Extreme heat waves coming in India and Pakistanwhere this time of year usually reaches 40ºC, this year brings temperatures Superior to the norm. forecasts? The records of 51 degrees in 2016 in India and through 53.50 degrees 2010 in Pakistan. accomplice of climate change that on the other side of the world, in Californiabrings with it drought and inconvenience, but above all has devastating effects more fragile countries. Even these days, India and Pakistan have to face different issues emergencieslike water scarcity, right now that India was aiming to export that Grain to alleviate the shortage of it caused by the war Ukraine. And then there is the growth of inquiry energywith the simultaneous dramatic increase in the use of fans and for those who can afford it, by hair conditionerresulting in frequent power outages across India and the outbreak of fires in the landfills open sky of megacities. Temperatures have surpassed 45C in several areas of India and the Indian Meteorological Agency warns they should rise again in the coming days. “There are a number of conditional reasons, such as some climatic variability which is natural, but also global warming. In reality, mean temperatures are increasing in the range of more Mediterranean Sea-except that in countries like India and Pakistan, temperatures are already close to the threshold of tolerance“He explains Antonello PasiniClimatologist physicist at the Cnr.
The climatologist and physicist Pasini: “Vulnerable areas of climate migration” – “From this point of view, there are several areas that concern me – he adds – such as Afghanistan and neighboring countries, where the waves from drought have begun to exist for years and where, in addition to political issues, climate change could lead to new ones migration waves“. How it happened Syriawhere drought has worsened to record levels due to global warming, causing the social unrest and caused them to lead to the revolt that began in 2011, which in turn led to an expanded civil war Step International.
The heat suffocating India and Pakistan – As for India and Pakistan, “we are in the season before that of monsoonWhich will bring a wind change in June rainfallbut also tropical cyclones and typhoons. “Before this happens,” explains Pasini, “the heat waves in April and May are typical.” Those of 2010, 2015, 2019 and 2021 were particularly severe. On the other hand, heat waves in India since 2010 have killed more than 6,500 people. “This year – points out the CNR climatologist – they seem to have started a month earlier than usual and with greater intensity”. Accordingly, India experienced the hottest March in 122 years Meteorological Department and the heat waves in April, during the ramadan, they make fasting even more difficult. During these days the thermometer has reached 47.5°C Navabshahin Pakistan and the next could reach 48 in some rural areas Sindwhile in the Indian capital, home to 30 million people, New Delhi42 degrees and I were exceeded meteorological services expected to reach 46 °C. Barmer has already registered 45 degrees. Heatwaves have hit fifteen federated states in India, particularly in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, according to the Center for Science and Environment (CSE). Also at night temperatures They never drop much below 30 degrees. And between India and Pakistan, we’re talking about areas where 10 percent of the world population and where most citizens live without air conditioning.
What causes intense heat waves (despite La Niña) – There are mutliple reasons for this. “In March there was little rain – Pasini explains – and the soil is drier, releasing less humidity to the air, which warms up earlier when it is dry. Fewer heat waves were expected this year, partly because of the flu there Nina“. The phenomenon leads to a Cooling (instead of heating up like El Niño does) the temperature the surface waters ofPacific Ocean central and east. “It’s a natural cycle that happens every 5-7 years and affects what’s happening in different areas of the world planet. Lower temperatures were expected in India and for this reason it is all the more surprising that intense heat waves are occurring”. The reasons? “On the one hand the natural variability of the climate, on the other hand we are talking about heat waves the global warming anthropogenic origin, more and more frequent and stronger”.
What’s happening in California – Even if it is one location differentwhat is happening in is also linked to climate change California where, because of the extended droughtsome immediate measures were introduced to reduce water consumption. Measures affecting around 6 million people. “Climate change increases that temperature Average – explains Pasini – but also the circulation of the air that moves from the equator to the North Pole to remove the heat and energy of the atmosphere. These large displacements of air masses create turbulent movements: the air does not warm up slowly, but the heat waves arrive violently”. That phenomenon this also includes Europe and Italy. “If the air previously moved more slowly along the parallels, we think of the anticyclone of the Azores that came fromAtlantic and it was milder – adds the climatologist – now African anticyclones are moving from south to north and vice versa, causing sudden changes in temperature”.
The Impact on More Fragile Countries – All of this has devastating effects on territories already vulnerable from an economic, social and climate change adaptation perspective. And then there is a fundamental question: India and Pakistan are already registering higher temperatures compared to those of the Mediterranean. “In fact, Italy has warmed by an average of two degrees over the past hundred years, but a recent report by the Indian Meteorological Service – says Pasini – found that the country has warmed by about 0.8 degrees over the same period. C , so much less than us “. That problem is that in areas of the world like India and Pakistan, from higher temperatures “it takes very little to reach the physiological tolerance threshold”. In the coming days in some areas i 50 Degree and the monsoon season will not arrive until early June, including from the southIndia and include only a few at a time northern part. “In these areas, if there was no water running down therehimalayan – adds the CNR climatologist and physicist – it wouldn’t even be possible Agriculture“. And that’s one of the problems.
Water scarcity versus grain needed in times of war – Many regions report one defect waterdestined to gain weight until the first rain and which will hit the hardest farmers. There couldn’t be a worse time for grain farmers as India looks to step up exports help, a global shortage because of the war in Ukraine. Instead, farmers (who make up 40% of India’s labor force) are currently forced to use water thrift. Not to mention the problems that can arise as a result health publicly. Another problem is related to the fact that is India’s main source of electricity Money: The supply of the thermoelectric plants is insufficient compared to growing need of energy. And how the use of fans and – only for those who can afford it – Indian state air conditioners RajasthanGujarat andAndhra Pradesh they have imposed blackouts factories. In the meantime, in New Delhi alone, record heat has caused four landfill fires in the metropolis within a month, with devastating consequences in the neighboring areas.
What to expect – What is happening is a foretaste of what will happen sooner or later Italy? “We already had ours tastings – explains Pasini – because the anticyclones that were previously permanently in the desert Sahara Desertnow they come in Mediterranean Sea-bring great heat and drought”. Just think of the 48 degrees last summer Sicily. Not only that: “When they drive into themAfricabecause they do not yet have the strength to stay on the Mediterranean, cold currents come from the north, which, coming into a warm and humid area, bring them with them extreme events oppositeslike flash floods and grains of hail as big as tennis balls. You are the two faces of the same medalbut our territory is far from ready to manage this kind of events“.