An increasingly important player in international relations is Arab diplomacy. In the last few days he has achieved two image victories. One of them is the result of Cop28 in Dubai, where the hosts managed to resolve a dispute over the final document to end fossil fuels. The other success is the Biden administration's strong distancing from the Israeli government regarding the future of Gaza. In both cases, a new generation of Arab leaders – particularly the Saudis and the Emiratis – were able to consolidate their role.
In the fight against climate change, the Arabs have initiated a mediation that satisfies everyone and promises substantial and at the same time realistic decarbonization. When it comes to the war in Gaza, it is now clear that America wants to protect its relationships with moderate Arab governments almost as much as it wants to protect its alliance with Israel. Therefore, it is ready to use all its influence to impose on Netanyahu or his successors the creation of a Palestinian state that meets the conditions set by the moderate Sunni Arab Front.
COP28 brought together 190 countries under the presidency of the United Arab Emirates. Ultimately, he made more dramatic statements about the need to reduce fossil fuel consumption than seemed possible just 48 hours ago. The final agreement states in English: “Transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a fair, orderly and equitable manner.” The seemingly impossible concession was offered at the last minute by Sultan Al Jaber, who combines the roles of Emirati industry minister, special climate change envoy and president of the Abu Dhabi national oil company. Al Jaber led the work of Cop28 and the final turning point was his work. By including the goal of moving away from fossil fuels, it accommodated an environmentalist front in developed countries. He satisfied the global Great South by specifying that this must be done in a “fair, just and orderly” manner, that is, gradually and compatible with the growth needs of emerging countries. Elsewhere, in the 11,000 words of the final text, other bold goals appear, such as tripling the energy generated by solar, wind and other renewables. All of this is positive, since until the last minute any talk of fossil fuel extraction seemed ruled out.
Arab pragmatism has not been anchored in an all-out defense of gas and oil; However, he prevailed in terms of content. There is no talk of complete abandonment, and the extraction of oil and gas is referred to as “energy systems”: implicitly this means other uses such as the production of fertilizers for agriculture or all petrochemical derivatives such as medicines, biomedical devices, etc. Plastics also come in Electric cars are used. According to the current state of technology, there is no replacement for fossil energy in these sectors.
The goal of a rapid phase-out of fossil energy would have been unacceptable not only for those who produce it (such as Arab countries) but also for poor consumers. In the Southern Hemisphere, renewable energy is struggling to meet 5% of demand; For many countries, coal remains a cheap raw material to supply villages with electricity. Adding an old diatribe about what “renewable energy” is: for the Chinese government, nuclear power falls entirely into this category.
China's role is precisely what weakens the scope of this Cop28. The final document approved in Dubai is not binding on anyone. Not even for Beijing, which has always refused to submit to the control regimes in this area. Xi Jinping has consolidated the People's Republic's role as a “role model” for other emerging economies with this approach: he recognizes the full severity of the climate emergency and reiterates the need to mitigate it; invests heavily in renewable energies and has thus achieved a dominant position in the production of electric cars, batteries, solar panels, wind turbines and many other components of these technologies; It invests more than any other country in the world in nuclear energy (55 plants so far) and also exports it abroad. at the same time, China remains and will remain the largest consumer and importer of coal, oil and gas for a long time; In addition, it will continue to build coal and gas power plants both on its own territory and in other countries of the world. The time horizon within which Beijing wants to start reducing its CO2 emissions is the year 2060. This is also not a binding target. From here to then, however, anything the West does to reduce its emissions will have limited impact compared to the rise in CO2 emissions in China, India and the rest of the emerging world. China's demand for fossil fuels remains so dominant that it is often the most important explanation for market performance. For example: The main reason behind the recent decline in crude oil prices is the weakness of the Chinese economy. A slowdown in Chinese growth like the one currently taking place actually does more to reduce carbon emissions than signing a document at COP28. Sultan Al Jaber’s role was to “navigate” between all these real-world influences.
The other terrain in which Arab diplomacy is expanding its influence is the war in Gaza. To say that there is an unprecedented crisis between the United States and Israel is perhaps an exaggeration, since relations between Barack Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu were also poor. Today, however, the divergence between the two allies takes place against the backdrop of a terrible war, the most tragic of all, which has bloodily devastated the country due to its high death toll. In fact, Biden has come very close to the “Arab line,” at least when it comes to the future of Palestine. Without prejudice to the condemnation of Hamas and Israel's American-recognized right to destroy this terrorist organization, Biden accuses Netanyahu of at least two things. First, to conduct military operations in Gaza in a way that risks isolating Israel in the world and alienating the solidarity of even European countries. Second: that we have no viable plan for Gaza's future. For Biden, the Palestinian Authority must be involved in governing the Gaza Strip, albeit in a fundamentally renewed version compared to the current one, which (so to speak) governs the West Bank with its capital Ramallah. The Americans are putting pressure on the agency's president, Abu Mazen, to resign, organize new elections, take action against corruption and strengthen his police force. A reformed, renewed, newly legitimized and strengthened Palestinian Authority could govern Gaza with the political and financial support of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, perhaps even Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Morocco. The White House is working on this scenario, also to preserve the possibility of diplomatic recognition between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This type of plan has many points in common with the demands of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi; Few are familiar with Netanyahu's position.
Domestic politics weigh heavily on each of the actors. Biden has a Democratic Party that has shifted significantly in favor of Palestinians, particularly among the younger generation (although this will cost him support in the Jewish community). Furthermore, he does not want to end his first mandate with a Middle East in flames, bloodied and destroyed by Iran's destabilizing maneuvers.
Netanyahu is also looking ahead to the next elections. He still believes he can save his political career. In his view, the October 7 Hamas massacre has moved the Israeli electorate even further to the right, making them even more wary than before of concessions to the Palestinians, including the Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu may also be counting on his friend Donald Trump to return to the White House. On this last point, however, it should be remembered that it was the Trump administration that drafted the Abraham Accords (thaw between Israel and various Islamic countries, including the Emirates), and that under Trump the American-Saudi agreement Arabia was stable.
Even if there are no elections in the Arab world, there is a connection to public opinion. As Thomas Friedman noted in the New York Times, when Saudi Arabia hosted the “Riyadh Season” entertainment and sports festival on October 28, it was attacked by many social media influencers from Egypt to Kuwait for the mourning around Gaza insulted. A poll of the Saudi population conducted before October 7 for recognizing the State of Israel and normalizing relations had shown 70% support; Today, the same poll would not be repeated so as not to bring to light the dramatic change in sentiment among Prince Mohammed bin Salman's subjects.
Arab diplomacy is showing its weight. The Emirates, for example, is home to an American air base with 5,000 soldiers and has had relations with Israel for three years. They are an important mediator, as is Qatar. Together with the Saudis, they could bear much of the cost of rebuilding Gaza after the war. Emirati UN Ambassador Lana Nusseibeh (whose family is of Palestinian origin) explained the conditions: “We want to see a viable two-state solution, a serious path towards it, otherwise we will not fully dedicate ourselves to building it. “And our relations with Israel will also be affected.” Biden signs.