The year of policeman 27 is the farewell to the negationist politics of the former president jair Bolsonaro and the former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrisonand Britain’s accession to the throne Charles IIIspent on the plans cull emissions. But it is also the year of the Russian invasion Ukrainethe short iron in between United States and China and the European Union, masters of the goal Net Zero Emissions (and later on the climate finance front), grappling with the energy crisis and the gas thirst. To understand who kept the promises of Cop26 from Glasgow just know that only 24 of the 193 countries participating in the COP have reviewed their climate plans (Ndc, nationally determined contributions, nationally determined contributions): We are talking about 12.5%. That means almost 88% did absolutely nothing. And even fewer have they actually improved their politics. Sure, it’s the year of the COP Egyptian out Sharm El Sheikh, today at the start and that precedes that of 2023 in Dubai, in United Arab Emirates: These two countries have submitted new NDCs, but it is legitimate to ask what they are really doing about it change climatic.
A year ago the trial of strength and the promises – The Glasgow Climate Pact had actually postponed the adoption road map Reduce and achieve CO2 emissions by 45% (compared to 2010) by 2030 zero emissions net ‘around the middle of the century’. The US and EU would no longer grant the fund for losses and damages requested by the Group of 77 (130 nations). China which, however, is far from being a vulnerable country or a developing country. However, in exchange for their signature on the final document, China and India They wanted the elimination target of the Money (among other things, only the one without emission reduction, editor’s note) was replaced by the less ambitious concept reduction progressive. It was also convenient for Saudi Arabia Am Salmandrove past to Australia Morrison and to Russia Putin. The nations also signed it at the opening of the Cop26 had zero net emissions by 2060 (China and Russia) and 2070 (India). In order to achieve these goals, however, revision yearlyalready by 2022, the reduction commitments by 2030. Also because, according to Unep’s 2021 report on the emissions, the climate plans of the countries led to global warming of 2.7 degrees. However, the improvement in NDCs was volunteers. And everyone has their own way.
The new NDCs, few and insufficient – They just checked their NDCs 24 countriesbut many have only provided more information. Even among the big polluters, many new voluntary national contributions and those that arrived later failed to submit them Glasgow cut the budget by less than 1% carbon World. It means reducing greenhouse gases by 5-10% by the end of the decade, while 30-45% must be achieved. Even if implemented to the letter, the new NDCs would still lead to a warming of 2.4 °C in perspective optimistic this includes conditional NDCs, i.e. targets to which countries commit themselves reach, provided certain conditions are met. Hence the alarm raised by the reportUnep ‘The Closing Window’: “With the current politics of the overheating it threatens to reach 2.8 degrees by the end of the century”. Net-zero emissions by 2050 are getting further away.
also read
Cop27, the realpolitik of the climate ambassador: “New goals? It will already be a success to keep those of the past. In the G20 there is a trend towards reversal “
USA and China, tension does not help – The United States and China have not submitted new NDCs. At the end of the COP 26, the two main producing countries of carbon dioxide the world they had announced a collaboration. The energy and economic crisis and the associated tensions Taiwan they didn’t help. biden has struggled to get Congress to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, a $370 billion package reconciliation energy. A less ambitious version of the Build back better act, a $3.5 trillion plan proposed by the President and never approved. And on November 8, the US returns to voting for midterm elections, the results of which could have A hit about the president’s room for maneuver should Congress get more Republican representatives. And that despite the fact that the possibility of entering into dialogue with the again has been discussed for weeks China before COP 27 and the United States Climate Commissioner, John Kerryhe urged Beijing There were no signs of relaxation when bilateral talks resumed. Actually loud Climate protection trackerthe two powers’ efforts so far are “inadequate” in the case of the United States and “majorly insufficient” in the case of China, which has stayed out. Glasgow – along with India and Russia – there too Global Methane Pledgewhich aims to the methane emissions until 2030.
The European Union between war and change of priorities – The EU is also coming to COP 27 without having updated its own Ndcbut in the coming months it is set to raise emissions reduction targets for 2030 from 55% to 57% compared to 1990 levels. According to the Climate Action Tracker, it is “inadequate”: the plan is good REPowerEUproposed by the EU Commission in May 2022, let alone the reactions of some member states that “in response to the price increase of fuels fossilsthey provide subsidies for theirs consumption“And the inclusion of gas and nuclear in the list of sustainable investments the green taxonomy. A decision that was primarily made under pressure from some countries interested in nuclear power Francebut in which the gas addiction of others played an important role conditions members. Even more so after the invasion of Ukraine and the desire to distance oneself from the Russian one, which brought it back Germany on the coal road and Italy, right now to unlock snails to increase the methane yield inAdriatic.
New wind in Australia and Brazil and Great Britain – Among the countries that have submitted new targets Big Brittany, Australia, Brazil and India. The UK has contributed to this changes minimum. Charles III carries with him the weight of colonialism, one of the engines of the climate crisis, and in this regard has never commented on the mechanism of Loss & Damage that would help the most vulnerable countries on earth. After giving up participating in Cop27, he hosted one Buckingham palace a reception for the handover between Cop26 in Glasgow and Cop27, which the Premier will attend instead Rishi sunak. A real wind of change could come Australiaafter the Labor victory in the general election Anton Albanese. Canberra immediately put on paper its target of net-zero emissions by 2050 (belatedly promised by the former Prime Minister). Scott Morrison), but most importantly a cut of at least 43% (compared to 2005 levels) by 2030. The environmental plan calls for a ban on new coal and gas projects, but Australia is one of the US’s biggest exporters coal world (particularly to China) and natural gas and to Glasgow refused to keep the promises to reduce methane emissions and achieve the phase-out of coal. Even newer, in Brazilthe election victory of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who defeated Jair Bolsonaro. Too early to take stock. Lula said the next government “will fight for them zero deforestation in the Amazon “and that Brazil” is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against it crisis climatic“. To do this, the NDC presented in March 2022 must improve, more ambitious than that of 2020 but weaker than the targets of 2016, before the Bolsonaro era.
These ambitious goals – And then there’s theIndia which approved an update to its NDC in August 2022 committing to do so to reduceby 2030, the intensity of GDP emissions will be 45% compared to 2005. But a Glasgow prompted to further reduce ambition fuels fossils and the country expects to reach net zero of emissions not until 2070. Also Egypt and United Arab Emirates, hosting the COP this year and 2023, have unveiled new NDCs. Made the first improvements minimum compared to the previous post, which however had no emission reduction target at all. Egypt, responsible for over a third of all fossil gas consumption in Africaexpands his production. The Emirates are also planning a significant increase in the production and consumption of fuels fossils. And so getting out is becoming increasingly difficult. Since the data from OECD and International Energy Agencythe world’s 51 largest economies spent nearly $700 billion on i in 2021 subsidies fossilstwice as much as 2020. And between the G20 countries, between budget transfers and concessions VAT related to the manufacture and use of MoneySubsidies for oil, gas and other petroleum products increased from $147 billion to $190 in one year. Even before the invasion ofUkraine.