Donald Trump's time in politics will have been a veritable goldmine for historians and constitutional lawyers.
His numerous escapades and multiple trials will make it possible to better define the contours of the separation of powers and the limits of the president's power.
On Tuesday, an appeals court ruled on presidential immunity claimed by the former president.
A major failure for the Republican candidate
The three judges interviewed concluded that Trump could not avoid his trial over his role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection.
In this case, he will become Citizen Trump again. He can of course enjoy all the rights of a defendant, but he does not enjoy complete immunity.
Many readers are sometimes interested in the alleged ideology of the ruling judges. Two were appointed by Biden and one by Trump. Their decision is unanimous.
What's next? I want to start by pointing out that this is a major victory for Special Counsel Jack Smith and an important confirmation for Judge Tanya Chutkan, who has accused Donald Trump of partisanship.
Donald Trump can now appeal his case to any judge in the relevant federal court, just as he can appeal to the Supreme Court. In both cases, nothing obliges them to agree to the hearing of the case.
The best scenario for the former president would be that the highest court agrees to a decision, but the access to the files or the judgment does not occur until after the election on November 5th.
His nightmare would be that the decision announced on Tuesday would be final and the trial would begin in the coming weeks. Despite all the options available to Trump, we can imagine a decision before November 5th, even if the deadlines are tight. I'm reminded here that according to a recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, 53% of voters in swing states would refuse to vote for the 45th president if he is found guilty.
In both 2016 and 2020, election results in key states were decisive and close. A guilty verdict could deal a fatal blow to Trump.
The Supreme Court will soon be in the spotlight
This Thursday, the Supreme Court will consider the interpretation of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which was used to disqualify Donald Trump in Colorado. His name still appears on the ballot, but the final decision will depend on the court's ruling.
The Republican candidate's lawyers argue that Section 3, which bars a person from running for office if they have participated in an insurrection, clearly identifies certain offices, but that the office of president is not included on the list.
For its part, the lawsuit claims that the term “officer” includes the president. You will be pleased to know that the ruling released Tuesday uses the term “officer” when referring to Trump. An omen?