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Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech is broadcast on a video screen in Moscow (photo from February 23, 2024). © Imago/Vadim Savitsky/Itar-Tass
No one can see what's in Putin's head. However, US President Biden recently made a conjecture and called him a “crazy bastard”. But what image does the Kremlin leader himself pursue?
Moscow – The war in Ukraine has been going on for two years. Apparently, the tide is turning for Russia: a lack of ammunition and declining Western support are weakening Ukraine. More recently, Moscow won a symbolic victory by taking Avdiivka – just in time for the upcoming presidential elections in March. Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly portraying himself as the unpredictable ruler he is perceived to be in the West.
Is Putin's image of strength tarnished by Wagner's revolt and Navalny's death?
It takes a lot to be publicly labeled a “crazy bastard” by a US president who is well-versed in diplomacy. That’s what happened at a campaign rally this week, when Joe Biden literally called the Russian president a “crazy son of a bitch.” After two years of war, Putin has fully embraced the “image of an unpredictable strongman” who is ready to escalate his conflict with the West, commented Anton Troianovski, editorial director of the New York Times' Moscow bureau, in an article on Friday. -fair.
This is not the first time that Putin has been described as a so-called “strongman” by US media outlets. Literally translated, this means a strong or muscular man, but the term is often equated with the name of a dictator.
But in the past, the Russian president has been accused of weakness on several occasions. After the death of Russian opposition hope Alexei Navalny became known, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it “only underlines the weakness and rot at the heart of the system that Putin built.” The riot was a turning point: until then, Putin still enjoyed the image of an intelligent, manipulative and strong man who skillfully protected his opportunities, analyzed Foreign Policy.
Regarding Wagner's revolt, Putin promised retaliation for this “knife in the back”. This angered many Russians, Foreign Policy said in June. “Putin has been weakened forever by this case,” said former US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, commenting on the riot on CNN.
Does the riot still have an impact? “I haven’t seen Putin so confident in a long time.”
But the mutiny seems to have been long forgotten, Prigozhin is dead, and the war in Ukraine has recently developed increasingly in Russia's favor. During a speech last December, the Kremlin chief acted accordingly and also criticized NATO. “I haven’t seen Putin as self-confident and full of strength as he was at this press conference for a long time”, analyzed former NATO general Erhard Bühler in his podcast “What to do, General?” at the high. This behavior is also having an impact in Russia, Bühler continued. Military expert Sönke Neitzel added that Putin was apparently sure that timing was working out for him. Neitzel also alluded to the West's laborious and hesitant delivery of arms.
Russia has weakened internally: labor shortages and war fatigue
At least Russia's internal political weakness provides grounds for cautious optimism: the economy suffers from labor shortages, the population is shrinking, and, according to Western estimates, some 350,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured so far. . The word war fatigue is probably also familiar to the Russian population. This was expressed most recently by the protest of women and mothers who called on Moscow to bring their husbands and sons home from war.
Likewise, the thousands of people who queued for hours in the cold to give their signature to opposition and war opponent Boris Nadezhdin. This is an opportunity for many people to “express their dissatisfaction” “without fear of being arrested […] have to have,” student Ivan Semyonov, 19, told the AFP news agency.
According to his opponent Nadezhdin, Putin's power is weaker than it seems at first glance. The security, stability and increased prosperity that have long been Putin's selling point after the chaos of the 1990s are all disappearing, the opposition figure said, according to the New York Times, adding: “ This regime is historically doomed to failure.”
Elections in Russia: Opposition members call for action “at noon against Putin”.
But it is said that those who are said to be dead live longer. Nadezhdin was not allowed to vote, Putin's re-election is certain. “The elections – and Vladimir Putin’s high result in these elections – are intended to legitimize Putin’s policies and the “special military operation” through elections,” Kremlin loyalist Konstantin Remchukov said in a telephone interview with the New York Times . If Putin received 70 or 80 percent of the vote, it would mean approval of this policy, Remchukov said.
Although the Kremlin chief has the economy, the media and the electoral system under his control, there is a crucial weak point: Putin's legitimacy, commented Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky in a recent Bild article. The solution: The West must show firmness and must not recognize the presidency or only recognize it belatedly, demanded the opposition. However, he appealed to the people of Russia to participate in the “Lunch Against Putin” protest on March 17.