a world war.
China’s head of state, Xi Jinping, is focused on security rather than prosperity. What is the reason?
The party no longer delivers on its promise that people will be richer with a richer China. The social contract that has kept the regime in China relatively stable since 1989 is beginning to weaken. Trust diminishes when the state takes control of companies like Alibaba. Or if, like the pandemic, he lets small businesses die. But this is part of a strategy to gradually reduce private sector participation. Xi Jinping is preparing the Chinese for war against the US, even if he doesn’t necessarily want to. He thinks that the hope of a strengthened China moving peacefully to the center of the world no longer has any basis.
Is there no resistance to the predictable loss of wealth?
People are scared. The situation reminds me of the 1970s, when I studied in China for the first time. Mao was still alive at that time. We were very careful. Despite all the fear, people sometimes expressed criticism when they had confidence. Chinese society has always known hidden forms of resistance. The powerful informal economic sector falls into this situation and is painful for the State because it loses taxes. Irony is a way out. But a revolution from below never took place in China. People take to the streets when they know the elite is dividing. This was also the case in 1989.
And is there resistance among the elite?