By Nayara Tardo
Latin press correspondent in Ecuador
On August 20, Ecuadorians went to the polls to also elect the vice president and members of parliament in unprecedented early elections. The new elections came amid an escalation in violence caused by organized crime and social neglect.
Eight candidates were in the race for first magistrate, including Luisa González of the Correísta civil revolution movement; former Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner of the Let's Act Alliance; Jan Topic from the Coalition For a Country Without Fear and the young Daniel Noboa from National Democratic Action.
Yaku Pérez from the Alliance Claro que se puede also took part; Xavier Hervas of the Total Renewal Movement (RETO); the journalist Christian Zurita, who replaced the murdered Fernando Villavicencio; and Bolívar Armijos from the Amigo group.
A BLOODY ELECTION CAMPAIGN
Voting in this South American country came amid a wave of insecurity that even cost the life of presidential candidate Villavicencio on August 9 when hitmen riddled him with bullets as he left a rally.
The event impacted the national political scene and raised questions about possible changes in the electoral board several days before the vote.
For the leader of the civic organization National Citizen Assembly (ANC), Pablo Iturralde, the assassination of Villavicencio was planned due to the possibility that oligarchic groups could lose to the movement's progressive candidate (first in the polls up to that point) Luisa González. Citizen Revolution (RC), led by former President Rafael Correa (2007–2017).
According to Iturralde, the major private media portrayed the crime “with particular attention to the complaints and confrontations against Correism,” which contributed to the idea that the RC was responsible for these events.
Against this background, the candidates focused their campaigns on offers to combat the increase in crime and organized crime, the main concern of citizens suffering from murders, robberies, assaults, kidnappings, extortion and other crimes.
RESULTS LEADING TO THE UNEXPECTED BALLOON
As envisaged in the election schedule, the August 20 elections took place amid a government-imposed state of emergency, with approximately 100,000 police and military personnel stationed on the streets and at polling stations.
However, the voting results led to an unexpected runoff between RC candidate Luisa González and ADN's Daniel Noboa.
González, who finished first with nearly 33 percent, had the highest voting intentions in the polls and was competing with the possibility of winning without a second round, while the other seven candidates fought for a spot in the eventual runoff.
Few expected Noboa, a 35-year-old former lawmaker and businessman, to be the other contender in the crucial contest; He followed the winner of the first phase with 24 percent of the vote.
After the assassination of candidate Villavicencio, the electoral scenario changed and those executive candidates who promised a tougher hand against crime and organized crime began to prevail.
Noboa was not among them. The big boost to his candidacy came after the televised presidential debate on August 13, when he appeared confident and spoke confidently, propelling him to the position in the second round.
Former President Correa explained at the time that in the elections there would be two models that would face each other: the business model promoted by Noboa and the popular and bourgeois model of González.
This time we didn't make it
This time we did not succeed, said former President Correa on October 15, expressing his regret at the defeat of González, when he received 47.79 percentage points, compared to 52.21 percent of the valid votes that Noboa received.
Correa denounced that Villavicencio's assassination influenced the results because the event prevented the victory of the citizen revolution, he said.
On that day, after more than 90 percent of the minutes were counted by the National Electoral Council (CNE), the representative of the National Democratic Action Alliance (ADN) and son of one of the richest businessmen in the country was elected the youngest elected president of Ecuador.
The victory affected the sectors that had joined the RC led by Correa, with the hope of resuming a progressive course for the nation, which, in addition to the wave of violence, is also suffering from economic problems.
However, González himself offered the elected president that he could count on the RC to rebuild the country, but stressed that their votes in the National Assembly would not accept proposals such as the privatization of healthcare or education.
SHORT-TERM CHALLENGES IN ECUADOR
Since last October, Noboa will have about 16 months to put the country, which has been hit by numerous crises, back in order, although many believe his proposals are far from ideal.
His government raises great expectations, although experts believe that the conservative and oligarchic model will prevail in his leadership.
For the sociologist and communicator Irene León, her project is neoliberal, commercial, it aims to occupy the space of the state for its commercial purposes and its arrival at the Carondelet Palace, seat of the executive, undoubtedly says where the country wants to go go next year. one and a half, he emphasized to Prensa Latina.
León believes that “Noboa came to power through political “marketing,” i.e.
The wave of insecurity in Ecuador is the biggest challenge for Noboa, which this year has hosted a country with more than six thousand murders, including a presidential candidate, mayors and officials.
The young businessman announced that he would implement a so-called Phoenix plan, which consists of creating a single intelligence center and equipping the national police and armed forces with weapons and technology.
But so far Noboa's only action has been to remove part of the police and military leadership, and so far he has not even appointed an interior minister, and the person in charge of the department is the head of government, Mónica Palencia.
During his campaign, Noboa also spoke of introducing barge prisons for the most dangerous inmates, an idea that was considered virtually impossible, largely because of their high costs.
He recently announced that he would implement prison reform starting in January, citing a lack of control in the country's penitentiaries.
Although he did not give details of the changes in the penitentiary system, he indicated that prison transformation would begin from the first half of next month and reiterated that foreign prisoners will be “immediately expelled from the country” to achieve this more order in the prisons.
On the other hand, this Andean country is in an energy crisis after years of no investment in this sector and it will be up to Noboa to face the darkness of the blackouts and find a solution.
By the way, the head of the executive branch sent an urgent bill to the legislature to deal with the situation in the electricity sector.
The so-called Energy Competitiveness Law project suggests that the crisis in the electricity sector will cause economic losses of more than 600 million dollars by the end of the year, which is why the government initiative proposes reforms of other regulations and proposes the creation of an energy efficiency fund, savings actions, projects for the replacement of systems, machines and devices.
Previously, Parliament had approved Noboa's first urgent bill, which represents a tax reform that, among other things, provides for the waiver of fines, interest and surcharges for taxpayers who pay off all debts to the tax office. Internal Affairs (SRI) until the regulation comes into force, planned for 2024.
Analysts believe that although the passage of the law represents a political victory for the government and shows the possibility of dialogue, it does not resolve the severe financial crisis that Ecuador is currently experiencing.
Various trade union organizations rejected this economic proposal and described its approval in the National Assembly as a betrayal, based on misleading arguments that it only benefits the major power groups, including the companies of President Noboa and his family.
According to a study by the polling institute Comunicaliza, 37 percent of Ecuadorians are hopeful about the country's future, while 41 percent remain optimistic.
However, there is little light on how the young President Noboa will in practice address such major problems, which, analysts and citizens claim, cannot be solved in just over a year.
arc/nta