For the first time, countries have agreed to abandon fossil fuels to avoid the worst consequences of the climate crisis. The agreement reached at this year's United Nations climate summit (COP28) calls for countries to quickly transform their energy systems in a fair and orderly manner, but also contains loopholes that could slow the pace of emissions reductions, according to some critics.
COP28: Fossil fuels and agriculture divide Latin America
“We have the basis to make the transformation a reality. “It is a balanced and historic package to accelerate climate action,” said Sultan al Jaber, president of COP28, announcing what he called the “UAE consensus” on Wednesday.
Al Jaber, who is also CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), a major fossil fuel company, said the oil and gas sector was “making progress for the first time” to meet ambitious emissions targets. However, the influence of fossil fuel lobby groups on the agreement and the entire summit has been denounced.
Country delegates met in Dubai for two weeks to complete the global stocktake, which aimed to assess progress on climate action and outline what is still needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement target set in 2015. The global average temperature has already risen by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times.
COP28 got off to a good start on day one with the launch and capitalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, a global financial package to support the most vulnerable countries affected by the impacts of climate change. Developed countries have committed to contributing $700 million to the fund, which represents less than 0.2% of the losses that some studies estimate these countries are already suffering each year as a result of the climate crisis.
However, negotiations stalled because countries could not agree on the future of fossil fuels. More than 100 countries had pushed for the agreement to include clear language on phasing out oil, gas and coal, but faced resistance from OPEC, the organization that brings together major fossil fuel producing and exporting countries.
This resulted in the summit ending a day later than planned. After a first draft was rejected – and for many was ambitious – the final text calls on countries – albeit without commitments – to transition away from fossil fuels in their energy systems well before or around 2050 and the “inefficient” subsidies that encourage this , gradually abolish use. However, the text also recognizes the role that so-called “transitional fuels” such as natural gas can play in the energy transition.
The text also calls on countries to triple their renewable energy capacity by 2030 and double the annual rate of improvement in energy efficiency. However, the goal does not mention how these goals will be achieved, nor does it explain the financial support countries need to achieve them. Inadequate funding for climate action was one of the main contentious issues at the summit.
The text offers fossil capital the opportunity to continue to rule
Fossil fuels were the focus of COP28, but the text also “underlines” the importance of conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, through measures such as curbing deforestation and forest degradation to be taken in 2030. At COP26 in 2021, countries committed to the same goal, but it was not achieved, according to a report published this year.
For Susana Muhamad, Colombia's environment minister, science has influenced the decisions of a climate conference for the first time. But he warned of the risk that transition fuels would delay the transition away from fossil fuels. “The text offers fossil capital the opportunity to continue to rule and we cannot achieve the Paris goals,” he added.
Augusto Duran, energy specialist for the Citizens' Movement Against Climate Change (MOCICC), an organization in Peru, argued that the “hesitant and without clear mechanisms” reduction in fossil fuel consumption is “irresponsible and inadequate” and leaves countries with the choice of whether or not not to continue their dependence on oil, gas and coal.
Fossil fuels, the focus of COP28
For Latin America, the conference highlighted differences between countries with ambitious proposals for an accelerated transition to renewable energy, such as Colombia, and others with plans to continue fossil fuel development, such as Brazil. However, they all agreed that more funding was needed to further reduce their emissions.
The region has about 15% of the world's oil and natural gas resources and less than 1% of the world's coal resources. These include large reserves of shale gas, some of which are actively exploited in Argentina, which is positioning itself as a gas exporter. Brazil, Venezuela and Colombia are among the main exporters of fossil fuels.
Oil drilling platform in Vaca Muerta, Neuquén Province, Argentine Patagonia. Latin America has around 15% of the world's oil and natural gas resources (Image: Titus Moser / Alamy)
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil and gas production in Latin America increased by around 5% in 2022 and is expected to grow this year. This is happening despite the enormous opportunities in solar and wind energy. The main obstacle is funding, the IEA said, which must double by 2030 to meet announced climate commitments.
Gustavo Petro, President of Colombia, stressed at the COP the urgency of transitioning to a bloc that promotes a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty that ends exploration and expansion. However, he clarified that to move forward with the plan, the country should look for alternative sources of financing that would allow it to offset oil exports.
“There are already multi-year production contracts and others have been signed for exploration. But we don’t want it to expand further,” Petro said. “We need to replace fossil currencies with a different type of activity. And what we find in the short term is the natural diversity of Colombia. From the snow of the Caribbean to the jungle, the desert and the great Andes.”
At the other extreme was Lula de Silva, the president of Brazil. While he was seen as a climate leader at COP27 a year ago, taking the place of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the reality in Dubai was different. Lula was asked about Brazil's plans to expand fossil fuel use, launch a tender for 600 new exploration areas and join OPEC+ as an observer during the conference.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at COP28. The South American president was asked about Brazil's oil expansion plans (Image: Mahmoud Khaled / COP28, CC BY NC SA)
For Peri Dias, representative of the NGO 350.org, Brazil could have been the frontrunner at COP28, given the success Lula has achieved in reducing deforestation rates in the Amazon by almost 50% since his inauguration in January his positions on fossil fuels worked against him. “In the eyes of the world, the result [para Brasil] “It was a nil-nil win or a lackluster win at best,” Dias added.
The challenges of the transition
A report presented at the COP by environmental organizations and energy experts concluded that most Latin American countries will need to abandon fossil fuels over the next decade to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. For example, Brazil should stop in 2034 and natural gas in 2031 and Mexico in 2037 and 2033.
It's not necessarily an impossible goal. Investment in renewable energy in the region has increased by an average of 10% each year over the past decade and will provide nearly 100 GW of wind and solar capacity in 2022. In Latin America, there are around 320 wind and solar projects in the pipeline and around 200 are in the pre-construction or construction phase.
“The agreement at COP28 shows that fossil fuels are on the decline. Latin America has many opportunities to transform its energy sector and countries like Chile and Uruguay have already done so,” said Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis, climate analyst. “The problem is financing, we are the ones who get the least climate money.”
According to a report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean presented at the COP, investments of between 3.7% and 4.9% of regional GDP per year will be required by 2030 to meet Latin America's climate commitments. For comparison: in 2020, climate finance in the region was only 0.5% of regional GDP.
Latin America has many opportunities to transform its energy sector… The problem is financing
The next climate conference will take place in Azerbaijan in November 2024. With the country generating two-thirds of its revenue from oil and gas, discussions about the energy transition will certainly continue to take center stage. Then it's Latin America's turn: Brazil will host the COP30 in the city of Belén in 2025.
“The planet is like a middle-aged person who discovers that he has diabetes, cholesterol and blood pressure, and the doctor tells him that he needs to change his habits to improve and prolong his quality of life.” “We have a diagnosis , now we have to fight the symptoms,” said Manuel Jaramillo, general director of the Wildlife Foundation of Argentina.
This text is a partnership between Diálogo Chino and Mongabay and was produced as part of the Climate Change Media Partnership 2023, a journalism fellowship organized by Internews' Earth Journalism Network and the Stanley Center for Peace and Security.