The first wave of NFL free agency featured a dizzying array of moves, including the Cincinnati Bengals landing a new left tackle, the Las Vegas Raiders blasting another shot at a quarterback, the Denver Broncos reshuffling their roster , and the Philadelphia Eagles, who (some of them) kept the band together.
There’s still plenty of offseason left, but here are some takeaways from what we’ve seen from the free agent market so far:
1. The Cincinnati Bengals hit a home run with the signing of Orlando Brown Jr.
Before free agency started, I figured Brown would find a $23 million-a-year deal. I wasn’t the only one who set the bar high for him. Former agent Joel Corry, who does an excellent job of analyzing the market, suggested in a CBSSports.com column that Brown’s deal would be close to four years, $94 million with $51.5 million Dollars that are fully guaranteed. The reasoning was simple. Young, durable, above-average left tackles rarely make it onto the open market, and when they do, they make money. Brown has missed just one game in his five-year career, and he will be just 27 at the start of the 2023 season.
But Brown didn’t find the deal he was looking for, and his price dropped – significantly. A big part of free decision-making, for both teams and players, is having a B, C, and D plan. Teams go into the offseason with goals they want to achieve. But the market can be unpredictable, and teams that can adapt can find an advantage. In Brown’s case, it was actually his agent who approached the Bengals about a potential deal, according to The Athletic. The two sides agreed to a four-year, $64.09 million ($16.02 million per year) deal with a $31 million full guarantee. That makes Brown the 10th highest-paid left tackle in the NFL. The deal looks even better for the Bengals after Laremy Tunsil reset the market Monday with an extension from the Texans that will pay him $25 million a year.
Brown has his weaknesses, particularly in the way athletic edge rushers can give him problems with pass protection. But O-Line guru Brandon Thorn had Brown on the market as his top tackle and his eighth-ranked left tackle overall. Age and durability also play a major role here. Having all-pros is great, but often building an offensive line is about not having a weak link. Based on history, the Bengals can reasonably expect Brown to be on the field for them for most of this contract. And when he’s playing at a slightly above-average level, this signing is a big win for a team whose offensive line has been an issue in recent postseasons.
A week ago, it looked like the Bengals’ options for landing a long-term left tackle would be limited. Jonah Williams has not played great and is entering the final year of his contract. The Bengals needed a plan for 2024 and beyond to protect Joe Burrow. That could have meant signing an option for Band-Aid veterans, trading in for a left tackle, or trying to get one in the draft. But all of those options would have come with a lot more uncertainty than Brown’s signing.
The Bengals didn’t plan to spend big on a left tackle, but when the opportunity to add Brown presented themselves, they pounced. If we consider quarterback, wide receiver and left tackle as prime offensive positions, the Bengals could be in the best form of any team in the NFL with Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase both of whom are set to receive massive new contracts in the near future and Brown.
The Bengals lost some key defensive figures in the Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell safeties. Offensive efficiency is easier to maintain than defensive efficiency, however, and the Bengals were third in offensive DVOA last season. Maintaining an elite offense year after year is the best way for Cincinnati to keep its Super Bowl window open. By adding Brown to a reasonable contract, the Bengals increased their chances of improving an already strong offense. Even if the Bengals don’t make another signing for the remainder of the offseason, they must once again be viewed as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
2. Sean Payton has no intention of letting Russ cook.
The Broncos were surprise backers during the first wave of free agency. They signed the following players:
- OT Mike McGlinchey for five years, $87.5 million
- DT Zach Allen for three years, $45.75 million
- Guarding Ben Powers for four years, $52 million
- LB Alex Singleton for three years, $18 million
- QB Jarrett Stidham for two years, $10 million
- RB Samaje Perine for two years, $7.5 million
- TE Chris Manhertz for two years, $6 million
McGlinchey’s forte is run blocking, not pass protection. Strength comes from the run-heavy Ravens. And Manhertz is a blocking tight end.
One of Payton’s strengths as a coach is his ability to look at his roster, adjust it and decide how to give his team the best chance of winning. We saw that in the latter stages of Drew Brees’ career in New Orleans, when Payton helped design an offense around a quarterback with limited arm strength. We saw it when Brees missed time through injury and the Saints won games with Taysom Hill as quarterback because of their defense and special teams.
It really looks like Payton is telling us what he thinks is the best way to win with Wilson – and that is to limit what Wilson needs to do. Payton wants to run the ball efficiently (the Broncos were 26th in the Rushing DVOA last year), and he wants to win with defensive and special teams.
