For years, the Dodgers have seemed like the world’s easiest puzzle to solve, with extra pieces in reserve in case one didn’t fully fit. The lineup elicited comparisons to all-time greats, and for good reason.
Their pitching staff was so overstocked they signed a quality starter to serve as their long man to open last season. While no one expected the club to win 111 games, it wasn’t a surprise, either.
“With our team,” a soaked Mookie Betts said last September, looking around the clubhouse that clinched the division by 22 games, “we’re capable of it.”
That team has undergone a shift this winter. The 100-piece jigsaw puzzle is now a complex tangram, one that still boasts some brilliant pieces but creates a different picture. The new challenge can be invigorating. It also, understandably, has put the near-automatic dominance of the last decade into a different context.
“Way less turnkey,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said when evaluating the feel of this roster.
Justin Turner is no longer a lineup stalwart. Shortstop is no longer manned by a $300 million man, as Corey Seager and Trea Turner left in consecutive offseasons — and former top prospect Gavin Lux tore his ACL early this spring. Cody Bellinger’s tenure in Los Angeles reached its conclusion in a far different fashion than expected when he won the National League MVP three years ago. There was no injection of a marquee free agent, as the Dodgers had experienced over each of the last three winters. Instead, the Dodgers will include three rookies on their Opening Day roster, with more expected to play roles over the course of the next few months. Their veterans, from Noah Syndergaard and JD Martinez to Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller, bring more questions than usual.
For years a darling for projection systems (and for good reason), the Dodgers aren’t even projected to win their own division, according to FanGraphs.
“For me, I don’t really care,” Friedman said, quick to point to years past. “We’ve had years where we’ve been more obviously good in spring training, and other years where it’s not as obvious, but it played out where we were and we’re confident in this group and what it’s capable of.”
That includes, Friedman said, a 2019 group that introduced rookies such as Will Smith, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin and went on to win a then-franchise record 106 games.
The Dodgers see a wave that includes infielders Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch, outfielder James Outman and starters Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller, and see a way to exceed those projections while lining up the next iteration of a championship core — a difficult ask, but a transition the organization has navigated before.
“You can go out and buy all you want,” Freddie Freeman said, he himself an import who headlined the Dodgers’ winter a year ago. “But you still need an influx of young guys to come up, and the Dodgers are able to do it.”
It’ll be used to maintain a gap that appears on paper to have closed, with Peter Seidler’s spending deepening a Padres club that already knocked the Dodgers out of the postseason a year ago, now boasts the likes of Xander Bogaerts and will add Fernando Tatis Jr. after a year of injury and suspension.
FanGraphs’ Roster Resource projections have the Dodgers getting outspent by the club that’s served as a little brother, in what would’ve been a shocking reality even just a few months ago.
“It actually makes me happy as a baseball fan,” Freeman said of San Diego’s spending spree. “Owners going for it. I love people going for it. We’re all in a competition to win, and when people not just in uniform are trying to win… it’s exciting.”
But as a Dodger?
“We’re not competing against the Padres,” Freeman replied. “We’re competing against ourselves.
“If you’re worried about other teams, that’s probably the wrong outlook you should have. … Projections, all that stuff, means nothing to me.”
You can count Freeman as someone who won’t click over to that projections tab, regardless of where his club falls.
“How can you predict baseball?” he said. “I’m sure (everyone) projected us to win the World Series last year going into the playoffs because we won 111 games. You can’t project anything in this sport. You can’t.”
So he, like others in the organization, remain bullish on what should be a heated race. Freeman will highlight the likes of Vargas, who will open as the second everyday baseman and who Freeman said has a hit tool that is “one I haven’t seen in a long time.” Manager Dave Roberts will note the strides Pepiot and Grove have made this spring with an almost childlike giddiness. Outman’s explosive camp has been the talk of the organization.
For as much as Friedman and general manager Brandon Gomes have expressed caution and been wary of the volatility that comes with introducing such a new-look roster that bakes in a possibility for some excitement.
“I think it’s a different type of club,” Roberts said, “but I still love our club.”
(Photo of Miguel Vargas: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)