Published: 18.03.2022 – 18:32
Finland’s NATO membership, unthinkable twenty years ago, is becoming more and more plausible. A turning point in the foreign policy of this Scandinavian country, which for a long time carefully avoided confrontation with its Russian neighbor.
This is a historic shift in public opinion in Finland. According to a poll released this week, 62% of the population say they are in favor of joining NATO. Two weeks ago, another poll for the first time gave an absolute majority (53%) to this membership in the Western military alliance, a jump of almost 25 points since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Within the political class, discussion is open, and the question of Finland’s sacred neutrality seems increasingly marginal in the current security context. From the very beginning of the attack, led by Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced that she was going to supply weapons to Ukraine, something that had never happened before in this Scandinavian country, which is not militarily aligned but is a member of the European Union.
President Sauli Niinistö, however, recently urged his fellow citizens to remain “cool” on the issue. “Public opinion in a country that has recently been ruled by two Atlanticist parties, namely the National Coalition and the Social Democrats, is in a state of turmoil,” explains Maurice Carrès, professor at the Strasbourg Department of Science, which France 24 has joined. “But the President of Finland reminded us, that we should avoid acting under the influence of emotions,” adds the director of the Nordic History magazine.
Russian warnings
Keeping a cool head on Finland and its 5.5 million inhabitants, however, is proving to be a challenge as Russian threats become more specific.
“We often receive warnings from Russia to Sweden and Finland. For example, in early March, four Russian fighter jets violated Swedish airspace during an exercise by the Swedish and Finnish armies on the island of Gotland. [la plus grande île de Suède située en mer Baltique]”, – recalls Chiara Ruffa, a professor at the Swedish Defense University, about the France 24 antenna. “However, no one believes in the hypothesis of an impending attack, but now it is clear that it will be necessary to prepare for this,” the researcher adds.
“The movement of Russian troops near the borders of the Baltic countries also played a role in this unrest, which actually dates back to 2014,” says Maurice Carrez.
Indeed, with the annexation of Crimea and the rise of Russia in the Baltic Sea, Finland’s mistrust of Moscow has grown in recent years. Therefore, the country has pledged to modernize its military and stepped up initiatives to move closer to NATO, but without joining it.
Memories of the Winter War
This fear of a Russian attack also has its roots in the history of World War II. A significant event in the collective memory remains the invasion of its territory by the Red Army in 1939, limited in the east by more than 1300 kilometers of the border with Russia. During this “Winter War”, the Finns put up fierce resistance to the Russian cannibal, losing more than 80,000 soldiers.
If the country became independent on December 6, 1917 after being ruled by the Russian Empire for more than a century, it was World War II that served as the founding myth for the Finnish nation, Maurice Carres explains.
“After independence, there was a terrible civil war, and the entire interwar period was marked by conflict between reds and whites. But during the Winter War [guerre russo-finlandaise durant l’hiver 39-40], part of this division has disappeared. Today, Finns rather remember this event as the one that marked the birth of Finland, ”the historian analyzes.
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After the Cold War, Finland adopted a cautious policy so as not to upset Moscow. In the spring of 1948, Helsinki signed a “treaty of friendship” and cooperation with Moscow.
“Finland did not become neutral because it lost the war to the Soviet Union in 1944,” says Maurice Carres, however. forced neutrality associated with the presence of a very powerful state on its border, ”explains an expert on Finland.
Pros and cons
After the collapse of the USSR, Finland logically settled in the West and joined the European Union in 1995, but chose to remain outside NATO. Like Sweden, the country is not officially an ally, despite being an alliance partner.
However, the war in Ukraine is changing the situation. “Experts talk about a relatively fast accession process because the military capabilities of Sweden and Finland are well known and there is a very high level of interoperability, since the two countries have participated in many joint missions with NATO,” said Chiara Ruffa.
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On the Finnish side, the issue is to be considered in parliament in April, after a report on the “benefits and risks” of such an option.
The main interest for the country will be to take advantage of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. But “does NATO offer real protection? It can also be counterproductive,” says Maurice Carres, who stresses the importance of the ties that unite Russia with Finland, which has a large Russian-speaking community.
Crossing the Rubicon would also mean undermining economic relations with Moscow, an important trading partner that supplies it with almost all of its gas. According to Eurostat, 97% of Finland’s natural gas imports come from Russia.