The Stidham addition was particularly intriguing. This felt less like an “If Wilson Goes Down” signature and more like an “If Wilson Can’t Be Repaired” signature. Would you really be surprised to wake up Wednesday before Week 7 to a Jay Glazer tweet that reads: Jarrett Stidham is expected to take over as first-team representative for the Broncos in practice today? I did not think.
The Broncos only have two picks in the top 100 of this year’s draft, so I understand why they felt they needed to be aggressive in the free hand. But I think maybe they were a bit too aggressive and I’m skeptical these moves will work. Free agency history suggests they’ll have more hits than misses in this bunch. More than anything, though, I’m intrigued by what Payton will (or won’t) ask of Wilson on this offense and whether Wilson buys in full. It’s already one of the biggest storylines of the 2023 season.
3. There are red flags everywhere at Josh McDaniels’ Las Vegas Raiders.
Taken in isolation, there’s nothing egregious about the moves the Raiders have been making of late. Her commitment to Jimmy Garoppolo is essentially one year for $33.75 million (the full guarantee amount). That’s pretty much in line with deals for guys at the same QB level as Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins. The Raiders also signed wide receiver Jakobi Meyers for three years, $33 million, which is reasonable for a starting wide receiver.
But zooming out, my question is: what exactly is the Raiders’ plan? Last offseason, when McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler first arrived, they skipped a conversion and went into win-now mode, trading for wide receiver Davante Adams and signing rim-back Chandler Jones. They finished 6-11 and Carr was abruptly sent home in December. According to The Athletic’s Vic Tafur, the Raiders’ leadership didn’t feel that Carr was culturally unfit.
So what culture is McDaniels trying to build? He is now 17-28 (.378 win percentage) as head coach. McDaniels has directed four offenses outside of New England in his career. These units have placed 18th, 17th, 32nd and 17th in the DVOA. The lowest category for the Raiders in a recent NFLPA poll was their coaching staff. Respondents noted that McDaniels listened to his players less than other head coaches.
In signing Garoppolo, Meyers and even Jones last year, McDaniels chose familiar faces from his New England days. But what is the Raiders’ vision? They could have attempted to trade Carr last offseason and they would have accumulated draft capital rather than acting for Adams. Adams played great last year, but the extra picks would have given the Raiders more resources to find a long-term answer at quarterback.
Instead, they ride with Garoppolo hoping he starts 10+ games for the third time in his career. They’ll also hope McDaniels can uncover the same efficient version of Garoppolo we saw under Kyle Shanahan. This feels like a stretch.
Maybe there are still a few moves left for the Raiders, and it’s possible I’ll feel differently after the draft. But for now, signs surrounding McDaniels suggest he may face the same known flaws we’ve seen with other former Bill Belichick assistants.
4. The Lions should go after Lamar Jackson.
As of last Wednesday, teams were allowed to contact Jackson, but as of this writing we have not heard a single report of a team interested in the Ravens’ QB. There are legitimate reasons teams wouldn’t want to do this — signing Jackson would require a significant financial investment for a quarterback who has missed 10 games in the past two seasons. You also have to give up two first-round picks. Even then, the Ravens could keep up with the offer, and you could be left with nothing.
But if there’s one team that needs to organize at least one meeting, it’s the Lions. Jared Goff played well last year, but we now have seven seasons’ worth of evidence telling us who Goff is. If the circumstances (play-calling, offensive line, weapons) are favorable, he can certainly run an efficient offensive. But he doesn’t offer the same advantage as Jackson.
It’s fair to point out that the Ravens’ passing game had disagreements with Jackson, but he was absolutely a lift for Baltimore. According to TruMedia, the Ravens with Jackson over the past three seasons have proven to be the NFL’s sixth-best offensive line in terms of expected points per game. Without him they played like the offensive in 31st place.
Lions fans, imagine a version of Jackson running and throwing from behind that excellent offensive line. A lean towards Amon-Ra St. Brown that turns into an explosive game. A bomb downfield to Jameson Williams for a 50-yard TD. A microphone clip of Dan Campbell telling Jackson he loves him after a game-winning run at Lambeau Field. Can’t you just see Jackson in that blue Honolulu uniform?
