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Steam and smoke rise from the Belchatow Power Plant in Rogowiec, Poland.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates CNN —
An International Energy Agency analysis released on Sunday shows the world is still unable to limit global warming to the crucial 1.5 degree threshold, despite dozens of countries at the United Nations-backed climate talks in Dubai have made commitments to reduce environmental pollution.
The assessment is the first comprehensive report on what the COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai have achieved so far.
The results show the commitments would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 4 gigatons – less than a third of what is now needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrialization temperatures. Science shows that life on Earth will have difficulty adapting beyond this.
An IEA statement said the pledges would be “far from enough” to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.
Executive Director Fatih Birol said the commitments were “positive” and in line with some recommendations made by the IEA ahead of the talks. But he said not enough countries had joined them and that commitments to ensure a decline in fossil fuel consumption were needed to close the gap.
“The IEA's latest assessment of these commitments shows that if fully implemented by their signatories so far, they would close only 30% of the gap to achieving international climate goals,” Birol told CNN. “It is necessary that more countries and companies join the pledges – and that we agree on an orderly and equitable decline in global fossil fuel consumption if we are to keep the 1.5°C target within reach.”
COP28 negotiators are discussing an agreement in which they could call for the phase-out of fossil fuels – the main driver of climate change – for the first time at the annual climate negotiations.
The language surrounding fossil fuels is extremely contentious, and there are deep differences of opinion on the issue. More than 100 countries support a phase-out in some form, but some oil-producing nations want no reference to oil and gas reductions at all.
The IEA analysis was based on commitments to renewable energy, energy efficiency and reductions in methane, a potent greenhouse gas.
More than 120 countries, including the United States, have now agreed to support tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency measures.
Fifty major oil and gas companies, including Exxon and Saudi Aramco, also signed a pledge at the talks to reduce methane emissions from their oil and gas operations by the end of the decade. This means a reduction in the methane intensity of their products by around 80 to 90%. They also agreed to end routine flaring by 2030. Flaring is the intentional burning of natural gas during oil production. Sometimes companies flare natural gas to depressurize systems during oil drilling. However, at other times, flaring occurs even when an operator does not need or want to collect all of the available gas, often because it is cheaper to burn it than to collect it.
Fossil fuel consumption is the main driver of the climate crisis. At COP26 talks in Glasgow, Scotland, countries agreed to phase out coal production in 2021, but negotiations over language around all fossil fuels, including oil and gas, are proving more contentious.
The talks come at the end of a year hit hard by the worsening climate crisis. Scientists have confirmed that 2023 is officially the hottest year on record. Extreme weather events made more likely or more intense by the climate crisis – including fires, floods, heat waves and hurricanes – have claimed lives in many parts of the world.
COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber said that while there had been progress in the talks, negotiations were not progressing quickly enough.
“Am I happy with the speed and pace? The answer is no, he told reporters on Sunday before convening a roundtable with ministers to try to break the impasse on several issues, including the future of fossil fuels.
“Time is ticking. “The clock is ticking, and I'm sure you all can hear it, just as I can hear it,” he said, “and we need to move much, much, much faster.”
Al Jaber has been the subject of controversy for months, long before talks began on November 30. The United Arab Emirates was accused of a conflict of interest in appointing Al Jaber as chairman of the talks, as he also runs the country's state-owned oil and gas company, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.