In the five weeks since the start of the war, several thousand Russian soldiers have been killed. Western experts agree on this magnitude. However, there is little information about the dead on the Ukrainian side. “We don’t really know anything about it,” says Michael Kofman of the US think tank CNA.
It is part of the logic of a war that opponents are reluctant to report casualties in their own ranks. And the official numbers, difficult to verify, are presumably underestimates.
The Russian General Staff on Friday admitted the death of 1,351 soldiers and wounded another 3,825. NATO estimates that of the 150,000 to 200,000 Russian troops in Ukraine, 30,000 to 40,000 are disabled – killed, wounded or captured.
Kiev has given numbers twice so far, most recently on March 12. According to this, 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed up to this point. In war, it is generally assumed that there are three wounded for every soldier killed. That means more than 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers are out of action. Again, this number is probably too low.
Significantly more Russian losses
Still, several observers assume that the Ukrainian army, in its defensive position, suffered fewer casualties than the Russian army. “The conflict in Ukraine provides an excellent demonstration of military theorist Clausewitz’s principle that force is spent less on defense than on offense,” says the French think tank FRS. “All the more so because the Ukrainian armed forces chose tactics based on high-tech guerrilla operations rather than direct confrontation.”
The website oryxspioenkop.com tries to compile an overview of losses based on photos and videos of the combat zones. As of Tuesday, the Russian army had lost 318 tanks, more than 550 armored vehicles, 16 fighter jets, 35 helicopters and two ships. The Ukrainian armed forces lost 79 tanks, less than 200 armored vehicles, 12 fighter jets and 13 ships, according to the website.
It is true that Ukraine’s military capabilities are inferior to those of the Russian army. But since Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the conflict in the pro-Russian breakaway areas in the east of the country, Ukraine, with Western support, has massively upgraded its army to bring it closer to NATO standards.
The military budget has tripled to €3.5 billion by 2021, and the command structure has been reformed. The US has provided Ukraine with $2.5 billion in military aid since 2014, and NATO has sent trainers.
Civilians also count as “combat troops”
In the fight against superior attackers, the army also benefits significantly from foreign weapons, such as Turkish TB2 combat drones or British and American anti-tank missiles, which NATO countries have provided since the beginning of the conflict.
Last but not least, Ukraine has a large reservoir of armed forces. In addition to the 130,000 ground troops, there are hundreds of thousands of reservists and volunteer battalion members.
“Ukrainian losses are probably substantial,” says a British expert who wishes to remain anonymous. “But their combat troops are actually bigger than the Russians because they have thousands of Ukrainian and foreign volunteers.”