The Lions have built their roster properly. If the season started today, they would likely be favorites in the NFC North. But the conference is wide open, and every organization strives for sustained success. For the Lions, that means not being risk averse and at least exploring the possibility of adding a former MVP QB.
5. The Eagles have a busy schedule in their 2022 and 2023 draft classes.
Individually, the Eagles appeared to take a number of sensible steps to retain, restructure, and grow their own players:
- Center Jason Kelce on a one-year, $14.25 million deal
- CB James Bradberry on a three-year, $38 million deal
- CB Darius Slay on an extension that includes $23 million guaranteed
- DT Fletcher Cox on a one-year, $10 million deal
- DE Brandon Graham on a one-year, $5 million contract
All were key players during last year’s Super Bowl run, but each of them will be 30 years or older by the start of the 2023 season. Players in this age group tend to see their level of play decrease. Meanwhile, the Eagles face other factors that could lead to a regression. They were the third healthiest team in the NFL last season and also faced the easiest schedule in the league.
So what’s the case for the Eagles to avoid a hangover and fight for a Super Bowl again? They’re bringing back nine of 11 starters for an offense that ranked third in efficiency a year ago. Players like Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are either on the rise or in their prime. But a big key will be whether the Eagles’ first- and sophomore-year players can fill in key gaps after Philly lost the following free-hand starters:
- DT Javon Hargrave (to the 49ers)
- RB Miles Sanders (to the Panthers)
- Guard Isaac Seumalo (to the Steelers)
- LB TJ Edwards (to the Bears)
- LB Kyzir White (to the Cardinals)
- S. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (to the lions)
- S Marcus Epps (to the Raiders)
The Eagles traded defensive tackle Jordan Davis at 13 during last year’s draft. He struggled with injuries and wasn’t a factor as a rookie. Now he’s being called upon to replace Hargrave and make a difference. They drafted center Cam Jurgens with the 51st pick as an eventual replacement for Kelce. But Kelce is back and Jurgens could now be asked to start at guard in place of Seumalo. The Eagles drafted linebacker Nakobe Dean in the third round. He hardly came on the field as a rookie but could be a projected starter even now.
The Eagles also have two first-round picks and four picks in the top 100 in this year’s draft. Their depth will likely be tested further in 2023. It would be helpful if a few novices made meaningful contributions.
As mentioned above, the NFC should be wide open, and the Eagles are better positioned than most of their competitors. But with players aged 30+, you know that not everyone will be able to match last year’s level of play and improvement is highly unlikely. To make up for that, the Eagles need their freshmen and sophomores to close the gap.
Remnants of the first wave
- Among the teams paying quarterbacks, the Seahawks were the big winners. The Geno-Smith deal was originally reported as three years and $105 million. Those numbers were inflated. It was actually three years, $75 million. And even then, Smith is only guaranteed $27.3 million. If he plays well in 2023, the Seahawks can stay with him and he can earn a bigger payday through incentives. But if it doesn’t work out, the Seahawks won’t be committed beyond next season. And nothing’s stopping them from picking a No. 5 quarterback. The Seahawks front office did a great job of maintaining optionality.
- An under-the-radar signing I liked: The Titans sign pass rusher Arden Key to a three-year, $21 million deal. Key can line up on the edge or inside and has shown real improvement over the past two seasons with 11 sacks and 32 QB hits.
- Another one I liked: The Lions signed CB Cameron Sutton to a three-year, $33 million deal. Sutton is 28 years old, can compete on the outside or in the slot and has not missed more than a game in the last four seasons. Detroit has done a good job revamping its high school with sensible signings.
- One signing I didn’t get: The Vikings signed Josh Oliver to a three-year, $21 million deal. Oliver is a blocking tight end, and I’ll readily admit that I have a tendency to block tight ends. He has 26 career catches for 230 yards in 35 career games (11 starts). Oliver could end up being the best blocking tight end the NFL has ever seen. I’m just wondering about the use of resources there. The Vikings traded to TJ Hockenson last season and this draft class is known to be particularly strong at the tight end. With other holes on the roster, it feels like $7 million a year could have been put to better use.
- Another head scratcher: The Giants sign linebacker Bobby Okereke to a four-year, $40 million deal with a $21.8 million guarantee. Okereke is considered a solid starter, but other players in his class — David Long Jr., TJ Edwards, Germaine Pratt — found deals in the $5 million to $7 million a year range. I might be proven wrong, but for Okereke I wouldn’t have felt the need to go that far beyond that.